Over Paul Skenes' first two major-league seasons, the six-foot-six right-hander was virtually unhittable.
On his way to the NL Rookie of the Year in 2024 and Cy Young in 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates ace carried a 1.96 ERA over 320.2 innings and 55 starts while racking up 386 strikeouts.
But in 2026, Skenes hasn't quite been the same pitcher.
After averaging 98.5 m.p.h. with his fastball across his first two years, the pitch has taken a step back this season, averaging 96.8 and allowing hitters to time up the offering more frequently.
The result has been a 3.91 ERA through 168 innings as his strikeout, walk and home-run rates have all moved in the wrong direction.
So, what's behind the down year?
Well, in a recent interview with the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Colin Beazley, the 24-year-old pointed to his time pitching for the United States in this spring's World Baseball Classic as a potential ingredient to his sudden drop in results.
“There are a lot of other factors, so I don’t want to put everything on that,” Skenes said. “But I feel like that was kind of the root of it a little bit.”
Skenes took the mound twice for Team USA, striking out seven over four scoreless innings in the country's round-robin victory over Mexico and delivering 4.1 solid frames against the stacked Dominican Republic lineup in a 2-1 semifinal victory.
It marked the first time that the former Air Force standout had pitched in the WBC, where his performance earned him a spot on the All-Tournament Team.
“Usually, that time of year, you’re kind of ramping up and it’s a little bit slow. You can kind of get onto the slope and find your body,” Skenes said. “One live (batting practice), you’re topping at 97 (m.p.h.), and then the next you’re 98, 99. And that wasn’t the case this year. ... Looking back, I don’t think that really helped.”
With the Pirates entering the final week of the regular season at 79-77 — tracking for their first winning campaign since 2019 — Skenes' struggles have fans in Pittsburgh asking, "What if?" the 2023 top pick had been at his peak powers through the season.
Would the Pirates have been able to stick in the NL wild-card race longer?
They're currently seven games back of the third-place Philadelphia Phillies and eliminated from post-season contention, despite their above-.500 record.
While Skenes began the year intentionally throwing softer in hopes of working deeper into games, he told the Post-Gazette that he "would have liked to throw harder than (he has) this year.”
A tinkerer by trade, Skenes has tweaked his mechanics multiple times this season while searching for improved results and better velocity.
“Stuff changes over the course of the season and from outing to outing,” Skenes said. “With that said, there’s been a lot more changes, outing to outing this year, that I kind of just don’t have an answer for body-wise.”
It's clear that the WBC isn't solely to blame for Skenes' step back, but it seems clear that the three-time all-star isn't pleased with how the tournament impacted his season.
“It definitely affected the year,” he said. “Unfortunately, I don’t think I’m the only one.”
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