Week 7 NFL fantasy advice: The return of Matty Ice

Martine Gaillard is joined by Sam Acho to discuss the latest news in the NFL, including the tough choice of deciding who the best team in the league is.

It’s that time of year, people. The Bye-pocalypse is here, which means we all have gaping holes in our rosters to fill as the Cowboys, Bills, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers, and Jaguars are all enjoying some much-needed time off. (Don’t worry, next week only two teams are off.)

There’s a pretty good chance that most fantasy squads roster at least one player from one of those teams, which means we’re all now forced to turn to the dregs of the waiver wire to navigate the treacherous waters of Week 7. Rashaad Penny and Quintez Cephus never looked so appealing (but, seriously, don’t start either of them)!

Looking back on the Thursday nighter, I sure hope some of you started D’Ernest Johnson – what a start from him! His value probably takes a stumble when Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt return, but with the bye-pocalpyse upon us that is one terrific way to buoy your fantasy roster. Javonte Williams owners are likely rejoicing as well, after a performance that, surprisingly, saw him grab six of seven targets for 32 yards and a touchdown. I look forward to ranking him as a top-10 running back once Melvin Gordon has moved on this off-season.

Our weekly picks have been made with 0.5 PPR leagues in mind, with standard rosters of one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end, and one RB/WR/TE FLEX spot.

QUARTERBACKS

QB Start: Matt Ryan, Falcons
After a terrible first week of the season, the 36-year-old veteran quarterback has actually turned in a few nice performances in a row, including a 29-point outburst in Week 4 against Washington and a respectable 21-point outing against the Jets in London in Week 5. He’s coming off his bye week and is now taking on a Dolphins defence that has allowed 13 passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season. Factor in that the Falcons' defence is still largely terrible, which means Ryan will likely be forced to throw early and often for a win. Matty Ice is back, baby.

QB Start: Ryan Tannehill, Titans
Just last week, I opined that the days of ‘Tanne-thrill’ seem to have been put on hold. And sure enough, while he got the win over Buffalo, the Bills hurried and harassed him into a 13-point effort (which was only that high because he salvaged the day with a four-yard rushing score). Now, with A.J. Brown back, Tannehill faces a Chiefs defence that has been terrible against the pass all season long. Kansas City gives up the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Sure, the one-man wrecking crew that is Derrick Henry will always limit Tannehill’s upside, but with Patrick Mahomes & Co. on the other side, he’ll likely have to throw the ball a little more if they want to win.

Other starter to consider: Joe Burrow, Bengals

QB Sit: Taylor Heinicke, Washington
Well, the Heinicke hype train seems to have come to an abrupt end after two straight weeks of less than 12 points. How he managed to underperform against a Chiefs defence that had been shredded by virtually every quarterback it's played this year is beyond me -- all I can say is that maybe teams have finally adjusted to his strengths. The Packers, ranked 17th against opposing signal-callers, aren’t a particularly good matchup for quarterbacks at the best of times so I’d say it’s time to bottle up the Heinicke (sorry) until after Washington’s Week 9 bye.

QB Sit: Justin Fields, Bears
Is it possible that Fields figures it out, maybe even as soon as this season? It absolutely is, and I do sincerely hope he does because he was an electric athlete in college. He even gets a plum matchup this week with a Buccaneers defence that gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. But he has struggled so mightily with Matt Nagy's offence that I can’t in good conscience recommend playing him -- not until he shows some more consistency. Even the value Fields provides on the ground is capped, thanks to a pretty ferocious Tampa Bay rush defence. Stay away until Chicago figures it out.

WIDE RECEIVERS

WR Start: Brandin Cooks, Texans
One of the players I was highest on this year coming into draft season, Brandin Cooks has not disappointed. Even with the past two predictably down games – the Bills and Patriots are not always kind to teams that only have one true weapon like the Texans do – he still has 57 (!) targets on the season and will essentially always carry upside because of the sheer volume he sees. He now gets an Arizona defence that gives up the 11th-most points to wide receivers in a game that sees the Texans as significant underdogs in. Look for Davis Mills to chuck the ball in Cooks’ direction early and often.

WR Start: Jakobi Meyers, Patriots
Meyers is mentioned here as a start largely because of the bye-pocalypse we all find ourselves in, but the truth is he actually returns a decent stat line most weeks for someone who likely is your WR3. He has 52 targets on the year, which for an offence that simply does not pass the ball a whole lot is pretty terrific. His value lies mostly in half or full PPR formats, but even against a stingy Jets pass defence (third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers), there's a good chance Mac Jones is throwing the ball to Meyers.

