For the second straight year, the Detroit Tigers are right where they want to be.
Despite fading down the stretch, blowing a 15.5-game division lead and entering the post-season as the No. 6 seed in the American League, Detroit finds itself on the verge of an ALCS matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays with its ace on the mound.
Tarik Skubal will get his shot at avenging 2024's Game 5 loss in the ALDS in the same situation in Friday night's winner-take-all against the Seattle Mariners (Sportsnet/Sportsnet+, 8:08 p.m. ET/ 5:08 p.m. PT).
The two sides return to Seattle after the Tigers erased a 3-0 lead on Wednesday, plating nine unanswered runs to extend their season and shake what had been a quiet offensive performance against a tough Mariners staff.
But all eyes will be on Skubal. The Cy Young Award favourite was tagged for five runs in a decisive fifth inning by the Cleveland Guardians on the way to a season-ending defeat last October. However, the 28-year-old isn't changing his approach to handling a Seattle lineup that has won each of its three games against him this season.
"The experience of playoff baseball, I understand, win-or-go-home games are a little bit different, but every game means a ton," Skubal said after Detroit's Game 4 win. "So it's not like Game 1 or Game 2 or Game 3 are any different than Game 5 in terms of wins or losses. But the game stays the game."
Skubal started Game 2 of this ALDS, striking out nine over seven innings of two-run ball — the only damage coming on a pair of homers from Jorge Polanco. But the Tigers' bats couldn't muster enough run support, as an eighth-inning RBI double by Julio Rodríguez lifted the Mariners to a 3-2 win.
Even with Game 2's quality outing, Skubal still owns a 4.58 ERA against Seattle this season, more than two runs higher than his 2.21 regular-season mark.
"A key to our success over the last times we've faced him is being able to put some pitches on him...," Mariners manager Dan Wilson said during Thursday's workout day. "If he's attacking the zone and getting pitches into the zone early, you can't be as passive."
"But these guys have seen him now three times and have a pretty good idea of what to expect, and we'll take that game plan out there tomorrow and be ready to go."
Kirby counters
On the other side of things, the Mariners are turning to Game 1 starter George Kirby, who was cruising through 4.2 innings on Saturday before giving up a two-run shot to Kerry Carpenter and exited after recording just one more out.
Seattle opted to start Kirby and Luis Castillo in Games 1 and 2, leaning on their T-Mobile Park success after both struggled on the road in 2025. That gave the Mariners the option to turn to either righty in a potential Game 5 scenario on normal rest, but Wilson tabbed Kirby as the starter.
"They both threw very, very well against Detroit," Seattle's manager explained. "George certainly threw the ball extremely well, and it was kind of by design, and this is kind of the way we had hoped it would work out, so this is the way it went."
After battling injury early in the season, Kirby finished the year strong and built on that in Game 1, touching 99.5 m.p.h. with his fastball while striking out eight.
The last time we saw Kirby pitch in an elimination game was in the 2022 ALDS, when he worked seven scoreless innings at home against the Houston Astros before Seattle ultimately fell 1-0 in 18 innings.
"Nothing changes. It's still the same game," Kirby said Thursday of pitching in an elimination scenario. "The stakes are higher, but there's no need to go out there and be someone who you're not. So just attack the day and go out there and have some fun, do what makes you good."
Hitters to watch
For the most part, pitching has ruled this series, but Games 3 and 4 saw the bats begin to stir with late-game rallies.
Cal Raleigh — who else? — has been a thorn in the Tigers' side so far. The AL MVP candidate is 7-for-16 with two extra-base hits as he continues his excellent season, but beyond the "Big Dumper," J.P. Crawford is the only Seattle hitter with an OPS over .800 this October.
Seattle would obviously love for some of its other stars to step up, but in what is sure to be a tight affair, Crawford could be the difference maker on Friday. It's a small sample, but the shortstop is 4-for-5 and has never struck out against Skubal.
For Detroit, it's Gleyber Torres and Spencer Torkelson who have done much of the heavy lifting in the series, combining to go 10-for-30 with six extra-base hits.
It's Kerry Carpenter, though, who will surely be a main focus of Kirby's pre-game planning. In 11 head-to-head matchups between the two, Carpenter is 5-for-11 with five home runs.
What lies ahead
Waiting for the series winner are the Blue Jays, who will host Game 1 of the ALCS at the Rogers Centre on Sunday at 8:03 p.m. ET / 5:03 p.m. PT with their pitching staff rested.
A matchup with the Tigers would mark the first time that the two clubs have met in the post-season. Given that Skubal is set to pitch Friday, he would project to be available for Game 3 and a potential Game 7 of the ALCS if Detroit kept him on normal rest.
The Blue Jays and Mariners, meanwhile, met during the 2022 Wild Card Series, where Seattle swept the two-game set in their lone playoff meeting.
Toronto won the season series against both Detroit and Seattle, but hasn't seen the Tigers since late July and the Mariners since early May.
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