There was a time when the thought of Erik Karlsson suiting up without a Senators crest on his chest seemed unimaginable. But a year after No. 65 was shipped to San Jose, his successor is showing hints of being just as impactful a player for Ottawa.
Fresh off a breakout 55-point campaign in 2018-19 that earned him a $64-million deal, Thomas Chabot has emerged as more than simply a capable No. 1 option for Ottawa’s back end. The 22-year-old has discovered a knack for rewriting history books and topping blue-line lists like the smooth-skating rearguard who filled that role for the Canadian Tire Centre faithful before him.
Senators fans were offered a reminder of just how far Chabot’s come, and how quickly, on Saturday, when the Sainte-Marie, Que., native notched his 100th career point — earning the century mark by setting up Ottawa’s game-winning goal over the Blue Jackets.
It took Chabot just 166 games to net those 100 points — a pace that ranks him as the fastest Senators defenceman to that sum, narrowly besting Karlsson, who did so in 168 games.
Living up to the lofty legacy Karlsson left in Ottawa is no small feat, with the Swedish phenom of course establishing himself not only among the game’s best blue-liners during his time with the Senators, but as a potential all-timer. So let’s be clear — it’s far too early to tell whether Chabot will get to that level.
But what we can tell is that Chabot’s far from a bargain-bin replacement for his former captain. He’s already established himself not just as a clear-cut No. 1 for the Senators, but as a bona fide elite defenceman in his own right, and on track to net some level of all-world acclaim if he keeps trending as he has so far.
Viewing Karlsson as the defender we came to know, the one who somehow topped the 80-point plateau, and netted multiple 20-goal seasons, it’s tough to remember how he came into the league — as a talented, promising gem on Ottawa’s back end, but not necessarily a potential Hall of Famer. And looking at where Chabot sits compared to Karlsson when the latter was at a similar point in his career, the differences are slim:
Thomas Chabot through 169 career games
Goals: 26
Points: 101
Plus/Minus: -34
Shots: 271
Shooting Percentage: 7.0
Corsi For Percentage: 48.6
Average TOI: 21:55
Erik Karlsson through 169 career games
Goals: 21
Points: 102
Plus/Minus: -37
Shots: 406
Shooting Percentage: 5.2
Corsi For Percentage: 52.7
Average TOI: 22:42
Aside from Karlsson volleying more shots on net during that first slate of games, the two stack up with fairly similar numbers so far — a simplified look at where each stands at this point to be sure, but useful as a zoomed-out view of the roots of Karlsson’s dominance and the similar path Chabot could be on.
Looking closer at each defender’s first two seasons tells a similar story — Karlsson put up 26 points as a rookie, skating an average of 20:07 per night. Chabot posted 25 points in his first go-round while skating an average of 17:31 in Year 1. Those numbers increased to 45 points and 23:31 per night during Karlsson’s sophomore season, while Chabot’s second season — 2018-19 — finished at 55 points through 24:17 per night.
It was in his third NHL campaign that Karlsson became Karlsson, exploding for 78 points, averaging more than 25 minutes per night, and claiming the Norris Trophy for his efforts.
Chabot doesn’t appear on track for as quick an uptick just yet, with the defender on pace for roughly 50 points (currently at 21 points through 35 games). Of course, it’s worth noting Karlsson’s third season came on a playoff-calibre team, and one still stocked with some decent talent — a still-in-his-prime Jason Spezza topping 80 points, Milan Michalek posting 35 goals, a 39-year-old Daniel Alfredsson still good for nearly 30 goals and 60 points.
Chabot’s club is miles behind, with the team’s forward corps scoring currently led by still-unproven names in Anthony Duclair, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Connor Brown.
When it comes to carrying the mail as Ottawa’s leading man, though, there’s no question Chabot’s taken that mantle. He proved as much Tuesday, when the Senators’ tilt against Tampa Bay stretched into overtime.
Chabot logged a monstrous 37:50 minutes in that game — it was not only a franchise record for the most minutes ever amassed by a Senator in one night, but in fact ranks as the second-highest total ever recorded during a regular season NHL game since such stats have been kept (dating back to the 1998-99 season). The only instance of a longer regular-season night? When Dennis Wideman logged 15 more seconds during a game back in 2014 with Calgary.
But that’s been the trend this year for Chabot, the premier talent on a young squad. Three of the top 10 single-game ice-time sums from 2019-20 have his name attached, with Chabot having topped 30 minutes three times already through the first 35 games of this season — after topping 30 minutes exactly zero times last year.
Part of the reason for the shift is simply the state of the team, according to new head coach D.J. Smith. With less talent in the fold this season, the Senators have found themselves trying to fight their way back into games far more often, meaning far more minutes for their star blue-liner.
“You have to remember [Ottawa] played with a lead quite a few times early on last year,” Smith told Sportsnet’s Kyle Bukauskas recently. “When you’re chasing the game as much as we have, he’s going to play a ton of minutes.”
In November, when Bukauskas spoke with Smith, Chabot was leading all NHLers in average ice-time, logging more than 26 minutes per game. While Drew Doughty and Oscar Klefbom have joined him atop that list, each averaging a handful of seconds more each night, the Senators’ top defender remains third in the league in the minute-eating department.
Whether or not Chabot manages to get anywhere near the level Karlsson eventually grew to, it’s clear he’s already staked his claim on the No. 2 spot in Senators history. His record sprint to 100 points suggested as much, and even before he got there, his pace through his first 100 games hinted at it, too, with Chabot’s 62 points through his first 100 tilts also besting Karlsson for a franchise record.
In fact, by the end of this season, Chabot will likely rank among the top five all-time Senators defencemen in points.
His 101 points place him ninth already. At his current pace, he’d add roughly 28 more points by season’s end, taking his career total to 129 — just past Jason York’s 124 for fifth in the history of Sens blue-liners, with Karlsson, Wade Redden, Chris Phillips and Zdeno Chara ahead of him.
Not the most intimidating statistical mountain to climb, but it illustrates where Chabot projects to land when all is said and done. Karlsson-esque league-wide dominance would be sublime, but even if it never comes, Chabot still seems almost certain to finish as the second-most prolific offensive defender to ever wear the club’s jersey — as good a case as any that he’s worth every penny of that $64 million.
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