Three realistic moves Blue Jays could make at 2021 MLB trade deadline

Arden Zwelling discusses if Joey Gallo had too high of a price tag for the Blue Jays and if now the focus will primary be on adding pitching at the trade deadline.

As the MLB trade deadline approaches, the Toronto Blue Jays are the subject of countless rumours from the far-fetched (Max Scherzer) to the less exciting, but more plausible (Richard Rodriguez).

That has fans around the country imagining what some of the most exciting players on the market would look like in a Blue Jays uniform. Less fun to contemplate is the acquisition cost of these options, but it’s equally important -- and something this front office will be spending sleepless hours on between now and the deadline.

It’s easy to identify a player who could help your team. Determining if they’re worth the price of admission is a little trickier.

To get a sense of what those prices could be, a quick look at some trades made at recent deadlines could give us a sense of what the Blue Jays might be giving up this time around. Here are three recent trades that provide insight on the markets the team is dealing with:

Pittsburgh Pirates acquire RHP Keone Kela from the Texas Rangers for RHP Taylor Hearn and a PTNL (3B Sherten Apostel) -- 2018

How did this deal work: The Pirates saw Kela as an up-and-coming relief ace, with multiple years of control remaining and made a prospect-rich deal to a Rangers team that was going nowhere. Prior to the season Hearn and Apostel ranked as their eighth and 16th-ranked prospects per FanGraphs, but Kela had produced a WAR of 2.0 in his past year-and-a-half, averaged 97 m.p.h. on his fastball, and had an outstanding rookie season under his belt (1.5 WAR in 2015). A rough 2016 was the only blip on his resume, but he seemed to have put it behind him.

How does it relate to the 2021 Blue Jays: While Kela is more of a power pitcher than presumed Blue Jays target Rodríguez, he had the same amount of team control (two years beyond the deadline) and his numbers were only a touch worse. From 2017 to the 2018 trade deadline, the righty posted a 3.11 ERA and 3.12 FIP while Rodriguez has managed a 2.77 ERA and 2.68 FIP since the beginning of 2020. If we give Kela some bonus points for raw stuff and the associated missed bats, plus youth -- and assign Rodríguez a demerit for his recent struggles since the sticky stuff ban -- they look like reasonable comparables.

Proposed trade: Blue Jays trade 2B/SS Miguel Hiraldo and SS Leonardo Jimenez to the Pirates for Richard Rodríguez

Hiraldo is a top 10 prospect for the Blue Jays (seventh on MLB Pipeline’s list and ninth for FanGraphs), but he’s been more good than great in 2021 and there’s some positional uncertainty with him going forward. While the 20-year-old has plenty of offensive potential -- and wouldn’t be someone the team would love to part with -- the farm system is rich with middle infielders and he’s more expendable than most of the prospects of his quality.

Jimenez (11th on MLB Pipeline’s Blue Jays list, 18th for FanGraphs) would be playing the role of Apostel as a promising player a long way from the majors. The 20-year-old is a strong athlete and defender with a knack for making contact, but has shown virtually no power as a pro thus far.

On the surface this looks a bit pricey, which might indicate the Pirates overshot the mark when they acquired Kela in the first place. The deal certainly didn’t work out for them as they got just 47 innings out of their new high-leverage reliever between 2018 and 2020.

Toronto Blue Jays acquire RHP Ross Stripling from the Los Angeles Dodgers for RHP Kendall Williams and 1B/OF Ryan Noda -- 2020

How did this deal work: The Blue Jays took on a struggling pitcher with a strong track record and two-plus years of control remaining. In return, they gave up a solid prospect in Williams (FanGraphs’ 13th-ranked Blue Jay prior to the season) and Noda who was more prospect-adjacent, but possessing otherworldly plate discipline that made him interesting.

How does it relate to the 2021 Blue Jays: Because the Blue Jays are unlikely to go for a brand-name rental -- and their need for starting pitching will extend into 2022 and beyond -- getting a starter with control makes sense. Of course, starters with control are hard to find on the trade market because just about every team needs them, but there are a couple of possible fits.

