TORONTO – Remember how last winter began for the Toronto Blue Jays?
In case you don’t, here’s a refresher: Early on, before the Blue Jays landed George Springer, Marcus Semien and Kirby Yates, the front office was reported to have interest in all manner of free agents. From Ha-Seong Kim and Michael Brantley to Corey Kluber and Liam Hendriks, the Blue Jays appeared to be in on everyone.
Despite the Blue Jays’ efforts, though, everyone kept landing elsewhere. And maybe worst of all? Word would often leak that the Blue Jays had “made a competitive offer,” “come close” or “finished second.” As Blue Jays fans were quick to point out, none of that makes a roster any better.
Eventually, the Blue Jays made plenty of moves, and the resulting team continues competing for a playoff spot at 45-42. But what about all of those near-misses? At the time, they were painful. With the benefit of half a season of games, how do they look now?
With a nod toward J.T. Realmuto, Trevor Bauer, Brad Hand, Taijuan Walker, Jake Odorizzi, James Paxton, Justin Turner and several others, we’ll set aside the players in whom the Blue Jays merely expressed interest and focus on the players who appear to have received offers from the team.
From the most fortuitous misses to the most regrettable near-deals, here’s a look at what might have been:
Ha-Seong Kim, Padres
Blue Jays’ reported offer: Five years or more
Would the Blue Jays lock that in now? No
Actual deal: Four years, $28 million
2021 stats: .208/.269/.350, 5 HR, 6.0% walk rate, 23.4% strikeout rate, 0.4 WAR
Could the Blue Jays use another bench player capable of filling in everywhere and providing offence along the way? Yes. Does Kim appear to be that player? Not now. In this case, it’s a good thing for the Blue Jays that Kim went elsewhere.
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Francisco Lindor, Mets
Blue Jays’ reported trade offer: Included higher-ceiling prospects than the ones the Mets offered
Would the Blue Jays lock that in now? Probably not
Actual deal: Lindor and Carlos Carrasco for infielders Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario, right-hander Josh Wolf and outfielder Isaiah Greene
Extension: 10 years, $341 million
Would the Blue Jays lock that in now? No
2021 stats: .227/.326/.377, 11 HR, 11.4% walk rate, 16.9% strikeout rate, 1.8 WAR
Lindor’s defence and contact skills make him a high-floor player — someone who makes a difference even when he’s not hitting for tons of power. And at 27, he’s likely got many years of stardom ahead. Still, the overall quality of contact has been pretty ordinary for Lindor (56th percentile xwOBA) and his offensive numbers are unimpressive as a result, even with a strong finish.
If you’re the Mets, you point to Lindor’s barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, all of which are within the realm of his career norms. But if you’re a team like the Blue Jays, you’re probably glad you didn’t go all in with prospects to get Lindor — and that’s before we get to the $341 million extension.
At the time, it was completely understandable for fans to want the front office to invest around its young core. As it turns out, the front office’s decision to hold firm on its valuation of Lindor may have helped them avoid paying inflated prices here.
Plus, there’s the opportunity cost of landing Lindor. If they go all in to sign him, Marcus Semien’s having an all-star season for someone else right now.
DJ LeMahieu, Yankees
Blue Jays’ reported offer: Four years, $78 million
Would the Blue Jays lock that in now? No
Actual deal: Six years, $90 million
2021 stats: .270/.351/.367, 7 HR, 10.9% walk rate, 15.0% strikeout rate, 1.6 WAR
Even without the power he initially showed upon joining the Yankees in 2019, LeMahieu’s still a valuable player. After a slow start, he’s been heating up at the plate, so there’s no doubt he’d help all 30 teams, the Blue Jays included.
But there are two reasons the Blue Jays aren’t wishing he’d accepted their offer. One: If you’re spending $78 million on a hitter, you expect overall production that’s well above average, not a 101 OPS+. And again, they were probably only adding one star-level infielder last winter, so if they’d landed LeMahieu, they wouldn’t have signed Semien.
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Corey Kluber, Yankees
Blue Jays’ reported offer: One year
Actual deal: One year, $11 million
Would the Blue Jays lock that in now? Not likely
2021 stats: 3.04 ERA, 53.1 innings, 55 strikeouts, 23 walks, 1.0 WAR
A rotator cuff strain has sidelined Kluber for at least eight weeks, but he was effective before hitting the injured list in late May. Effective enough to justify a salary in the $10–12 million range? If Kluber can recover, then sure, but knowing what they know now the Blue Jays are probably content with Steven Matz, the starter they acquired soon after they learned Kluber would be going to the Yankees.
Tomoyuki Sugano, Yomiuri Giants
Blue Jays’ reported offer: Unknown
Actual deal: Four years, $40 million
Would the Blue Jays lock that in now? Unclear
2021 stats: 3.29 ERA, 52 innings, 39 strikeouts, 11 walks
While the Blue Jays could certainly use further pitching help, it’s difficult to fairly assess Sugano from afar. His numbers are respectable, but a dip in strikeout rate and a slight increase in walk rate would suggest the Blue Jays aren’t losing too much sleep over this near-miss.
Liam Hendriks, White Sox
Blue Jays’ reported offer: Unclear, but Hendriks toured the team’s player development complex
Actual deal: Three years, $54 million
Would the Blue Jays lock that in now? Most likely
2021 stats: 2.75 ERA, 39.1 innings, 23 saves, 63 strikeouts, 4 walks, 1.3 WAR
There was legitimate mutual interest between Hendriks and the Blue Jays, but the creative three-year deal he signed with the White Sox was enough to lure him to Chicago. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays opted for the high-risk, high-reward Kirby Yates only to lose the veteran reliever to Tommy John.
Considering the Blue Jays’ season-long issues in the bullpen and Hendriks’s continued excellence in Chicago, his deal would look great on the Blue Jays’ roster right now, even accounting for the significant price.
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Michael Brantley, Astros
Blue Jays’ reported offer: Three years
Would the Blue Jays lock that in now? Yes
Actual deal: Two years, $32 million
2021 stats: .326/.372/.475, 5 HR, 6.3% walk rate, 11.2% strikeout rate, 2.1 WAR
Over the winter, these factors contributed to the Blue Jays’ interest in Brantley:
• as a left-handed hitter, he would balance a largely right-handed batting order, making life tougher on opposing managers late in games
• while the Blue Jays already had a potent offence, there’s plenty of reason to build on a strength — especially since good hitters add disproportionate value to already-good lineups
None of that has changed, and Brantley has put together another all-star first half, so this miss hurts more than most. As it stands, the Blue Jays continue seeking a left-handed bat as their deal for Corey Dickerson shows.
Kevin Gausman, Giants
Blue Jays’ reported offer: Three years, $40 million
Would the Blue Jays lock that in now? In a heartbeat
Actual deal: One year, $18.9 million
2021 stats: 1.73 ERA, 114.2 innings, 133 strikeouts, 30 walks, 3.4 WAR
Were it not for Jacob deGrom’s utter dominance, there would be some Cy Young buzz building for Gausman, who’s enjoying his best season yet at age 30. This winter, he may be the most coveted arm available in a strong free-agent class. In the meantime, he’s a major reason the Giants are in first place.
In this case, there’s no doubt. With the benefit of hindsight, we can definitively say the Blue Jays should have made Gausman an offer he couldn’t refuse.
Zooming out even further, the group of players the Blue Jays targeted continues performing well for the most part. But as some of the examples show, there’s danger in the “just-get-it-done” mentality and opportunities available for those willing to be patient.
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