NCAA Rivalry Week preview: Playoff chase heats up

The NCAA's bowl-game system to determine a football champion — even with the addition of a national championship game — never made much sense to many sports fans used to season-ending playoffs.

The four-team College Football Playoff, introduced in 2014, was perhaps a slight improvement — but still produced oddities, like an unbeaten power-conference team (Florida State) being left out of the final tournament last season.

Finally, this year, the sport developed a system that has created more interest for more fan bases — resulting in a big increase in meaningful, late-season games.

With the CFP committee set to pick 12 teams to compete for a national championship on Dec. 8, the countdown to the bracket feels much like it does ahead of basketball's March Madness.

Debates about strength of schedule and recency bias have been hot and heavy, and won't end until the committee sets the field — which will have the five highest-ranked conference champions and next seven highest-ranked teams.

The bubble had a huge shakeup last week with seven of the top 20 teams losing — including critical third losses for perennial powerhouse Alabama and Ole Miss.

The top four conference champs (not necessarily the power conferences) will receive first-round byes, while seeds 5-8 host first-round games Dec. 20-21.

The rest of the games are played at neutral sites in familiar settings — the quarterfinals are the Fiesta, Rose, Peach and Sugar Bowls (Dec. 31-Jan. 1), the semifinals are the Orange and Cotton Bowls (Jan. 9-10), while the final goes Jan. 20 in Atlanta.

Heading into the final week of regular-season play, also known as Rivalry Week, let's take a look at where things stand:

The favourites

The top-ranked Oregon Ducks (11-0) are the last unbeaten team standing. They wrap the regular season as a heavy favourite against visiting Washington before heading to Indianapolis next week for the Big Ten final.

Their likely opponent for the conference title is Ohio State (10-1), ranked No. 2 in this week's CFP rankings. OSU needs to beat visiting Michigan on Saturday to secure a spot in what would be a heavyweight showdown for a bye before the national tournament.

Oregon beat visiting Ohio State 32-31 in a thriller on Oct. 12. Ducks QB Dillon Gabriel's Heisman Trophy hopes likely ended last time out with an underwhelming performance in a narrow road victory over Wisconsin, but the Oklahoma transfer played one of his best games of the season against OSU (341 passing yards, two throwing touchdowns, one running touchdown).

The next tier

Third-ranked Texas has won four in a row in rather convincing fashion after losing its lone game of the season against Georgia. The visiting Longhorns and No. 20 Texas A&M (8-3) battle it out this weekend for a spot in the SEC final versus Georgia in Atlanta.

The Aggies likely need to win out to earn a CFP spot, while Texas is all but guaranteed a berth.

No. 7 Georgia (9-2) is a strong bet to qualify out of the SEC, too, while Tennessee (9-2) probably needs a road win over Vanderbilt on Saturday to lock itself in.

In the Big Ten, No. 4 Penn State (10-1) is seen as a CFP shoo-in after surviving a scare against Minnesota last week.

No. 5 Notre Dame (10-5), meanwhile, can't earn a top-four seed because it plays as an independent, but the Fightin' Irish have put together a nice resume after a stunning early-season loss to visiting Northern Illinois. Notre Dame will have a great shot at the No. 5 seed if it beats USC on the road in its finale this week.

The other conference champs

No. 9 SMU (10-1), after moving up from the American Athletic Conference, has clinched a spot in the ACC final in its debut season in the power-four league. The Mustangs will face star QB Cam Ward and the No. 6 Miami Hurricanes (10-1) if they beat Syracuse in upstate New York this week, or Clemson if the Orange pull off the upset.

SMU, Miami and No. 12 Clemson (9-2) all have chances to make the CFP, though reaching the ACC final in Charlotte, and then winning it, will feel safer than waiting out the committee. Clemson has a tough out-of-conference rivalry game against 15th-ranked South Carolina (8-3) on Saturday. Clemson currently would be the last team out of the tournament, because a fifth conference champion is ranked below the Gamecocks.

The Big 12, the other power conference, is a big mystery. No. 16 Arizona State (9-2), No. 18 Iowa State (9-2), No. 19 BYU (9-2), and No. 25 Colorado (8-3) are tied for the conference lead and if all four teams win their games this weekend, Arizona State and Iowa State will square off in the conference final. Nine teams remain in play to reach the title tilt in Arlington, Texas.

Colorado, with coach Deion Sanders, two-way player Travis Hunter (a top Heisman contender) and quarterback Shedeur Sanders proving serious star power, lost control of its destiny with a 37-21 loss against Kansas last week.

