OTTAWA — In a series with two evenly matched teams, one player can make the difference.
Tyler Kleven’s availability could be that difference in a Round 1 matchup between the Ottawa Senators and Carolina Hurricanes.
Kleven’s been out for two weeks after taking a puck to the face (it’s suspected he broke his jaw). The rugged defenceman hadn’t skated with Ottawa since then, but did on Friday.
He’d become a pivotal part of why the Senators surged into a playoff spot, especially when Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot went down.
The longer Kleven is out, the larger the challenge the Senators will face.
Head coach Travis Green didn't rule him out for Game 1, but it seems unlikely he plays Saturday in Carolina.
"He's closer to playing, obviously, he's out with the group," Green said.
Kleven was in a non-contact jersey in Friday’s practice while taking line rushes with Lassi Thomson.
On Friday in practice, Kleven was hit in the jaw in a little collision and looked to be in serious pain, but continued practising. If the jaw is sore after an innocuous play in practice, it seems like a question mark how soon he’ll be ready to return.
The area where the Senators could get exposed — particularly early in the series if Kleven is out — is their bottom defensive pair. In practice on Friday, the duo of Dennis Gilbert and Nikolas Matinpalo looked set to be that pair. Both had been healthy scratched more than etched into the Senators' lineup card this season. The two have combined for six playoff games of experience. Neither is a good puck mover, and they face a super-speedy and possession-based Carolina team. You make a bad breakout, and you might be spending loads of time defending.
Kleven’s eventual return would create a (good) conundrum, as Kleven and Jordan Spence have been excellent, with the second-highest expected goals share of any pair in the league this season. But that would leave Chabot without an obvious partner. Maybe he’d play with Matinpalo, though the two of them have shared just 67 minutes together in their careers.
With how deep Carolina is, the Senators cannot afford to have an obvious weak link. Watch for Carolina to pounce on Gilbert and Matinpalo.
Two teams emulating each other
Sanderson said this version of the Senators is a better team than last year’s. Analytically, they are, as are they points-wise. Yet the Hurricanes pose a difficult challenge as the best team in the East.
Both the Senators and Hurricanes love to suppress their opponent’s shots and are stifling defensively.
“It's going to be not many chances on both sides. It’s going to be a chess match,” said Senators captain Brady Tkachuk.
Carolina has the edge in every statistical category, but only marginally. Canes are first in shots against, Sens are third. Canes are first in shots per game, Sens are eighth. Carolina and Ottawa are ranked two and three, respectively, in five-on-five expected goals share.
But Carolina hasn’t faced the same type of adversity the Senators have, like injuries or the mental and physical challenges of playing playoff hockey for the last two months to get in.
The Senators have done a good impersonation of the Hurricanes, but will their impersonation overtake the original?
Chabot called the Hurricanes the best team in the Eastern Conference on Friday and said the pressure was on them.
The gamesmanship has already begun.
Carolina also has the edge over the Senators in playoff experience after making the Conference Final in two of the last three seasons. To a man, the Senators admitted they were a fish out of ice water against Toronto in Game 1 last post-season.
“Think first game last year, we're a bit overwhelmed, in a sense, and it kind of showed. But I think this year we'll have a good mindset going into that first game,” said Shane Pinto.
That first game was the difference last year; we will see if the Sens have learned from their mistakes.
Importance of Sanderson and Zub
What the Senators do have is the pairing of Sanderson and Artem Zub that will munch minutes, especially up against Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis’s line. The Ottawa duo has become one of the best defensive pairs in the league, with the third-highest expected share at five-on-five.
Both Sanderson and Zub create a ton of offence and neutralize opponents, which is important against a Carolina team that led the league in shots this season.
Pinto up against Aho’s line
Expect Pinto to take big minutes against Carolina’s top line of Aho, Jarvis and Andrei Svechnikov. His line with Michael Amadio and Nick Cousins has become an elite defensive trio. Pinto wouldn’t say how much he’d play against Aho on Friday — no reason to reveal state secrets.
If Pinto’s line wins their matchups against Aho, the Senators could be in a great position. Look for Carolina head coach Rod Brind’Amour to use his last change at home in Games 1 and 2 to isolate Aho’s line away from Pinto’s.
Goaltending X-factor
The most interesting subplot in the series may be goaltending. Linus Ullmark will start game 1 for the Senators, and he’s been excellent in April with a .926 save percentage. However, he has never won a playoff series and has a career save percentage of .885 in the post-season. He declined to talk to the media on Friday.
At the other end of the ice, Brind’Amour hasn’t yet named his starter for Game 1. It’s unclear whether it’ll be Brandon Bussi or Frederik Andersen. Neither has played well in the past two months as both have a sub-.873 save percentage since the start of March. We may see Ullmark versus a rotating cast of who’s the hottest Cane.
Adams’ Apples
Tim Stutzle said he and Drake Batherson were watching all the best goals from 2024-25, and then from 2000 to 2025 to hype themselves up for the playoffs. Sometimes, young superstars do the same thing as their fans to get ready for the playoffs.
Batherson says Amadio will have the best playoff beard of any Senator. Both Stutzle and Batherson shaved off their beards just before the playoffs.
“Ready to go,” said Stutzle of his beard.
Lines from practice
Batherson-Stutzle-Giroux
Tkachuk-Cozens-Greig
Cousins-Pinto-Amadio
Foegele-Eller-Zetterlund
Sanderson-Zub
Chabot-Spence
Gilbert-Matinpalo
Kleven*-Thomson
*Kleven in a non-contact jersey
