Perhaps the Golden State edge in the paint doesn’t come down to lack of effort from the Mavericks. The Dubs have outscored Dallas by 56 in the paint and out-rebounded them by 44 over the course of three games, and they’ve done it without a single player over 6’9”. It’s not just effort, it’s a matter of personnel.
We talked about it a lot in the Memphis series, but the Warriors continue to rebound by commission, and the books are finally starting to adjust the player prop numbers for Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins.
I did say, before Game 3, that this series wouldn’t be a sweep. Now, I’m thinking it’ll be a classy Gentleman’s Sweep, with the Mavs taking Game 4 at home before Golden State wraps it all up in five. There’s still plenty of fun to be had here.
Overall record against the spread: 26-26-1
If ever there was a game for the Warriors to take their foot off the gas, it’d be this one. In Game 2, they spotted Dallas 19 points before storming back to win. In Game 3, they won pretty comfortably despite 86 combined points from Luka, Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie. You could make the case it should be 2-1 for Dallas. But the Warriors are up 3-0.
They did that by giving up just 14 points to the rest of the Mavericks’ roster in Game 3. Are the Dallas Mavericks completely overmatched in this series? Yes. Was I (and a surprising number of basketball writers) completely wrong about how close this series would be? Definitely. But the Mavs can still win a game.
I think this Dallas squad is better than Denver was, and even the Nuggets managed to take a game off Golden State in this exact scenario. Denver did it with a monster game from Nikola Jokic and stellar three-point shooting from the supporting cast while forcing the Dubs to turn the ball over.
That’s a formula Dallas can replicate. Plus, no matter how overpowered they may have been, Golden State has found a way to drop a road game in all but 6 of their 22 playoff series in the Steve Kerr era. I like the Mavericks (-1), but I’m going to keep riding Klay Thompson OVER 4.5 rebounds, as well as Andrew Wiggins OVER 5.5 rebounds. This Warrior rebounding thing is clearly real.
I’m going to go with Stephen Curry OVER 3.5 turnovers and Draymond Green OVER 2.5 turnovers, because frankly those are low numbers even for a good Dubs’ game.
The Sicko Same Game Parlay of The Night pays off at +3000
· Klay Thompson OVER 4.5 rebounds
· Andrew Wiggins OVER 5.5 rebounds
· Luka Doncic OVER 3.5 threes made
· Luka Doncic Double Double – Yes
· Stephen Curry OVER 3.5 turnovers
· Draymond Green OVER 2.5 turnovers
As always, play safe and don’t chase.