BYU was unbeaten before losing the last two games, including last week against surging Arizona State, which was picked to finish last in the conference prior to the season.

There is no guarantee the Big 12 champ gets in, though it would be quite the move to leave one of the four power conferences out of the tournament. Tulane (9-2), at No. 17 overall, could have a case if it wins the American Athletic Conference.

The best bet outside the power four for a top-four seed would be the Mountain West champ. No. 11 Boise State (10-1) has been a force all year, with its only loss a 37-34 setback to Oregon. No. 23 UNLV (9-2) likely will face Boise State in the conference final.

Each team features a key Canadian in the defensive backfield. Jett Elad of Mississauga, Ont., suits up for UNLV, while Vancouver's Ty Benefield is a safety for a Boise State team featuring Heisman Trophy-contending running back Ashton Jeanty.

The underdog

Canadian star QB Kurtis Rourke and the Cinderella Indiana Hoosiers (10-1) likely will be in the 12-team field if they beat visiting Purdue (1-10) on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT. It's not quite a sure thing, though — a Texas A&M run to the SEC title might be a scary scenario for the No. 10 Hoosiers.

Speaking of the Hoosiers...

While Indiana is coming off a humbling loss at Ohio State, the surprise team of college football remains in good shape.

Some out-of-town upsets following that defeat — combined with Indiana's oft-criticized strength of schedule looking like less of a factor after adding Ohio State to the mix — helped Indiana's cause.

"I said what I had to say about the College Football Playoff after the game," first-year Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said on Monday, referring to his entertaining back-and-forth with a reporter from two days earlier at Ohio Stadium when he said it was "so obvious" that his team belonged in the Playoff, assuming it could beat Purdue.

"The only thing I'm going to say today is we're sitting in a good spot. But we've got to take care of business. That's that."

To capture the Old Oaken Bucket, which was first awarded to the winner of the game between the state rivals in 1925, the Hoosiers will need to snap the Boilermakers' three-game win streak in the series.

Rourke's numbers have dipped the past two games against Michigan and Ohio State, both of which feature top NFL prospects on defence. He was sacked nine times the past two outings after the team gave up just seven sacks in the first nine games this season.

The Buckeyes made some nice adjustments after Rourke and Indiana marched down the field for a touchdown on their first drive, sending far more pressure at the QB the rest of the way. The Hoosiers, using a silent count to try to overcome a roaring home crowd of 105,000-plus, couldn't give their quarterback enough time to make good throws.

Of course, all offensive lines face a great challenge against better, more athletic opponents. It's now up to Cignetti and his assistants to make their own adjustments to help Rourke become the best version of himself again.

"We've got to take the hits off the quarterback because I don't know a quarterback in the country if he gets hit over and over again, they all lose their effectiveness," Cigentti said.

Games of the week

Georgia Tech at No. 7 Georgia, Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT: This rivalry game is dubbed 'Clean, Old Fashioned Hate.' The Yellow Jackets are 7-4 and ended Miami's unbeaten season earlier this month.

No. 15 South Carolina at No. 12 Clemson, Saturday, 12 p.m. ET / 9 a.m. PT: The Palmetto Bowl is basically an elimination game.

Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State, Saturday, 12 p.m. ET / 9 a.m. PT: Sure, it's a down year for the Wolverines after last season's national championship, but 'The Game' is one of the best traditions in football. Michigan has won the last three editions.

"We felt what it's like to not win this game," Ohio State coach Ryan Day said this week, per ESPN. "It is bad. It's one of the worst things that's happened to me in my life, quite honestly. Other than losing my father and a few other things, like it's quite honestly, for my family, the worst thing that's happened. So we can never have that happen again. Ever. And that's been the approach all season." 

No. 8 Tennessee at Vanderbilt, Saturday, 12 p.m. ET / 9 a.m. PT: Vanderbilt (6-5) stunned Alabama and lost a three-point game to Texas. Can it play spoiler against its bigger state rival?

No. 6 Miami at Syracuse, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET / 12:30 p.m. PT: Syracuse (8-3) has made a nice jump under first-year coach Fran Brown, along with Ohio State transfer quarterback Kyle McCord. Meanwhile, it's a chance for Ottawa-born Hurricanes defensive lineman Akheem Mesidor to play close to home. He had seven tackles and a sack last week in a win over Wake Forest.

No. 3 Texas at No. 20 Texas A&M, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT: We save the best for last. Texas' move to the SEC sets up the first 'Lone Star Showdown' since 2011. There are huge stakes, too, with the winner going to the conference final. As of Wednesday, the get-in price on StubHub was $863.