Can Ondrej Kase stay healthy for a Maple Leafs playoff run?

Toronto Maple Leafs forward Ondrej Kase says that he is feeling great after participating in practice the day after taking a huge hit from Calgary Flames defenceman Nikita Zadorov, and is thankful that Morgan Rielly stepped up for him.

Ondrej Kase’s history with injuries is the reason he was available to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the off-season, and the sole reason he was available on a paltry one-year deal worth just $1.25 million. I say “only,” as he was coming off a three-year deal worth $7.8 million and entering his prime.

But let’s do a quick review of the Kase story for context: He’s flat-out good. He’s just 26, he scored 20 in 66 games in 2017-18, and was on pace for better in 2018-19 when an injury left him stuck on 11 goals in 30 games. He managed to get in 55 games the next year, but struggled with injuries yet again, and his production dropped off. Last season he played just three games, and so, found himself in the bargain bin and available to the Leafs.

But young guys who can contribute in the league have rarely fluked into their success, and Kase did it with another element that made him appealing: he showed a dogged work ethic that made him valuable even when he wasn’t scoring. He’s a prized asset, but of course, the problem simply became his failure to live up to the adage that “one of the most important abilities is availability.”

Now there’s good news and bad news for Leafs fans: the low-risk gamble they took on Kase has paid off in spades. That’s good. He’s become super valuable for them, putting up offence from the third line (he’s got 10 goals in 38 games) while becoming an aggressive penalty killer and useful piece of the second unit power play. He can toggle up into the top-six when there’s a need, and in my estimation, is likely the best fit for a John Tavares-William Nylander duo who could use help some nights getting engaged, while having the finishing ability to work with skilled guys.

On a cap-strapped team like the Leafs, getting that kind of value out of $1.25 million is immeasurably important, and part of the reason the Leafs have been so successful this season. He’s been crucial depth. And unfortunately that’s bad. Or at least a concern.

It’s a concern because it’s impossible to shake the reality that “one of the most important abilities is availability,” and I’m not at all confident important-piece Ondrej Kase is a guy who’s going to be at Sheldon Keefe’s disposal come early May, let alone late June were the Leafs to go on a run.

There are some players who are more injury prone than others, which happens for a number of reasons. Of course, some guys are just physically constructed in a way that doesn’t make them as hardy, all humans are not created physically equal. Some guys just have super bad luck, there’s no blame to go around when a deflection or high stick finds the wrong place, or an awkward fall results in something like what happened to Tavares in Round 1 of last season’s playoffs.

But let’s not pretend that the way guys play has nothing to do with who gets hurt and who doesn’t. As much as you’d like to think those players who are the hardiest stock -- the biggest warriors out there -- would be the ones who never miss games, that’s not how it plays out in reality. The league leaders of the ironman board (for consecutive games played) aren’t heavyweights and grinders -- it’s Keith Yandle and Henrik Sedin and Phil Kessel. A guy like Patrick Kane dresses in 95 per cent of his team’s games because he’s savvy and sneaky and damn-near never gets hit.

You know who gets hit? Ondrej Kase, like a truck, just about every game. You cannot have watched him play 38 times through the Leafs' first 46 games without having thought “There it is, that’s the one that’s gonna put him out for the season” a minimum of a half-dozen times.

It's also not worth pretending players don’t have different levels of pain tolerance and varying degrees of willingness to play through pain, because they so obviously do. Anyone who’s played a decent level of hockey has had teammates who don’t seem to be able to handle a hangnail, which I mention as a feather in the cap for the names I mentioned above (Yandle, Sedin, Kessel, Kane). Nobody plays all that hockey without a huge willingness to play through annoying, nagging pains.

I also bring that up because Kase absolutely has that willingness to play through injury and pain. He has been a warrior. That this guy has gotten pasted as often as he has this season yet continues to pull on the skates and get back out there is a testament to his toughness. What’s funny is, he doesn’t even get hit more than your average forward (he’s somewhere around 100th in the league among wingers in hits taken), he just gets hit harder because he puts himself in such bad spots.

What I see is a player who is super hungry to create offence. From the word “go” this season I think he’s been out to prove himself on the stat sheet, knowing that stockpiling statistics would go a long way to earning a bigger, more secure next contract. This was the definition of a “prove it” year for him, and he’s proving it with his play. His numbers aren’t massive -- if he plays over 70 games he could threaten 20 goals and 40 points -- but they’re really good for a depth guy, and he’s so effective that even without the offence any team would love to have him.

A healthy him.

That desire to create offence seems to be part of what’s putting him in such bad spots. He’s dogged in the D-zone, and the second it looks like there might be a turnover, he’s gone, eager to push the pace off the rush, drive back the opposition, and get the play going the other way. That’s led to Kase being a positive play driver by the numbers despite being on a line that’s typically getting buried in the D-zone with defensive assignments.

The problem he seems to be trying to solve every night: I’m playing 14:09 per game, which is ninth amongst Leafs forwards. I’m mostly starting in the D-zone against good opposition. But I need points in my “prove it” year, so every chance I get, I’ve gotta GO.

Kase is sixth on the Leafs in rush chances for, and among NHL forwards who’ve been given under 600 minutes of ice time, he’s in the top-20 in rush chances. I can see him pushing there.

And this has been the result. He gets to racing up the ice before he looks to see if there’s anything in his way, and it’s like speeding into a train tunnel before checking for that important single headlight.

The thing is, it doesn’t always end in the contact that becomes replay fodder for us here at Sportsnet. It’s just as common that he’s narrowly avoiding some disaster and I feel like I can barely watch, waiting for the inevitable (like the Nikita Zadorov play).

Watch him come up the near wall here, and imagine how it goes different if the defender has a Niklas Kronwall moment.

Nothing came of it, but gol-ly, have a look up-ice.

Even here, the D decides to skate with him in the middle and tries to defend without contact (and Kase makes a nice rush of it), but it shouldn’t be assumed everyone will play that way.

There just seems to be some lack of self-preservation in moments where I’d like to see him cut back (like in the example below), or at least throw some deception (a pause or stutter-step?) when you know you’re lined up so you can hope to take more of a glancing blow than direct contact.

(This play also starts with Kase up in the rush and in traffic, so if he does get a pass, he’s once again in the Scott Stevens wheelhouse.)

The game has changed, there’s no doubt about that. I mentioned Scott Stevens and Niklas Kronwall, if either of those guys played against Kase, ushers would be picking his equipment out of the 25th row. Because there are fewer of those guys today, Kase can get away with some of this. But eventually he’s going to be on the wrong end of The Big One, even in this era.

If you’re the Leafs, you love the way Kase plays with his hustle and willingness to engage physically and take contact, and so you’d be nervous to pull him aside and say “play more scared.” Of course, you’d phrase it differently, but you’d be worried about getting it into his head in a way that makes him timid and not the player he’s been. He’s not so talented that he could get away with taking William Nylander amounts of contact (almost none) and still be useful. So it’s a thin line.

The answer for them though, boils down to “the best ability is availability.” If you let Kase continue charging up-ice into the wall of on-rushing enemies like it’s Braveheart, he’s not going to be available to them when they’re going to need him most.

They need to ask him to play lower in the D-zone so he’s receiving pucks level and not while glancing back, and he needs to shoulder check up the rink before skating into the neutral zone, even if that means bobbling the odd pass that comes his way.

Kase has been too good and too effective so far in this “prove it” year. The last thing the Leafs need him to do is prove other teams right that seemed more skeptical of his ability to be available this past off-season.

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