Senators fall short in home opener as Brady Tkachuk's injury looms

OTTAWA — The Ottawa Senators' home opener promised to be a launching pad in a season for joy, optimism and reasons to believe. Instead, it finished with more questions than answers. 

If a 4-1 loss to the lowly Nashville Predators in front of a sellout crowd of Senators fans ready to lift off wasn't bad enough, Brady Tkachuk’s injury and current status now loom large. 

Tkachuk got cross-checked from behind by Roman Josi in the first period. Tkachuk was furious in the moment at the reckless Josi play that appeared to injure his wrist. He continued playing, but left in the middle of the third period. 

Travis Green provided no update on Tkachuk’s status after the game. He said the captain did not leave for precautionary reasons. 

“Next man up (mentality),” said Green. 

We might remember that this Senators squad lost their captain down the stretch last season and not only survived but thrived, making the playoffs largely without him. 

A 1-2-0 start isn't great, but there is plenty of runway. As Thomas Chabot pointed out after the game, there are 79 left.

The problem is that if you don't get off to a good start, it doesn't provide the cushion to weather injuries. If Tkachuk is out long-term, the Senators are deep enough to mitigate the loss of their most important player. But there is little appetite for another October or November slumber like years prior. 

The biggest concern with or without Tkachuk is the lack of offensive production from Ottawa’s top six, which was evident against Nashville.

It starts with Tim Stutzle, especially if Tkachuk is banged up. Stutzle has been unable to convert on chances and possession, which was an issue last season when he only scored 24 goals despite great analytics. Against Nashville, Stutzle had three shots while turning the puck over with some frantic play, which has been the case so far this season for the German. 

Ottawa had only one high-danger chance at five-on-five with Stutzle on the ice on Monday, and he has just one assist in the first three games. That won’t do.

Stutzle is emblematic of Ottawa’s inability to score. The team has five even-strength goals in its first three games despite having a 53 per cent expected goals share. It's a concern, especially for a team that finished second-last in that category last season. Through the first three games, the Senators are 22^nd in high-danger chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five. 

The Senators lost against Nashville because they couldn’t score. 

For all of Ottawa’s lack of scoring, Jake Sanderson thought he had given Ottawa a lead in the second period, but the goal was disallowed because it was deemed that Stutzle had interfered with Juuse Saros. 

“I was really shocked that the goal didn't count,” said Green. 

His goaltender, Linus Ullmark, a card-carrying member of the goalie union, stood up for his counterpart.

“When you have a guy as talented as Saros on his legs and you see him being out of position on a simple play,” said Ullmark, “(then) something must have happened.”

(For the purposes of dissecting what goaltender interference is, Sportsnet has a great ongoing article.)

"In my book, it wasn't (a goal)," said Chabot.

“It took close to 10 minutes to figure that out."

This writer’s two cents are that if it takes over five minutes to overturn a call, then it isn’t conclusive. For it to be conclusive, it should be quick.

Regardless, Nashville opened the scoring minutes later. It’s part of an early trend: The Senators have given up the first goal in each of their first three games.

“Obviously it was a big factor in the game,” said Green about the overturned goal.

The Senators need to score more — and first. 

Adams’ Apples

Kleven-Spence new-look third pairing

Both Tyler Kleven and Jordan Spence drew into the lineup for different reasons. One had been injured; the other a healthy scratch. 

Kleven was rusty but grew into the game, laying a massive hit on Predator Tyson Jost in the first. Meanwhile, Spence showed flashes, including a shot off the post in the second period. 

“Pretty good, made some nice plays with the puck,” Green said about Spence’s debut as a Senator.

The pair played the most at five-on-five and held a 61 per cent expected goals share. It was a curious decision from Green not to start Spence to begin the season, but it may be chalked up to him preferring to match Spence’s speed and skill with the brutish play of Kleven. Regardless, on paper, Kleven and Spence should fare much better than the relatively inexperienced pairing of Nikolas Matinpalo and Donovan Sebrango they replaced.

PK resurgence

Senators managed to kill all six penalties with a welcome new aggression. Nashville managed only two high-danger chances on their six attempts, according to Natural Stat Trick. Ottawa had given up eight high-danger chances in their previous two games.

“Everybody went when we were supposed to go,” said Ullmark. “Putting pressure, having a little bit more swagger to it, not enabling them or allowing them to make criss-cross passes or set up plays.”

Ottawa’s much-maligned diamond formation has looked better when it’s aggressive. Monday's performance should be the template moving forward.

Affordable Sens tickets

Sportsnet reached out to the Action Network to run an analysis on how affordable Sens tickets were for the home opener. They reported that the Canadian Tire Centre is the second-most affordable ticket in the NHL. On average, according to the study, a family of four would expect to spend around $487.29 to see the Senators with snacks and other costs. Contrast that with a New York Rangers game: the estimated cost is $1,296.88. Not sure if that feels affordable to Sens fans, but it’s good to see the comparison.