It has already been an off-season of significant change in Toronto, and more could be on the way.
Maple Leafs defenceman Morgan Rielly, who has played almost 1,000 games for the franchise over 13 seasons, could leave this summer. As Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos wrote late last month, “Toronto is looking into things, Rielly is aware of it, and he will be presented with a few options if they arise.” Rielly, 32, has four years left on his contract with a $7.5 million cap hit and a no-movement clause, but Kypreos reported that “the belief is (Rielly’s trade protection) wouldn’t be a major hurdle to overcome.”
“My desire to stay in Toronto is always going to be there,” Rielly told The Athletic in April. “There’s a number of (reasons), but a big one is loyalty. Loyalty to the team that drafted you, I think that’s a powerful thing.”
Rielly was one of the NHL’s top offensive defencemen at his peak, recording 202 points over 266 games (0.76 per game) between the 2018-19 and 2021-22 seasons. As recently as the 2023-24 season, Rielly totaled 58 points in 72 games (0.81 per game). But his offensive production has been in steady decline over the past couple of seasons. He averaged 0.46 points per game this season, his lowest output since 2016-17.
The drop-off in possession-driving plays has been most evident. Rielly’s 19.7 possession-driving plays, which include controlled exits and entries, ranked 41st out of the roughly 200 defencemen who played at least 40 games this regular season. Although that is still respectable, Rielly finished eighth in possession-driving plays in 2023-24 between Norris Trophy winners Cale Makar and Roman Josi. (This season, Rielly was sandwiched by St. Louis’ Colton Parayko and Seattle’s Vince Dunn in that category.)
Part of that decline can be attributed to former Maple Leafs coach Craig Berube’s style of play, which suppressed Rielly’s strengths. Toronto relied less on its defencemen to push the puck up ice under Berube compared to predecessor Sheldon Keefe. As a result, Rielly, never known for his defensive prowess, struggled in Berube’s north-south system.
Rielly was on the ice for 78 goals against at five-on-five this season, ahead of only Minnesota’s Quinn Hughes (82) among defencemen. His 48.8 expected-goal rate at five-on-five ranked 116th among the roughly 200 qualified defencemen who played at least 40 games.
“The work that this team will have to put in to get back to where we want to be is extensive,” Rielly told reporters at the end of the season. “Being outshot and (spending) too much time in (the defensive zone) are things that we need to improve on.”
It stands to reason that a more offensive-minded coach could get more out of Rielly, who still has the speed to be an effective puck mover. His max skating speed this season ranked in the 87th percentile, according to NHL EDGE. (Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that Peter Laviolette and Patrick Roy are among the 15 coaches who have taken part in virtual interviews with the Maple Leafs.)
Last week, Sportsnet’s Ryan Dixon listed six possible trade destinations for Rielly. They ranged from up-and-coming teams (Anaheim, San Jose) to veteran clubs looking for a boost on the back end (Pittsburgh, Winnipeg).
Rielly’s days as a big-minute, first-pair defenceman are probably behind him. But he still has value as an offensive contributor in the right environment. It all depends on whether Rielly wants to leave the only organization he has known.
“I’ve always loved being in Toronto and being a part of this organization,” Rielly told reporters. “It’s very meaningful to me, and I’ve enjoyed every minute of it. … After a year like this, after any year but especially one (this) disappointing, change is bound to happen. As an athlete, you have to be prepared for that. It’s not the first time that it’s crossed my mind.”
All stats via Sportlogiq
