Why Canadiens should be encouraged by early-season process despite record

MONTREAL — Obviously, the Montreal Canadiens weren’t aiming for 3-3-1 out of the gate. Not after that run to the Eastern Conference Final last spring, and especially not after telling anyone who asked that they were prepared to meet lofty expectations they had for themselves.

We’re not sure how they’re processing these early results, but it would behoove them to view it all as soberly as head coach Martin St. Louis, because he was absolutely right after Wednesday’s 5-4 loss to the Washington Capitals.

"I feel like, overall, we’re playing some pretty good hockey," St. Louis said. "I think we’re struggling to get rewarded for the work we’re putting in, but it’s OK. We are where we are, we’re going to keep pushing."

Where the Canadiens are is in a worse place than they should be.

If they were getting rewarded for their strong five-on-five play, they’d be 4-2-1, or perhaps even 5-1-1.

Opening night in Toronto was a toss-up that went the Canadiens’ way. Game 2 in Pittsburgh was a mess, but you can’t say the Canadiens didn’t earn the point they salvaged in erasing a four-goal deficit to force overtime.

They certainly deserved to lose as badly as they did to the Carolina Hurricanes in the home opener. But to be 2-2-0 in the four games since is borderline ridiculous given how thoroughly they dominated their opponents at five-on-five.

The Canadiens controlled 66 per cent of the shot attempts, notched 15 high-danger scoring chances while allowing only four, and earned a 74 per cent share of expected goals in a bewildering 5-2 loss to the Nashville Predators. That was before they squeaked out a 1-0 shootout win in a game that saw them earn 65 per cent of the shot attempts and 55 per cent of the expected goals against the Detroit Red Wings.

They outplayed the Buffalo Sabres in similar fashion and again escaped with a shootout win.

And then there was what happened Wednesday.

Before the game, Capitals coach Spencer Carbery told Canadiens reporters in Washington he had observed a shift in St. Louis’ team. He referenced a much more aggressive defensive style aimed to get the Canadiens “over the hump to beat the Carolinas and Floridas of the world,” and he finished by saying, “we’ll get a better feel for it tonight.”

There’s no way Carbery liked what he felt as those first two periods went by.

But the Canadiens had to be flummoxed by the result of those opening 40 minutes. When you out-chance your opponent 24-5 — and 9-0 from the high-danger zone — at five-on-five, you probably deserve to be in a better position than tied 3-3 going to the third period.

And it’s not as if the Canadiens deserved to lose those final 20 minutes 2-1.

But games aren’t decided by shot attempts and expected goals, so the Canadiens are where they are.

Where they are is stuck on .500, but with two-thirds of their second line missing. Ivan Demidov played the first two games injured and spent the last five in a walking boot. Oliver Kapanen has watched all seven games from the press box, nursing a day-to-day injury that’s kept him out three weeks.

Mike Matheson, who averages more time on ice than any other player on the Canadiens, got hurt against the Red Wings and missed the last two games, while Kaiden Guhle just played his first three of the season.

Considering all that, 3-3-1 isn’t bad.

And it should be better, because despite all the injuries to key players, the Canadiens have played much better at five-on-five than they did to unexpectedly make the playoffs in 2024-25 — and even better than they did to earn 106 points last season.

They ranked 24th in the league in Corsi For percentage and 23rd in expected goals last season, and that was after finishing 27th in the first category and 28th in the second two seasons ago.

But the Canadiens currently rank fifth in the league in shot-attempt differential and ninth in expected goals.

Jacob Fowler has been excellent in his three starts, but Jakub Dobes hasn’t been good enough in three of his four.

The power play blanked on its first four attempts with Demidov, and it struggled mightily in the first couple games without him.

But it has looked much better than results would have you believe. That was typified in the game against Washington, when Alex Tuch scored short-handed on a shot Dobes should’ve stopped seconds after Charlie Lindgren made a miraculous save on Juraj Slafkovsky.

The new-look penalty kill was slightly unlucky against the Capitals after a breakthrough night against Buffalo Tuesday.

Still, you want your special teams to add up to 100 per cent and the Canadiens are 6.4 per cent shy of that mark, so there’s work to do.

The Canadiens can also help themselves by taking fewer penalties (4.3 per game is more than any other team in the league) and drawing more power plays (3.1 per game is middle of the pack).

But outside of that, and a few saves Dobes couldn’t make, things aren’t nearly as underwhelming as their 3-3-1 record would indicate.

Time to give David Reinbacher a try

Like the Canadiens did with Fowler, getting Reinbacher into the lineup quickly is a good way to not only reward his strong play through training camp and the start of the American Hockey League season, but also to reinforce the confidence he’s been exhibiting since arriving back in Montreal this summer.

The Canadiens may not want to do that at Adam Engstrom’s expense — after the rookie had a couple of tough breaks against Buffalo but rebounded well in that game and followed it up with a good performance in Washington — but they wouldn’t necessarily be hurting the 22-year-old Swede by swapping him out for the 21-year-old Austrian for a game.

If Matheson remains out for Saturday’s rematch against the Sabres (Sportsnet, Sportsnet+, 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT), this is a good opportunity to see where Reinbacher’s at.

The fifth overall pick in 2023, who’s been oft injured over the past three seasons, was in a good place last spring when he made his NHL debut, and now the door is slightly ajar for him to follow it up.

The Canadiens won’t know if Reinbacher can kick it open if they don’t at least give him the opportunity.