Stanley Cup Playoff Push: Gap closing between Leafs, Panthers in Atlantic

Chris Johnston spoke to Lead Off about the Toronto Maple Leafs and their offensive struggles as of late, but that it shouldn't be a problem during the playoffs.

With clubs around the league sitting with no more than 15 games left on their schedules, we’ve got two feet firmly planted in the home stretch of the 2019-20 season.

The usual flurry of pre-playoff madness has descended upon the leage too, with nail-biter division title races taking hold in all but one of the four divisions, and plenty of jostling for wild-card spots in both conferences.

So, where do we stand? Let’s check in on the best of each conference’s recent action, and what to watch for on the schedule tonight:

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EASTERN CONFERENCE

If the season ended today…
(A1) Boston vs. (WC2) Carolina
(A2) Tampa Bay vs. (A3) Toronto
(M1) Washington vs. (WC1) Columbus
(M2) Philadelphia vs. (M3) Pittsburgh

Which series would we like to see?
Bolts vs. Leafs would be a high-flying affair, and Capitals vs. Blue Jackets could bring some old-school playoff physicality, but there’s no question the reigniting of the Battle of Pennsylvania would be the series to watch if things shake out as above. The last time these two met was the season before last — a 4-2 Penguins win — but we all remember the legendary series from 2011-12, which featured many of the same core names on either side, and saw some wild final scores (8-5 in Game 2, 8-4 in Game 3, 10-3 in Game 4) before the Flyers clinched it in Game 6. With Philly firing on all cylinders at the moment, there’d be a fair shot at another highly-offensive affair.

What’d I miss last week?
As hinted at above, the Flyers are the story of the East right now. Over the past 10 games, their 9-1 record has launched them into contention for the Metro title. But with their playoff spot seeming all but sealed up, the more intriguing battle of the past 10 games might be the one between the Maple Leafs and Panthers. Both have struggled over that stretch — Toronto has just four wins in their past six, and has lost three straight, while Florida similarly has four wins in that span, with just one of them coming in their past five.

Toronto didn’t help their cause last week, dropping all three games on their California road trip, despite the Sharks, Kings and Ducks all ranking among the five lowest spots in the league-wide standings. The Leafs earned one point in Los Angeles, but allowed Florida — who picked up a few points of their own last week — to close the gap a little bit.

Game to watch tonight: Panthers vs. Blues
Following from above, the Panthers have another chance to shrink that gap even more tonight, though they’ll have a tough opponent on their hands in the defending champs. Here’s how the East shakes out at the moment: Toronto currently ranks third in the Atlantic Division with 79 points, well behind No. 2 Tampa Bay and their 92 points. The Panthers are close behind with 76 points, and an extra game to play. The Metro, though, has a stranglehold on the wild-card race — Columbus (81 points) and Carolina (79) are slotted in there now, with the Islanders (79) and Rangers (76) right after.

The gap between all those point totals remains slim, but given the Metro logjam, it looks like the most likely route into the post-season for both Toronto and Florida will come via that No. 3 slot in the Atlantic. So, which of the two clubs rights the ship and goes on a run down the stretch to lock that spot down?

St. Louis has dropped just one game in their past 10 outings, and have limited opponents to two goals or less seven times during that span, so squeezing some points out of the match-up won’t be easy. But if Florida does get by them, they move to 78 points, just one behind Toronto for No. 3 in the division, and one behind the Hurricanes/Islanders in the wild-card race.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

If the season ended today…
(C1) St. Louis vs. (WC2) Vancouver
(C2) Colorado vs. (C3) Dallas
(P1) Vegas vs. (WC1) Minnesota
(P2) Edmonton vs. (P3) Calgary

Which series would we like to see?
Much like the East, there’s a clear winner here in regards to potential playoff match-up intrigue, and it’s yet another old-school territorial rivalry. This year’s been one of the best for the Battle of Alberta, which seems to have renewed life due in no small part to the presence of names like Matthew Tkachuk and Zack Kassian. Add the tension and the grinding style of playoff hockey to that mix, and the results will be golden. The Flames and Oilers haven’t met in the post-season since back in 1991 (a seven-game affair, of course, which was won by Edmonton). With both teams building up talented young cores over the past decade, it’s time to see how they’d fare head-to-head when the stakes are highest.

What’d I miss last week?
With the Pacific Division leaders separated by a hair, any slide at this time of year means risking falling out of the mix entirely. And that’s exactly what seems on the cusp of happening in Vancouver.

The Canucks are locked in a down-to-the-wire run to the finish line with the Golden Knights, Oilers and Flames in the Pacific. Vegas has eight wins in their past 10, Calgary has six, and Edmonton has five — Vancouver has just three, and only one of those wins has come in their past six games. That’s pushed the Canucks down to the second wild-card spot, with the Golden Knights, Oilers and Flames lining up as Nos. 1, 2 and 3 in the Pacific.

Vancouver’s 76 points puts them three back of the Flames’ 79, and well back of Vegas (84 points) and Edmonton (82). With the latter three clubs surging, the Canucks’ chances of bumping one of the three out of the mix seems to be shrinking with each passing night. That’s an issue for Elias Pettersson and Co., as they now sit tied with a few quality teams currently outside the playoff bubble — Winnipeg and Nashville — who seem to have the personnel to go on a late run and jump back into the mix, which would push the Canucks out.

The potential return of sniper Brock Boeser could tip things back in Vancouver’s favour, but if the slide continues, their strong 2019-20 could all be for naught.

Game to watch tonight: Oilers vs. Golden Knights
Separated by just two points, the battle for the Pacific Division title is on, and tonight’s Golden Knights-Oilers tilt should play a key role. Both clubs are playing well lately, and each has a win against the other — Edmonton won the first meeting 4-2, while Vegas claimed the second 3-0.

Both clubs are coming off fairly dominant wins too. The Oilers took down Columbus 4-1 last time out, with Mikko Koskinen putting up a wild 45-save performance to keep his club in it. While Mike Smith seemed to have the edge as the team’s starter as recently as last week, Koskinen’s recent run has at the very least pushed them back to level ground, and more likely has him as the current go-to option.

Vegas is coming off a 5-3 win over the Flames, the club they’ll see in the first round if the Oilers manage to unseat them for the division title. Defender Shea Theodore’s ascent this season has been a key factor for Vegas. The 24-year-old got the game-winner over Calgary courtesy of a somewhat fortuitous deflection off of Andrew Mangiapane’s stick, but he has more than good luck going his way — he has the second-most goals among all NHL defenders over the past month, and a career-high 45 points on the season so far.

The Golden Knights play the Oilers once more after tonight’s tilt, and have a whopping seven games against divisional opponents over their final 12 games of the season in total, so much has yet to be determined in the Pacific.

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