Other starter to consider: Darnell Mooney, Bears

WR Sit: Tyler Boyd, Bengals
Since Tee Higgins returned from injury, Boyd has been all but ignored, grabbing eight targets combined over the past few weeks. He is very talented, but is clearly third on the Cincinnati depth chart. Until we see Burrow start to sling the ball a little more (he was pulled early from last week’s massive win over Detroit once the Bengals were up big), you’ll have to keep him on the bench.

WR Sit: All Lions WRs
The unfortunate truth is that the top two fantasy options in Detroit are T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift, neither of whom are wide receivers. Jared Goff is just too inconsistent to trust any one of his Lions WRs on a regular basis as anything more than a DFS fill-in at the end of your lineup. Stay away, even during this heavy bye week.

RUNNING BACKS

RB Start: Devonta Freeman, Ravens
Let’s get this out of the way now: this is largely dependent on Latavius Murray, who is dealing with an ankle injury. If Murray does suit up – and it could be a game-time decision – then I’d recommend staying away from this backfield, especially because we all know that Lamar Jackson himself runs quite a bit. However, even in last week’s big win over the Chargers, Freeman out-gained Murray 53-44 on the ground, and scored a touchdown to boot. He’s a volatile play, that’s for sure -- one with a low floor and a decently high ceiling – but one I’ll take a risk on considering the many options unavailable this week.

RB Start: Darrel Williams, Chiefs
After wringing our hands about Clyde Edwards-Helaire virtually all season, Darrel Williams came in for his first full game as the starting running back and took the job all for himself. Williams had two touchdowns to go with 62 yards, but almost more importantly, is this: Of the 24 carries that went to Chiefs running backs last week, Williams had 21 of them. That is true workhorse stuff. Even with Patrick Mahomes chucking the ball for Kansas City, Williams is a worthwhile play until Edwards-Helaire returns.

Other starter to consider: Damien Harris, Patriots

RB Sit: Jamaal Williams, Lions
It was a season-low four carries for Williams last week against the Bengals, as he has largely operated as the Lions’ play-from-ahead running back option so far this season. When the running gets tough, the snaps are ceded to D’Andre Swift. If you believe that’s still going to be the case this week – a matchup against the superior Rams (in Los Angeles, to boot) – then it’s probably best to avoid playing Williams this week.

RB Sit: Kenyan Drake, Raiders
Drake has got to have one of the oddest stat lines of the season so far: he scored 20-plus points, including a season-high 73 yards from scrimmage, with two touchdowns on just six touches. It’s possible his usage is expanded somewhat under interim head coach Rich Bisaccia, but to play him this week would be the definition of chasing the points -- even against an Eagles defence that is, to say the least, generous against the run. He is absolutely worth a stash, should things tilt more towards him, but let’s wait and see for now.

TIGHT ENDS

TE Start: Dallas Goedert, Eagles
This is conditional upon Goedert passing health and safety protocols, as he missed the last Eagles game while on the COVID list. However, with Zach Ertz shipped off to Arizona, the team clearly thinks he’ll be ready to go for Sunday’s game against the Raiders – a team that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends, including four touchdowns to TEs in the last three games. I’ve long said that if Goedert ever got the chance to be the featured pass-catching tight end, he would make believers out of a lot of people. Well, here’s his chance!

TE Start: Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington
Seals-Jones is here because, as I’ve been saying all season long, the tight end spot is so incredibly thin that any production you can eke out of the waiver wire is production you have to take. Seals-Jones had nine catches, 99 yards, and one touchdown over the last two weeks and has done a pretty nice job filling in for the injured Logan Thomas. I like his value as a lower-end TE1.

Other starter to consider: Mike Gesicki, Dolphins

TE Sit: Will Dissly/Gerald Everett, Seahawks
I really want to trust Dissly, who was terrific a few years ago before a pretty bad injury, but even with the touchdown last week he still only caught two passes. Gerald Everett is back off the COVID list, which crushes Dissly’s value, but with Geno Smith as the quarterback for now every single Seahawks pass-catcher takes a huge hit. When Russell Wilson returns later in the year, let’s revisit this, but they both need to stay either on your bench or the waiver wire for now.

TE Sit: Mo Alie-Cox, Colts
Alie-Cox has actually caught three touchdown passes over the past three weeks (including two in Week 4), which puts him in the upper half of all tight ends in the NFL. Great, right? Unfortunately, you’re basically hoping for a touchdown or bust these days with him, as he has three catches or less in each of the last three weeks, and now has a date with a 49ers defence that has allowed a league-low 21 targets on the season. I think better days are still ahead for him, but maybe look elsewhere in Week 7.

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