Alexander Gustafsson did not defeat Jon Jones in their title match at UFC 165 but he surely beat up the champion’s aura of invincibility.
Fast forward to UFC 172 Saturday and Glover Teixeira looks to build on Gustafsson’s job in wobbling the light-heavyweight champion and to topple him.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Watch UFC 172 prelims Saturday on Sportsnet 360 starting at 8 p.m. EST / 5 p.m. PST
But oddsmakers aren’t selling the idea that Jones will suffer his first loss in 11 fights. And MMA bettors don’t seem to buying it either.
“After the Gustafsson fight, we figured that oddsmakers would tread more cautiously on the betting lines, but Jones is a whopping -500 favourite here,” said Jack Randall of OddsShark.com. “It means Teixeira, an absolute beast who has 20 straight fights, is a 4-1 underdog.”
Teixeira will try to follow the blueprint for getting the champ in trouble – that is, lay your heavy hands on him. Jones will try to use his reach advantage to pick Teixeira apart. If the fight hits the mat, it will be an interesting clash of wrestling from Jones and Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
“We see Jones learning from his mistakes in the Gustafsson fight,” predicted Randall. “Teixeira hasn’t fought anyone of the calibre of Jones and it will be a test of his durability and courage if he can’t get into range for his punches.”
Prediction: Jones by late KO
The co-main event may decide the next challenger to the Main Event winner’s belt. Phil Davis is favoured at -210 against Anthony Johnson, who returns after an 18-month UFC hiatus that saw him win six straight.
Davis brings a stellar wrestling pedigree which he uses to control fights. Can he do it against the powerful Johnson, who fought at heavyweight in the World Series of Fighting promotion?
With only three decisions in his last 17 fights and a muscular body that caused him to fade quickly in several losses, betting on this fight to go the distance may not be the best investment.
Prediction: Davis by decision
The biggest underdog on the card is Tim Boetsch, who has not looked good in recent fights and he is a 5-1 UFC 172 underdog at Bodog against former Strikeforce champ Luke Rockhold.
At -800, Rockhold isn’t great value (profit $1 for every $8 risked) but Boetsch has looked slower and less dangerous since winning a few upsets.
Prediction: Rockhold by TKO
The flyweight division sees an important matchup between Joseph Benavidez and Tim Elliott. Both come off losses – Benavidez in a surprise knockout loss to champion Mighty Mouse Johnson and Elliott in a decision loss to Ali Bagautinov.
Elliott was tagged every time he moved into range in his latest loss and Benavidez will probably follow the same tactic with his striking. We don’t see Elliott having the defence or ground game to keep pace with Benavidez who is determined to climb back to No. 1 contender status.
Oddsmakers seem to agree, making Elliott nearly a 3-1 underdog here.
Prediction: Benavidez by submission
Jim Miller, once knocking at the door for a Lightweight title shot, has alternated wins and losses the past seven fights (one loss to Pat Healy was overturned when Healy tested positive for weed). He is favoured against 9-1 Yancy Medeiros, a late replacement when Bobby Green was injured in training.
At -210, Miller looks like safe money even though his win-loss trend points to a loss here.
Prediction: Miller by submission
The rest of the card features a battle of unbeaten women in the most closely handicapped scrap of the night and popular Charlie Brenneman trying to avoid his fourth straight UFC loss.
Former Pride and Shooto champion Takanori Gomi is favored against Isaac Valllie-Flagg and the younger brother of welterweight contender Jake Ellenberger makes his UFC debut. Joe Ellenberger is -300 against veteran Vagner Rocha.
Max Holloway faces Andre Fili in the other undercard fight. Holloway usually beats mediocre fighters and loses to good ones, so he could be a good underdog bet at +130.
UFC 172 odds courtesy of BestUFCOdds.com
Patrick Williams +110
Chris Beal -140
Danny Castillo -280
Charlie Brenneman +220
Beth Correia -120
Jessamyn Duke -110
Takanori Gomi -225
Isaac Vallie-Flag +175
Vagner Rocha +230
Joe Ellenberger -300
Luke Rockhold -800
Tim Boetsch +500
Joseph Benavidez -400
Tim Elliott +300
Max Holloway +130
Andre Fili -160
Jim Miller -200
Yancy Medeiros +160
Anthony Johnson +170
Phil Davis -210
Jon Jones -550
Glover Teixeira +375
