TORONTO — A few weeks ago, when the Toronto Blue Jays first moved Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out of the No. 3 spot in the batting order, he said he had no problem hitting second.
Speaking outside the visiting clubhouse at Comerica Park, the 27-year-old even went a step further.
“If they want me to lead off and the team needs me there, I’ll lead off,” he said.
At the time, it seemed like he might be half kidding. But three weeks later ahead of a matchup with Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday, Guerrero Jr. was leading off a big-league game for just the second time in his career and the first time since the final game of the 2024 season.
For now the Blue Jays say it’s an evolving situation rather than a permanent shift, but the change is especially intriguing at a time that both Guerrero Jr. and their typical leadoff hitter, George Springer, are mired in extended slumps. More than two months into the season, the Blue Jays figured, ‘why not?’
“Just trying to shake things up for him a little bit and see how it goes,” manager John Schneider explained before Tuesday’s game. “I said, who's going to be a better DH today, you or Schwarber?”
That would be Kyle Schwarber, the Phillies designated hitter who leads MLB with 23 home runs. He’s one of many prototypical power hitters who hit leadoff regularly, along with Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Nick Kurtz.
Mind you, this whole conversation might not be happening if Guerrero Jr. were producing at his previously established levels. Entering play Tuesday he was hitting .282 with a .740 OPS and three home runs, putting him on pace for about seven home runs in the course of a full season.
Guerrero Jr.’s hitting singles, but his isolated power of .085 ranks 14th on the Blue Jays behind Myles Straw and just ahead of Tyler Heineman. In recent weeks, as his numbers have dipped, Guerrero Jr. has said he’s searching for one swing — ideally a no-doubt home run.
Yet those have been hard to come by despite some hard-hit outs.
“You’ve got to just keep going, really,” Schneider said. “It's just baseball.”
From his vantage point in the third base dugout, Schneider believes it’s “pretty evident” opposing pitchers are pounding Guerrero Jr. with sinkers inside to open up the outer portion of the plate for breaking balls away.
It’s an approach that’s been working, as Guerrero Jr.’s chasing more than ever. He’s swinging at pitches outside the zone 31.9 per cent of the time — a career high that’s spiked 10 percentage points since last year.
Until he stops chasing, pitchers have little reason to challenge him in the zone. And until pitchers challenge him in the zone, it’ll be hard to get pitches to drive. Ideally, he’d just stop chasing, but that’s easy to say and hard to do when the likes of Cristopher Sanchez, Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo are on the mound.
Nevertheless, that’s part of the challenge for Guerrero Jr. — and he’s happy to take it on from the leadoff spot. After loosely discussing the possibility of leading off for weeks, Schneider asked him more seriously Monday night.
“I'll hit wherever,” Guerrero Jr. told his manager.
And so with Springer on the bench, Guerrero Jr. took over top spot for the day, grounding out twice, flying out and hitting an infield single in his four trips to the plate.
“It's no secret that we go as Vlad goes, right?” Schneider said. “And, no one feels that more than him. I want him to get up there and have as many bats as he can. He's going to get it going eventually. It's just, see how this goes (Tuesday), see how it goes going forward. Nothing's set in stone.”
Of course, others are impacted by the change, too. Ernie Clement moved to the No. 3 spot in the order Tuesday, a responsibility that doesn’t seem to phase him.
As Schneider put it: “Yeah, he doesn't care.”
Over the course of his career, Springer has been one of MLB’s best leadoff hitters with 65 career leadoff home runs. But the Blue Jays have moved him in and out of the leadoff spot in recent seasons, and he could be back in the leadoff spot as soon as Wednesday when Luzardo pitches.
“It depends on who we're facing,” Schneider said. “This isn't like a demotion for George or a promotion for Vlad. This is just trying to get Vlad going.”
Ideally, the Blue Jays would have stability in their lineup, but they trust their hitters to adapt to different batting orders. Through 68 games this season, they’ve used 64 different lineups.
Sequencing those hitters properly does matter. The right order can provide hitters a degree of comfort while setting up favourable late-game matchups against opposing bullpens. But as long as you’re stacking your best hitters near the top of the order, lineup order has far less impact on the outcome of a game than the actual performance of the hitters.
Ultimately, it’s on Guerrero Jr. to adjust to how pitchers are pitching him and get back to the form that’s seen him average 29 home runs, 96 RBI and an .854 OPS per 162 games played. If he gets back to that level, it won’t matter where the Blue Jays hit him.
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