Finally, they’re here. The first round of win total over/under lines are starting to trickle out, mostly via PointsBet Canada. And like a kid on the first night of Hanukkah (or Christmas morning, if that’s your thing), I’m ready to dig in.
These are, bar none, my favourite bets to make. I know I’ve proselytized generally against the virtues of futures betting (if you have a long-term vision, just bet game-by-game toward that vision!), but this specific type of futures bet is just fun. It gives you a rooting interest in every team over the course of the season.
And who knows, maybe we’ll make some money.
30 teams. 30 picks. Let’s get it, starting with the Eastern Conference’s Atlantic Division.
Eastern Conference – Atlantic Division
I’m doing the Atlantic first for two reasons. Firstly, lines for both the Brooklyn Nets and New York Knicks are not up yet, because the books think there’s too much uncertainty when it comes to the eventual opening night rosters of those squads. Kevin Durant and/or Kyrie Irving could leave Brooklyn. The Knicks could end up winning the Donovan Mitchell sweepstakes.
Secondly, I think it has a chance to be the best division in basketball. Sure, the Pacific has Golden State, Phoenix, and the L.A. Clippers, but this division doesn’t have a truly bad team. The Knicks were the only Atlantic team with a negative point differential last season (-0.1) and with the addition of Jalen Brunson, they’ve improved their backcourt. If they somehow get Mitchell, the floor for the entire Atlantic goes way up.
Most importantly for us, the Toronto Raptors were good last season, and good ahead of schedule. They should contend for the division title. Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned the defending Eastern Conference Champs yet.
Toronto Raptors – o/u 44.5 wins
Key additions – Otto Porter Jr. (F)
Key losses – Nobody important. Yuta Watanabe and Thaddeus Young, I guess?
I am so high on the Toronto Raptors I might as well be Snoop Dogg at the Superbowl Halftime Show. Or Snoop Dogg on a Tuesday afternoon.
They probably overperformed on their way to 48 wins last season, but this is a young, rangy, and well-coached squad. This is an easy OVER 44.5 pick for me, as the Raptors enter the year with the same core and a full year of development for reigning Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes.
Even though it’s just been one season, it doesn’t feel like an exaggeration to say Barnes could end up in the Hall of Fame. He’s that talented and that intelligent. Since the arrival of Draymond Green changed how the NBA saw small-ball bigs, there’s been a lot of members of “The Next Draymond Club.” I thought it would be Jordan Bell. Omari Spellman got some buzz. Jaylin Williams is the guy in this year’s draft class.
But this kind of analysis always leaves out what truly makes Draymond special: His otherworldly basketball IQ. Barnes is the only player I’ve seen that brings that kind of size, athleticism and tenacity to the floor who also has an elite hoops brain. I think Barnes makes a mini-leap, and this team is closer to 50 wins when all is said and done.
Boston Celtics – o/u 55.5 wins
Key additions – Malcolm Brogdon (PG/SG), Danilo Gallinari (F)
Key losses - Nobody
The Celtics have followed their emergent 2021-22 season with a quiet banger of an offseason. If the Minnesota Timberwolves trading all of the draft picks for Rudy Gobert is the song that debuts at #1 on the Hot 100, the Celtics’ offseason released at like #92 before spending months climbing the charts, topping out at like…#20.
That’s a lot of words to say Malcolm Brogdon and Danilo Gallinari are pretty good additions to a team that also retained its entire Finals rotation. Boston won 51 games last season, and should be better, with Brogdon solving some of their point guard issues and Gallinari adding scoring punch to a bench unit that badly needed it.
This number seems right on the money. On the addition of Brogdon alone, this team should be better, but if you factor in another year of maturity for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, they should be significantly better. I force myself to make a pick even if I’m not actually going to bet on it, so give me the UNDER 55.5 wins, mostly because I think Philly and Toronto are going to be significantly improved.
Philadelphia 76ers – o/u 50.5 wins
Key additions – De’Anthony Melton (G), P.J. Tucker (F)
Key losses – Danny Green (injury)
If James Harden can do one thing, it’s going 2-of-11 from the field in an important playoff game. But if James Harden can do two things, the second thing would be putting up big time regular season win numbers. The jury is still out on whether Harden is ever going to be the same kind of gamebreaking isolation threat he was in Houston, but this Sixers team doesn’t need him to be.
What they need is for him to develop elite pick and roll chemistry with Joel Embiid. He’s done it with lesser centres, and if he can do it here, Philadelphia is in great shape. Tyrese Maxey showed us he had another gear in the playoffs, and their offseason pick ups plug glaring holes in their previous roster.
P.J. Tucker gives them an elite wing defender to throw at the Tatums, Durants, and Jimmy Butlers of the world, while De’Anthony Melton adds shooting, speed, and guard defence. I won’t be picking the 76ers to win many playoff series, but picking them to go OVER 50.5 wins almost seems like a gimme.
Brooklyn Nets and New York Knicks – no line
It still seems most likely to me (and to the books) that Durant and Irving stick around in Brooklyn for one more season. No one’s sure enough about that to post a line for the Nets just yet, but if it’s below the 44 wins they put up last season, I’m going to be all over it.
And as for the Knicks…well…several decades of suck makes it tough to see them being great next season, but you could convince me that adding Jalen Brunson to an ever-developing R.J. Barrett could mean New York ends up around 41 wins. So if the books are projecting fewer than the 37 wins they had last year, I’ll like the over.
When it comes to betting the two teams in the Big Apple, we’ll just have to wait and see.
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