Small-market Rays and Guardians set for ALCS clash with wider implications

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — If not an exact mirror, the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians are at least reflections of one another. Two of the game’s most forward-thinking franchises, consistently in the post-season despite near-bottom payrolls. 

As labour conflict looms over the sport once the current collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, their intriguing clash in the American League Championship Series, starting Monday at Tropicana Field, may very well resonate beyond the field.

Along with the Milwaukee Brewers, who are vying to emerge from the National League, three of the sport’s four finalists are from smaller markets, a compelling rebuttal to the competitive-balance framework being used to support Major League Baseball’s latest pursuit of a salary-cap system. 

At the opposite end of the argument are the two-time defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers, every bit as clever as their three remaining rivals, but backed by a behemoth projected $422-million luxury-tax payroll that is well beyond the trio’s combined spending (Milwaukee is 20th in the majors at $154 million, Tampa is 28th at $110 million and Cleveland is 29th at $103 million).

What happens this October, then, is sure to become a flashpoint for the arguments that lie ahead. Indisputable, however, is that the Rays, in the playoffs for a sixth time in eight years, have already sent the New York Yankees, the sport’s No. 3 spender this year with a projected luxury tax payroll of $336 million, packing during a three-game, division-series sweep, and may face a stiffer challenge now against a different version of themselves.

“I do think there are more similarities (between the Rays and Guardians) than not,” said Kevin Cash, who spent two years in Cleveland as bullpen coach before being hired to manage Tampa Bay in Dec. 2014. “Most clubs that we're talking about are opposing, I feel Cleveland does mirror us, or we mirror them. And I say that with the utmost respect to them, the way they develop pitching, the way they think about the game. 

“As far as developing, acquiring, there are a lot of similarities. And we know that we are facing an extremely talented opponent top to bottom of that roster.”

Guardians manager Stephen Vogt echoed those sentiments and traced the similarities to each club’s president of baseball operations.

“Erik Neander and Chris Antonetti are two of the best people in baseball and they're really good at what they do — building teams very differently than some of the teams around the league,” he said. “And Cashy has been one of the best managers in the league for a long time because he knows how to use his guys. They play a very different brand of baseball than a lot of teams. We've got to be ready for defence. We've got to be ready for some good pitching.

“But these two organizations are very similar and filled with amazing people that develop pitching and some really good talent.”

On the field, the numbers this year quite clearly make the case.

There is little separation on the pitching side, with Cleveland getting more from their starters than the Rays, who compensated for that with their bullpen. That difference may be negated in a best-of-seven with ace Drew Rasmussen set to pitch Game 1 and the Rays able to condense down behind him, with Freddy Peralta, Nick Martinez and one of either Griffin Jax or Ian Seymour, or maybe both in some creative usage.

At the plate, both teams produce runs by relying on contact and speed while mixing and matching in their batting order, but the Rays produce more slug and get on base more often, leading to more runs. 

Jose Ramirez is a unique X-Factor, nearly singlehandedly turning Cleveland’s fortunes in the division series against the Chicago White Sox, delivering game-altering hits in each of the Guardians’ three wins after they fell behind 2-0.

Rasmussen noted that he began his prep for Monday with the superstar third baseman and added, “it’s crazy that we can probably all acknowledge he's a top-10 player in the entire world, and yet I think he's the most underrated player in all of baseball.”

“He is one-of-a-kind talent that definitely alarms go off when you're going into your scouting and that kind of stuff,” he added. “You're definitely mindful of where he's at in the lineup.”

Still, the Rays are more difficult to contain with the imposing trio of Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero atop their lineup, bolstered by the deadline addition of Canadian catcher Liam Hicks and the mid-season emergence of Victor Mesa Jr. 

Their contact skills up and down the lineup mean Game 1 starter Foster Griffin and the rest of the Guardians staff — who combined to strike out a post-season record 21 batters in the Game 5 win over Chicago — can expect to be grinded even harder this series.

“The contact, I think, plays a large part of that,” said Cash. “You have Yandy, Aranda and Cami early on and then four, five, six down, it’s just a consistent approach of contact and putting pressure on the defence.”

Without the same lineup depth, the Guardians try to do the same thing and will need to do it well, as at 53.33 at-bats-per-homer in the post-season so far — Milwaukee’s at 44, Tampa 32 and the Dodgers 16.62 — the type of big swings Ramirez provided in the last round might not come as regularly.

Still, as the White Sox learned the hard way, they exploit every small gap.

“In my time here, they’re one of the organizations that fundamentally does everything right all the time. They never beat themselves,” said Rasmussen. “If you're going to win, you also are going to have to do everything fundamentally sound. … We're already signing up for close games that are going to come down to the wire. It’s no different than any other game, right? You just have to out-execute the other team.”

Especially against an opponent that’s so similar on and off the field.