Maple Leafs Mailbag: Do Marner, Tavares, Knies all re-sign?

The Toronto Maple Leafs — winners of five of their past six — are riding out of the final weekend of the regular season hot. This 50-win contender locked up home ice in Round 1 and is on the brink of securing its first-ever Atlantic Division crown (magic number: 1). And the Leafs have bought into the stingiest defensive style of the "Core Four" era, which feels conducive for (gasp) post-season success.

So, naturally, when we tossed out the call for mailbag queries, Leafs Nation pounded us with questions about the off-season: How much money will get tossed around? Who gets it? Who leaves? And how quickly?

Never change, sports fans. We love you.

Does Mitch sign? — @Ron_2560

Ah, the $14-million (times eight) question.

My best gauge on the situation, Ron, is that neither Marner nor general manager Brad Treliving knows the answer to this one yet. Both parties will use the playoffs to gather information.

Marner, once again hunting 100 points, has continued to come up clutch since his golden moment at the 4 Nations Face-Off.

But the real test — not only for Marner individually but the concept of rolling out four eight-figure forwards and pinching pennies on support players — begins this weekend.

Is Treliving so impressed by Marner’s contributions to a deep playoff run that he meets the sky-high price set by agent Darren Ferris in a suddenly player-friendly market where Marner is the undisputed top free agent?

That Treliving considered moving Marner for Mikko Rantanen tells you everything you need to know — and that Marner’s camp is hell-bent on playing this contract year out — speaks volumes about how tenuous this situation is.

More relevant, in my opinion, is how Marner feels once Toronto’s playoff ends. Do the Leafs get a taste of Round 3, making the all-star winger believe that he wants to finish business? Or does he feel targeted by criticism in the wake of a ninth (!) early exit?

With the cap spiking, we suspect multiple rival franchises — Chicago, Utah, Seattle, Los Angeles, Carolina, to name only a handful — would love to make Marner even richer than he is now.

If he wants to take a slight hometown discount, Marner could stay a Maple Leaf, break a bunch of franchise records, and no one would ever wear No. 16 in this town again.

If he wants the highest AAV possible, he's gone.

Flip a coin.

Grab a bag of popcorn.

Do you think John Tavares would be willing to go just below $6 million? —@FishysaysGLG

Unlike the Marner file, the Maple Leafs hold nearly all leverage with Tavares, who has been crystal clear about his desire to re-sign and keep his young family in Toronto.

“Year 16, I’ve done very well in the league financially,” said Tavares, who has earned more than $111 million (U.S.) in career earnings and has kept the peace as well as his pace.

“There will come a time when it’ll get addressed, and it’ll get taken care of. So, I just go out and enjoy playing.”

As badly as a player wants to stay put, however, there is a line.

There is pride and respect.

Look no further than the Tampa Bay Lightning’s lowballing of franchise face Steven Stamkos last summer. Stamkos, who was coming off an 81-point campaign, now makes $8 million (tax-free) per season to wear mustard.

Below $6 million, even with signing bonuses and extended term, borders on disrespect to me.

The year is 2025, not 2018, but Tavares is once again the best UFA centre available. He is still putting up a point per game and has actually scored more contract-year goals (38) this season than he did with the Islanders in ’18 (37) — despite playing seven fewer games.

The cap ceiling is higher, and the future is brighter than when Stamkos signed a year ago. Keeping Tavares below $8 million on a short-term deal would be a win for the team. Keeping him below $7 million on something longer is a more reasonable goal.

Decide to pass on a Tavares extension, and other UFA centre options are scarce.

Matt Duchene? Sam Bennett? Brock Nelson? Pius Suter? Mikael Granlund?

Give me Tavares. Most of those others could well re-sign with their current clubs, too.

Long-term deal or bridge deal for Kniesy? —@Southpaw_Cal

Treliving is likely to sort out the futures of the aforementioned UFAs before attacking the increasingly intriguing Matthew Knies file.

Knies does not have arbitration rights, and we don’t see a world where he voluntarily signs an offer sheet. He’s not exactly sick of all this power-play time and all these primo shifts with Marner and Auston Matthews.

Remember: Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg felt underused.

The Knies situation is reminiscent of Evan Bouchard’s in 2023: The team recognizes it has a unique, homegrown talent and would prefer to lock him up as long as possible. But buying those juicy UFA seasons means a significant AAV, and we are stuck living in a cap world.