One of them is Colorado Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland. Freeland arguably has a higher profile than Stripling did last year thanks to a brilliant 4.1 WAR season in 2018 when it appeared that he’d conquered Coors Field. Since then he’s only put up 1.3 WAR, but he’s still got intriguing stuff, and he’s consistently been able to out-pitch his peripherals and keep the ball on the ground. He also possesses a curveball that’s been steadily improving and could help him miss more bats going forward.

Proposed trade: Blue Jays trade RHP Adam Kloffenstein and 2B/OF Samad Taylor to the Rockies for Kyle Freeland

Considering that Freeland projects as a back-of-the-rotation arm, what you’re really paying for is the years of control (at affordable arbitration prices) -- but the cost there is significant. Kloffenstein fits the Williams mold as a young, projectable, starter with a good arm. Because he’s struggled in 2021 to the tune of a 6.16 ERA and 5.38 FIP at High-A, the sweetener needs to be significantly better.

That’s where Taylor comes into play. The Rockies always appreciate speed in their outfielders thanks to their spacious home park and Taylor brings that in spades. He is also having an offensive breakout in 2021 and demonstrating significant power for the first time. If Kloffenstein is the young underachiever with upside, the 23-year-old Taylor is the consistent minor league performer who’s close to the major leagues.

Oakland Athletics acquire RHP Tanner Roark from Cincinnati Reds for CF Jameson Hannah -- 2019

How did this deal work: Although Roark might not be worth much in the eyes of Blue Jays fans who witnessed his disastrous tenure with the team, at the time he was considered a reliable starter. In 2019 he was coming off four consecutive seasons with 2.0 WAR or more and looked like a solid rotation-boosting rental for the A’s. In exchange for a couple of months of his services, the Athletics parted with their sixth-best prospect (per FanGraphs) in Hannah.

That sounds like a lot to give up to rent an average starter, but there are two important pieces of context. Firstly, the Athletics did not have a strong farm system at the time (Keith Law ranked it 27th in the league prior to the season) so Hannah -- an athletic outfielder with limited power -- wouldn’t have been a top-10 prospect for a lot of teams. Also, at the time of the trade he was hardly tearing up the minor leagues, posting a 102 wRC+ in High-A with just two home runs in 414 plate appearances.

How does it relate to the 2021 Blue Jays: With the inconsistency of Steven Matz, and Stripling’s recent struggles, the Blue Jays would be wise to consider adding a starter. If they decide to do that via the rental market to keep the acquisition cost down (as they did in 2020) shopping at the top of the market doesn’t make much sense. However, getting someone to solidify their pitching corps who they can count on for league-average innings could work.

Michael Pineda is someone who fits that description at this point of his career. He comes with significant injury risk, but over the last two seasons he’s provided 99 innings with a 3.73 and 3.67 FIP. His velocity has dropped a bit in 2021, and his peripherals (such as a 4.63 xERA) aren’t as robust as his ERA (3.86) suggests, but he’s a strike thrower capable of working deep into games. For a team like the Blue Jays with a strong enough offence to give him some margin for error -- and a dubious bullpen that’s best suited to handle as few innings as possible -- he fits nicely.

Proposed trade: Blue Jays trade 2B/SS Otto Lopez to the Minnesota Twins for Michael Pineda

Considering the quality of their farm system there’s no way the Blue Jays would trade a top-six prospect for Pineda, but Lopez is a player not dissimilar to Hannah in some ways. The 22-year-old has no power to speak of (his career pro ISO is .100), but he’s got a strong hit tool, good speed, and position versatility. He’s also in the midst of a strong season at Double-A hitting .337/.403/.466.

Lopez is a bit of a divisive prospect as MLB Pipeline has him 10th on its Blue Jays list while FanGraphs pegs him at 23rd. If Toronto sees him as a future utility player then they could make him available -- especially with all the middle infield depth in their system.

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