The 2022 NBA draft lottery will take place on Tuesday night before tip-off of Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. The event is half an hour beginning at 8:00 pm ET.
Here’s what you need to know heading into the lottery:
How it works
Four years ago the NBA implemented a new lottery system to discourage intentional tanking by reducing the odds that the league’s worst teams will land a top pick. The revised system now makes four selections available via lottery picks, when previously it was just the top three.
Previously, there was a 60 per cent chance that the top pick would go to one of the league’s bottom three teams, while teams in the 5-14 range had less than 30 per cent of a chance to land it. Now, the odds for those three teams are only 42 per cent, while the remaining teams are almost equal at 45.5 per cent.
The Toronto Raptors benefitted from the new system last year, landing the fourth-overall spot to select Scottie Barnes (who wound up being Rookie of the Year) despite being ranked seventh for the lottery.
Each team will have a representative on stage during their lottery pick presentation, from current players Damian Lillard and PJ Washington, to former players Anderson Varejao, Rip Hamilton and Nick Collison, as well as many basketball operations personnel from each team.
Draft lottery odds
Three teams who had top-five picks last year — the Houston Rockets, Orlando Magic, and Detroit Pistons — all have a 14 per cent chance to pick first overall this time, along with the Oklahoma Thunder, who picked sixth in last year's draft.
Oklahoma benefits from not only their own lottery pick, but also the chance that the Los Angeles Clippers' pick will be No. 1, a spot that Thunder GM Sam Presti acquired in the Paul George trade and controls unprotected.
After the first four teams' odds, the Indiana Pacers have a 10.5 per cent chance of landing No. 1, the Trail Blazers sit at nine per cent, the Sacramento Kings reside at 7.5 per cent and the New Orleans Pelicans have the final best odds at six per cent.
Top prospects available in the draft
Chet Holmgren out of Gonzaga University is believed to be the consensus No. 1 overall pick in the draft, though Purdue's Jaden Ivey played outstanding in the first two rounds of the big dance to help himself move into a comfortable spot as a top prospect. Auburn's Jabari Smith Jr. and Duke's Paolo Banchero are set to go in the top four as well, and Canada's own Shaedon Sharpe is still believed to be a top-five pick despite never stepping foot on the Kentucky court this past season.
Trades that impact the lottery
As previously mentioned, the Thunder own the Clippers' pick, but the fate of the Lakers' pick lies between the Pelicans and the Grizzlies (due to a series of trades involving Antonio Davis, Steven Adams, and Jonas Valanciunas). The end result is the Pelicans get the pick if it ends up in the top 10, while the Grizzlies will receive the pick at No. 11 or 12.
There is a 99.5 per cent chance that New Orleans will get the pick as the Lakers finished eighth in lottery standings, and three teams sitting at seeds nine to 14 would have to receive top four picks for Memphis to get the pick.