Key factors in each Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 1 series

NHL Insider Frank Seravalli joins Eric Thomas on Sportsnet Central to highlight series to keep an eye on in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the teams under the most pressure to win, and more.

The 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs are kicking off Monday night, so we’re looking around each series to pinpoint a key factor — good or bad — on each side of the match up.

With 16 teams and eight series to match up, let’s dive right in.

Florida’s one of the most exciting teams in the league thanks to their offensive firepower, which helps them come back in games that seem out of reach. It’s no surprise to see that they’re the third-best team in the league at generating offence while behind in games, with 3.12 expected goals per 60 at 5-on-5 that they slightly exceed with their results.

While this is an incredibly exciting brand of hockey, the question these next few weeks is going to be sustainability when the stakes are higher.

On the flip side of the equation, the question is how the Capitals' crease will handle that workload from one of the deepest teams in the league. They don’t have a true No. 1 goaltender who they can comfortably rely on. Ilya Samsonov allowed almost 13 goals above expected in all situations this season, while Vitek Vanecek performed better with a final GSAx of minus-1.66. That betters the chances of the Panthers maintaining their style.

Prediction: Panthers

The Lightning have a definite edge in net with Andrei Vasilevskiy, who saved 13.7 goals above expected in all situations this year. That’s actually relatively low by his standards (compared to the 16.4 more goals he saved above expectations in 21 games fewer). And Tampa Bay knows he can turn it on in the playoffs as well, he earned a 12.3 GSAx on their way to victory last year. That’s difference-maker potential that could stop the Maple Leafs from getting out of the first round.

Something to watch is how Toronto manages to finish against that. Everyone knows Auston Matthews can score in any which way, and just pepper goaltenders with quality shots. But aside from him, this is one area the team’s fallen short. At 5-on-5, the Leafs have only scored 3.31 goals above expected — with their skill and shooting talent, it should likely be quite a bit above that.

Prediction: Lightning

The whistles tend to get put away in the playoffs, but a team like the Hurricanes who have a propensity to take minors could find themselves down a player from time-to-time. But as we learned in the regular season, they could manage that time short-handed thanks to their penalty killing strategy that had the best expected goals rate against (4.28 per 60) and created a higher rate of shots for.

That’s going up against a Bruins power play that has a healthy David Pastrnak, making him the key factor to watch. Boston went 0-for-27 on the power play while he was out of the lineup. It wasn’t just a matter of running into hot goalies, either. They only created 4.64 expected goals for per 60. Compare that to their entire regular season, where their quality chance generation ranked third in the league at 8.59 per 60. The concern is whether they rely too much on one player, if it all falls apart when he’s out. But the fact is, he’s back in the lineup and that should boost their play.

Prediction: Hurricanes

Igor Shesterkin’s the Rangers’ backbone. His play hasn’t just been worthy of the Vezina, but the Hart Trophy as well. That makes him the key factor in this series. While the Rangers have made some improvements over the last stretch, especially back in their own zone, their goaltender is their greatest weapon. Shesterkin led the league with 40.7 goals saved above expected. And the Penguins have to find a way to get past it.

Their best weapons? Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel. Maybe that’s the boring answer, but there’s a marquee matchup that could highlight this series. Crosby’s seventh in the league with his pass volume at 5-on-5, and 10th in his puck movement to the slot. That doesn’t even touch on his shooting. Then there’s Guenztel, who takes over 64 per cent of his shots from the slot, driving there at the seventh best rate in the league. The Rangers’ defence is going to have to find ways to close off opportunities for these players, but their last line of defence is obviously back in net.

Prediction: Rangers


The Colorado Avalanche are one of the deepest teams in the league. They’re star studded at the top. Nazem Kadri’s coming off a career year, as is Val Nichushkin who showed a level of offence that measures up to his strong defence. Plus they added another disrupter in Artturi Lehkonen at the deadline. Oh, and Cale Makar and Devon Toews highlight the backend.

Colour us surprised to see the Avalanche are the third-best team in the league at generating offence from the slot. They’re the best team at creating scoring chances off the rush with 7.64 slot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5. They move down one ranking when it comes to generating off the cycle. And that’s after a regular season where they lost key players for stretches.

Now the Predators have to matchup against that without their starting goalie. Juuse Saros saved 17.7 goals above expected this season, with a league-leading 30 quality starts and 10 steals. Instead, it’s David Rittich who is going to have to manage. Good luck.

Prediction: Avalanche

We know both teams can score. With Matt Boldy in the fold, Minnesota finally has a match for Kevin Fiala giving them three strong lines to contend with. The Blues, on the other hand, have nine 20-goal scorers. These two teams are very close in their expected goal generation, with the Wild taking the edge in results at 5-on-5.

The key factor here isn’t as much what they can create. Rather, it’s what they can defend.

The Wild keep their opponents to 2.23 expected goals against per 60 at 5-on-5. That’s the fourth-best in the league. The Blues, on the other hand, are 24th in the league after conceding 2.67 expected goals against per 60. St. Louis allows more off the rush and the cycle than their Round 1 opponent. So how they fare in this post-season may come down to defence above all else given that both have capable goaltenders and forwards. 

Prediction: Wild

The Flames have a ton of skill up and down their lineup, but the focal point has to be at the top. Johnny Gaudreau’s elevated himself into the Hart conversation with his elite transitional play, stellar passing, and of course, his shooting abilities. Matthew Tkachuk’s thrived, reaching career highs. Elias Lindholm’s two-way presence helps make this combination click. In their league-leading 970 minutes together, they drive play to a 66 per cent expected goals rate.

On the flip side, we expect a lot from the Stars’ leading trio. They’re second in the league in minutes played together, and also drive play to a 66 per cent expected goals rate. Jason Robertson is an outstanding goal scorer, and can set up his teammates. So can two-way centre Roope Hintz who can recover loose pucks and get into the zone with possession. Joe Pavelski’s worked on his passing game too, which pairs well with his ability to redirect pucks.

There’s a big difference in circumstance; the Flames have support down the lineup for their top-three while the Stars are barren of offence when their best aren’t deployed.

Prediction: Flames

Connor McDavid once again had an MVP-calibre season on his way to winning the Art Ross. He can carry the puck up the ice with ease; he’s quick and evasive, and can read plays and create passing lanes for his linemates. At even strength, the Oilers have legitimately split him and Leon Draisaitl up, which keeps a lethal scoring threat in another combination, giving the team a better 1-2 punch up front.

The Oilers are set to take on the Kings, a team now with two shutdown centres. Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault are the key factors here. By having both, Los Angeles can ease the workload of each, instead of subjecting one to solely shutdown minutes. But in this series, they’re going to be put to the task against two of the league’s best. Kopitar’s shown his ability to handle that throughout his prime. Danault did all last post-season too, limiting Auston Matthews and Mark Stone along the way. Now they have the potential to be the disrupters against the favourites in this series.

Prediction: Oilers

Data via Sportlogiq

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