For the second consecutive year, the Jacksonville Jaguars are on the clock with the No. 1 overall draft pick. Unlike last year, however, they’ve actually got a real decision to make.
Last spring, everybody knew Trevor Lawrence would be the first overall pick. He’d spent all season atop the draft board before Jacksonville rolled out the red carpet to welcome their QB of the future just as Cincinnati had done for Joe Burrow in 2020.
This year, however, we’ve got intrigue at No. 1 overall as the first and biggest question we ask every year – who will be the first overall pick? – has no easy or obvious answer.
Having this much intrigue at the top of the draft is fitting, considering the wild flurry of off-season action that kicked off the new league year six weeks ago. The nonstop blockbuster trades and big-money signings have only added to the sense of unknown as we enter draft season. Some teams’ eagerness to fill roster spots via the trade market rather than the draft suggests a class filled with question marks – particularly at the quarterback position – while others look poised to make big splashes with multiple first-rounders.
Round 1 of the draft kicks off Thursday night beginning at 8 p.m. ET, followed by Rounds 2 and 3 beginning at 7 p.m. ET Friday. Saturday’s action opens at noon with Rounds 4 through 7.
This year’s event, back in its full in-person glory once again, takes place in Las Vegas. (Vegas was supposed to host the 2020 event before the pandemic forced everything remote.)
Here are some storylines we’re watching as we look ahead to the 2022 NFL Draft.
Without a consensus No. 1 overall pick, the intrigue starts early
The lack of a no-brainer No. 1 isn’t to say this year’s draft class is weak overall – it’s actually quite deep, and with a lot of strong NFL-ready players. It’s more about the fact that scouts and draft assessors and analysts haven’t all joined together to sing the praises on one guy at the very top.
There’s immense pressure on Jacksonville to make the right call this year so they don’t once again find themselves at the bottom of the standings and atop the draft order next year for a third straight season.
Cue the intrigue early and often in this one.
Expect an early rush on edge rushers
If you’ve been studying some of the many mock drafts out there, you’ll notice the same handful of defensive ends and linemen hovering around those top spots. It’s looking likely that we’ll see edge rushers like Michigan's Aidan Hutchinson, Georgia's Travon Walker and Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux snatched up quickly, with Hutchinson and Walker showing up most often in the No. 1 spot.
Offensive linemen like Alabama's Evan Neal and North Carolina State's Ikem Ekwonu factor prominently in the single-digit selections, too, making this a strong draft when it comes to those foundational players every team needs.
Wide receivers could be the stars of the show
Once the expected early run of pass rushers is through, it shouldn’t be long before we see a wave of pass catchers swiftly selected. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see two wide receivers selected in the top 10 and as many as seven or eight go in the first round with most being taken in the middle of the round.
In terms of teams to watch, Green Bay headlines the bunch. The Packers haven’t drafted a wide receiver in Round 1 since 2002, but considering they just paid Aaron Rodgers big money and then shipped off his best weapon in Davante Adams, no team needs a high-profile wide receiver (or two!) like Green Bay. Kansas City is in a similar boat following the departure of Tyreek Hill to Miami.
Wide receiver names to watch in Round 1 include Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, USC’s Drake London, Alabama’s Jameson Williams, North Dakota State’s Christian Watson, Arkansas’s Treylon Burks, and Penn State’s Jahan Dotson.
Might QB Watch start at No. 16…?
One of the reasons this year’s draft class hasn’t been as heralded as those in recent seasons is due to the quarterback class, which doesn’t appear to have the kind of can’t-miss player we’re used to seeing near the top of teams’ draft boards. This isn’t to say, of course, that a future MVP isn’t in this group of QBs, but early projections aren’t exactly in their favour… so much so, that it’s unclear if we’ll see a QB taken in the top 10 or even the top 15 this year based on some mock drafts.
