OK, so if...: Exploring some Leafs observations and potential outcomes

Introducing a new feature I’m calling “OK, so if…”, which jumps off recent NHL revelations, and connects them to what it could mean if those clues turn out to be lasting trends.

We’ll start with a Leafs edition to kick things off.

OK, so if Morgan Rielly is not just back, but he’s like back-back...

That would mean the Leafs are going to generate more offence from their back-end this season. I know it would be just one player’s personal improvement, but considering that one player put up about 30 fewer points than their career best last season, it could be a pretty big swing. And for a team that was near the league’s bottom in terms of getting offence from their defence, that would start to make up some ground on the whole “where is the offence going to come from post-Marner” question.

It would be very welcome news too, considering the direction Rielly’s play had been trending, to get a season of proper top-pair performance from him.

OK, so if Anthony Stolarz has another great season...

The Leafs really won’t have a goalie crisis even if Joseph Woll is out for a long time. Yes, there is real concern about when (I dare not say “if”) Woll will return, but if Stolarz can stay healthy enough to give them 41 games of how he looked in the opener (and the exhibition), then the other half is solvable. 

Cayden Primeau was a highly touted goalie prospect who – according to Steve Valliquette – has been put in a brutal environment to have success in his NHL starts, and could give the Leafs a .900 save percentage this year. Dennis Hildeby is a year better, and there’s reason to believe that in select, softer starts, he could get to that number too. The point is, even league average goaltending in Toronto this year over 82 games will be good enough to get them into the playoffs, which means the Other Goalies just have to not be terrible.

But it starts with Stolarz being good, yet again.

OK, so if none of Matias Maccelli, Max Domi, or anybody else on the roster can play with Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies...

How long will they wait to pull the trigger to add a legit top-six guy? On Real Kyper and Bourne on Thursday, Kyper was saying you can go get Bryan Rust (and his 31 goals last year) right now…if you want to give up Easton Cowan for him. You’d be better right away, but of course they don’t want to do that. Who would? Early in the year there’s going to be a big price for the type of player who can excel in that spot.

So what will the Leafs do? They could load William Nylander up there, and try to cobble together a bottom nine headlined by John Tavares and Bobby McMann. They could try McMann-Matthews-Nylander, and Knies-Tavares-Domi/Maccelli, but would that work better?

It has to make Nick Robertson crazy his name isn’t mentioned in these spots, but could he take advantage on a Knies-Tavares-Robertson line? What about Robertson-Tavares-Nylander?

My overall point here is that it would be really nice for Toronto if Maccelli just found a gear Brad Treliving surely hoped he’d be able to find. They’re looking for a Michael Bunting type -- “not a star but someone who can make this work” -- level of ability out of Maccelli. If not, again – the price to plug the hole will be substantial.

OK, so if Morgan Rielly still isn’t effective on the power play...

Then what? Game one of the season was as good as I’ve seen the guy play, he was flying up the rink, had nine shot attempts, five of them on goal, he scored a goal, had an assist, was plus-2, you name it. He was awesome. And yet, I still thought he was painfully slow making decisions with the puck at the top on the power play.

So if he ain’t it, could they try a five-forward power play with Nylander at the top? He has the ability, but probably not the defensive conscience. Matthews can light it up from the flanks, and is probably wasted playing point guard. So, are the other options just Oliver Ekman-Larsson or bust?

I think Rielly can still do it reasonably well. He ran it the year Toronto had the best power play in the league under Spencer Carbery, and could operate more like a system quarterback who just executes a game plan, rather than makes plays. But he needs to do everything a half-second sooner, move the puck before it needs to be moved, and sift shots through the second there’s a lane. The next options aren’t great.

And finally…

OK, so if Easton Cowan made the team...

Is the plan for him to just get an early season taste then go down, or be an everyday player? Because I don’t love the third option, which is him being around but in and out of the lineup and in the bottom-six. It feels like they’re playing this one by ear.

The Leafs wanted to put their best foot forward in Game 1, and dressed the group that would give them the best chance to win, which had Cowan as the 13^th guy. They’ve said several times they don’t want him watching games, they want him playing, and so he’s almost certainly going to get in this weekend.

But I don’t think it’s great if he’s a kid who’s in and out all year, or if he gets yo-yo’d up-and-down between leagues, as you’d like him to settle in somewhere and get comfortable. As much as they like about what he is -- and I see it all too, he’s got great potential -- Cowan may not yet be strong or fast enough to be effective at the NHL level.

I see him as like Yanni Gourde in his prime, with higher offensive upside (Gourde had 25 goals and 65 points in what was still technically his rookie season, which happened to be at age 26). But to play like Gourde, you have to be able to be forceful when up against strong men. Maybe Cowan has more pure skill than Gourde, so the strength part isn’t as important and he’ll be fine. Maybe Cowan could be a top-six guy for the Toronto Maple Leafs this year...maybe, maybe, maybe.

But for now he’s made the team, and it’ll be worth watching how they use him from here on.