“It’s just finding that right balance.”
In the absence of hard information, the tendency is to look for clues that may or not be staring us right in the face, all the way along.
In this case, keep that first quote, from NBA commissioner Adam Silver, in mind.
Officially, the NBA has not finished its investigation into the potential salary cap circumventing scheme the Los Angeles Clippers allegedly used as a salary top-up to make sure Kawhi Leonard was getting all the money he was entitled to and then some on deals dating back to 2021 and 2024.
The latest report by Pablo Torre on his award-winning podcast of a seemingly unlikely endorsement arrangement for Leonard while with the Clippers — in this case, scoreboard manufacturer Daktronics — seems like only more fuel for the bonfire that threatens to bring down the Clippers, their super-rich and powerful owner Steve Ballmer, and derail the trade that was supposed to bring Leonard to the Raptors.
But unofficially?
Per league sources, there’s a belief the investigation has already moved beyond its fact-finding stage and the parties involved — specifically the Clippers and the NBPA (which is monitoring the situation to see what if any consequences befall Leonard) — are working quietly to get the entire issue resolved, something Silver hinted at back on July 14 when he last spoke publicly on the issue.
The most likely outcome?
A negotiated settlement where the NBA gets to enforce some version of its rules, Ballmer can save face and Leonard can play for the Raptors.
Whether Torre’s latest finding is new information to the NBA’s investigation or not — a report in The Athletic last month said a second no-show endorsement deal was already part of the investigation — the sense is that it won’t affect the next stage of the process, namely figuring out what the league is going to do with the information it has collected.
An NBA spokesperson refused comment when reached by Sportsnet about the status of the investigation. A representative of the NBPA didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The Clippers star has been in limbo of sorts as the trade that would have seen him sent from Las Angeles to Toronto in exchange for all-star Brandon Ingram, third-year wing Gradey Dick and draft picks was paused by the Raptors pending the outcome of the investigation.
But all along, there has been a quiet confidence that the trade would ultimately go forward and league business would be able to resume in time for training camps opening on Sept. 28.
Keep in mind that the only month on the NBA calendar where the league goes relatively dormant is August. Don’t underestimate a collective will to leave it all until the first week of September when everyone is back at work.
Even reports last week, in a story in ESPN that the investigation could “drag into 2027” if the NBPA and/or the Clippers took whatever punishment Silver decided on to a potentially lengthy arbitration process, were interpreted positively as an indication that the parties involved were setting the parameters for negotiating a more acceptable — or at least tolerable — outcome for all concerned.
Which is always worth keeping in mind for Raptors fans trying to understand if the Leonard trade will ultimately go through or not: everyone involved in this saga, from the Clippers, to the Raptors, to Leonard, to the league itself, shares a common interest in putting it behind them.
Granted, these investigations can take time. The NFL’s investigation into whether or not Tom Brady used under-inflated footballs the 2015 AFC Championship took nearly two years to be resolved.
The challenge for the league and Silver is how to move on from it while maintaining the credibility of his office and its ability to govern while not causing damage to a league where everyone involved benefits from its collective success.
It’s a tricky path to tread, especially considering that Ballmer has until now been considered a model owner and, by the way, has a roughly $150-billion fortune he can tap into to pay lawyers as necessary.
Even in the absence of a magical confession co-signed by Leonard and Ballmer, the Pulitzer Prize-winning work by Torre would make it extraordinarily difficult for Silver to wave the whole thing away as a nothing burger. But that doesn’t mean the NBA is looking for reasons to drag the league and one of its most powerful and influential owners into a protracted legal battle.
The last time NBA commissioner spoke on the issue was after the NBA Board of Governors meeting in Las Vegas last month.
He said he wanted the investigation to be thorough, comprehensive and fair, while at the same time acknowledging that he has a league to run and that the probe and its findings start and stop with him.
“My understanding is that Wachtell (Lipton, the law firm running the investigation on behalf of the league) is now in the process of going through the information that they have gathered and drawing conclusions from that information,” Silver said. “And I think, yes, it is realistic to think that this can be wrapped up, and I would say needs to be wrapped up, before the beginning of the next season.
“On one hand, of course at the end of the day, as the commissioner in this league, I’m the one who ultimately engaged Wachtell. So sure, I could tell them to stop, and I’ve read those reports where people are saying, just tell them to stop,” Silver added.
“But also the benefit of an independent investigation is they have their own credibility on the line, and presumably, I can count on Wachtell to say to me, ‘well, of course, ultimately if you say we have to stop, we’ll stop. But in our report, we’re going to say we were required to stop before we felt we had a complete understanding of this situation.’
"So it’s just finding that right balance."
Does that sound like someone determined to pursue justice at any cost? Or is Silver giving a glimpse into the pickle he’s trying to work through?
From the Raptors' point of view, the expectation remains that when all is said and done, they will emerge whole, with a seven-time All-NBA selection ready to play and hungry to help them compete in a Eastern Conference that has only gotten better and deeper since the New York Knicks won the NBA title back in June.
By pausing the trade, the Raptors avoided the ultimate downside risk, which would be Leonard on their roster, his contract being voided and them being out the assets they gave up to get him in the first place.
As well, the other commonly cited risk — that Leonard will face a lengthy suspension for his role in the alleged cap circumvention — is something that almost certainly won’t come to pass, a matter than has been under-reported or not reported previously.
The punishments for cap circumvention, it has been pointed out to me, are jointly negotiated by the NBA and the NBPA and written into the league’s collective bargaining agreement.
Nowhere in that language does it say a player can be suspended for participating in cap circumvention. Instead, per the CBA, penalties for salary cap circumvention can include team fines, direct forfeiture of draft picks, the voiding of any player contract and a suspension of up to a year for any team personnel found to have engaged in such a violation, while the player can be required to “disgorge” whatever benefits they gained from a third party in a cap circumvention scheme.
A player suspension is not on the menu.
And what if the entire thing gets tied up in arbitration, the whole ‘drag into 2027’ possibility?
Well, players can continue to play while an arbitration process is ongoing. It’s not something that would keep Leonard off the floor. There is also the possibility — even the likelihood — that any arbitration involving Leonard would be expedited by the NBPA to get it resolved as quickly as possible, effectively separating it from what could be a long and lengthy arbitration process between Ballmer and the league, if it ever gets to that.
And if Leonard’s contract is voided for his role? The Raptors would still have Ingram, Dick and all the draft assets they sent the Clippers, and — in theory — the possibility of signing Leonard to a new contract as a free agent.
What exactly the NBA is going to do to resolve the entire Clippers-Leonard situation remains up in the air. But from a Raptors perspective, the most likely scenario has the 2019 Finals MVP in a Toronto uniform on opening night.