Only twice since 2000 have we seen an NFL draft play out without a quarterback being selected in the top 15. In the 2013 draft, E.J. Manuel was the first QB off the board when he was selected 16th overall. Thirteen years earlier, Chad Pennington was the first quarterback taken at 18th overall during the 2000 draft – a draft that will forever be remembered for the selection that came in 181 picks later: Tom Brady, 199th overall.
Since 2000, we’ve seen a total of 47 QBs drafted in the top 15, including 40 in the top 10 and 16 selected first overall. This year’s lacklustre class stands out even more considering the run on QBs we saw last year when a trio of gunslingers were selected with the top three picks followed by two more to round out the first half of the draft. We’re also coming off a string of four straight years with a No. 1 overall QB.
While there are certainly teams with significant need at the position picking in the top half of the draft – think Detroit at No. 2, Houston at No. 3, Carolina at No. 6, Seattle at No. 9 – picking one of these QB at one of those slots could be considered more of a gamble than in years past.
If there is a QB selected in the first half – or even the top 10 – insiders are pointing to Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett as the two most likely candidates. Both need to be properly developed, but Willis’ exciting NFL-calibre skillset and Pickett’s projection to be able to step into an NFL lineup right away make them names to watch.
We could see a second rush of trades
Draft night drama isn’t limited to pick and prospect, and with so many trade rumours swirling these days it’s possible we could see another flurry of action on the trade market.
With widespread reports of Deebo Samuel’s desire to leave San Francisco, Baker Mayfield’s days in Cleveland decisively done, D.K. Metcalf potentially on the move, Jimmy Garoppolo facing an uncertain future, to name a few… we could be in for an interesting trade market at the draft if teams can’t find what they’re looking for on the draft board.
The draft is in Vegas, but all the action is in New York
While the spotlight will technically be fixed on the draft stage of Sin City, all eyes will be on a different destination Thursday night: New York.
The Jets and Giants each have two top-10 picks and plenty of roster needs. The Jets will make their first selection at fourth overall followed by the 10th pick, thanks to the 2020 trade that sent Jamal Adams to Seattle. The Giants have the fifth overall pick, followed by No. 7, which originally belonged to Chicago but was part of last year’s draft night deal that allowed the Bears to move into position to select Justin Fields.
Houston is in a similar position, with two picks in the top half of the draft (Nos. 3 and 13), while the Lions (2, 32), Eagles (15, 18), Saints (16, 19), Packers (22, 28), and Chiefs (29, 20) all have multiple picks in the first round.
Jaguars, Chiefs are rich in picks
Overall, beyond just the first round, Jacksonville and Kansas are the teams expected to leave Vegas with the biggest draft hauls. The Jaguars and Chiefs have the most 2022 picks of any of team, with 14 each.
The team with the fewest picks is Miami, with just four selections – unsurprising, considering they sent a pretty big bundle to K.C. in exchange for star receiver Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins’ first pick of the draft doesn’t come until after the third round (102 overall; a compensatory pick). After that, they’ve got a fourth-rounder and a pair of sevenths.
Of course, you don’t need a lot of picks to stir up intrigue – just look at the Carolina Panthers, who pick sixth Thursday night and then don’t have another selection until the fourth round, 131 selections later. With such a long list of draft needs and a dearth of prime picks to fulfill them, how does Carolina proceed? If they reach for a QB, it’s possible we see a run on the position earlier than expected. If they choose to take the first wide receiver off the board, suddenly clubs further back in Round 1 will feel the pressure to trade down so they don’t miss out.
Adding to the interest here is Ben McAdoo’s media hiccup (Ben’s McAdon’t?) last week, which saw the offensive coordinator tell reporters Sam Darnold was, indeed, the Panthers’ starting QB… before quickly walking it back, admitting he’d said too much.
The Los Angeles Rams aren’t much richer in draft capital – the GM famous for trading picks (and wearing his strategy on his shirt) has eight picks this year (five of which are compensatory) and won’t be calling in any picks until No. 104 (compensatory). Les Snead’s first non-compensatory pick isn’t until the very end of the fifth round (175th overall). They’ve already won the draft, though:
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