If Marner walks, the odds of going long-term with Knies go up.

If Marner stays, Treliving is telling assistant GM Brandon Pridham to bust out the calculator and figure out how many years of Knies to buy.

We’d want to go deep if possible. Knies’s size and skill set seldom come along, let alone in a 22-year-old who is built for both playoff hockey and Craig Berube’s identity.

What the Leafs should not do is walk this kid straight to UFA, which is what they did with Matthews.

If budget prohibits big term, sign Knies for two years, and use that time to see how well he can drive his own line once in a while.

Could the season ever be shortened? —@LeafsChronicle

Please make it so.

But, sadly, no.

There are many things I remain against about the NHL. I’m anti-expansion, anti-helmet ads, and definitely anti–82–game regular season.

The schedule is too long and too gruelling and too insignificant. Just look at all the superstars — Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Leon Draisaitl, Jack Eichel, Brad Marchand, et al. — taking the last week off.

Alas, there is a vast canyon between my wishes and our watered-down reality.

We’re going to see an 84-game schedule before a 78-game one, and we’ll get 36 teams before we chop it down to 30.

More is more. This is a gate league. And Wu-Tang schooled us long ago that cash rules everything around me.

What are your thoughts on the performance of Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton up to this point, Luke? In retrospect, would you have still moved the assets that we did to acquire them? —@dawsonsimon13

Carlo, yes.

Morgan Rielly has strung together some of his best performances in an iffy season now that he has a steady, stay-at-home, right-shot D partner. He’s big, kills penalties, blocks shots, and is smart with his stick. Berube calls Carlo “a vacuum” for his ability to suck up the opposition’s scoring chances.

The Leafs are outscoring opponents 12-8 with the Rielly–Carlo duo on the ice. When Rielly has played without Carlo, the Leafs have been outscored 50-47.

Laughton, no. Or, rather, not yet.

It helps that the versatile forward has a clean start when the playoffs start, plus all of 2025-26 to increase his impact.

How have you rated the signings of the former Panthers? —@HoodieVladdy

Three for three.

Take a bow, Mr. Treliving.

Maybe Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s four-year contract hurts down the road, but so far, the edgy defenceman’s value has exceeded his paystubs.

Ditto for Anthony Stolarz (20 wins, three shutouts, .923 save percentage) and fourth-line fixture Steven Lorentz (four game-winning goals).

Incredible recruits, every one of them.

Now, we get to see if their championship experience has the intangible effect hoped for.

If Stolarz is the guy in the playoffs (and succeeds), do you think Joseph Woll asks for a trade? Or do the Leafs try to trade him? His value has to be pretty good. Lots of teams need goaltending. —@mrevenden

No.

You’re correct that Woll’s trade value would be high. His new salary ($3.67 million through 2027-28) is kind to the cap. He’s a 26-year-old, 26-game winner enjoying his healthiest and most effective pro season. And he’s a beloved teammate and ideal partner for Stolarz, who will be entering a contract year next season.

Toronto should hold onto Woll for all the reasons that would interest opposing teams.

Sure, the Leafs have some intriguing goalie prospects on the Marlies, but I’d rather deal one of those than a guy who has been groomed for nine years now and should still have his best hockey ahead.

How long (in days) does Brendan Shanahan have his job when Toronto wins the division and then gets swept by the Sens in Round 1? —@LeafyDoorstop

The very nature of this question is indicative of the widespread PTSD infecting Leafs Nation.

Nevertheless, we’ll allow it.

Hypothetically, if the Senators do upset their provincial rivals in the first round, it could well be the end of the line for the president and his "Shanaplan."

One playoff series victory over an 11-season tenure as the top executive?

Even a Hall of Fame player like Shanahan would have a hard time surviving that one, particularly now that he has a boss with a face and a name: CEO Keith Pelley, who rolled back into town talking about winning.

If — big if — the Leafs do bow out early again, we’ll give it six or seven days.

And we’ll wonder (a) if Pelley eliminates the middle-man position between himself and Treliving altogether, and (b) if Shanahan makes his way back to the New York area for his next job in hockey.

All of this silly conjecture will be rendered moot, however, when the Toronto Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup.