Maple Leafs' Nylander piling up points but says he needs to do more

TORONTO — William Nylander is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma smothered in paradoxical stats.

The Toronto Maple Leafs superstar is producing at a rate that puts him well within striking distance of his first 50-goal, 100-point campaign.

And yet, the winger’s under-the-hood metrics are troubling at even-strength. The check engine light is blaring orange.

Despite starting 62.7 per cent of his shifts in the offensive zone, the second highest of his career, the Leafs are generating just 46.2 per cent of shot attempts when he’s on the ice. His faceoff wins have sunk to a career-low 29.4 per cent. 

He’s a minus-1 on a team with a plus-6 goal differential, and he’s largely avoided the toughest defensive matchups, which get assigned to Auston Matthews.

Among all Leafs skaters this season, Nylander rates 20th in expected goals percentage (40.3) 5-on-5.

Simultaneously, he’s regularly piling points and failing to drive or sustain offence.

“I feel like it’s been a weird season in that way. I feel like I haven’t had the puck nearly as much as I usually have in neutral zone, O-zone,” Nylander said Wednesday after practice.

“So, I don’t know exactly what that is coming down to. But, I mean, that's something I’m trying to get sorted.”

Something the Maple Leafs — losing ground in a divisional dogfight — must get sorted.

Head coach Jim Hiller has occasionally promoted Nylander to Matthews’ top line. He has cycled several other forwards on Line 2 in search of a spark. But through 17 now, the Leafs have one offensively dangerous top line, a fourth line that can cause havoc and finish shifts in the O-zone, and a concerning hole in the middle.

The lack of attack from Nylander’s line has increased the strain on the blueline.

“Our best defence is to play in the offensive zone more. Forecheck better. Stay on pucks. Hang onto pucks. That’ll be our focus,” Hiller said.

The defensively inclined Nick Paul has filled in admirably for the injured John Tavares as Nylander’s substitute centreman. But for all his attributes, Paul has produced just one assist and one goal in the nine games since Tavares got injured.

Ahead of Saturday’s showdown versus Montreal, Hiller is trying Tavares on Paul’s left wing alongside Nylander.

“We think it might be easier for him to keep generating more offence from the wing and have Pauly do more of the work down low,” Hiller reasoned.

“That might be the first time I'll play with him on the wing,” Nylander said. “So probably be a little bit different.”

Well, the status quo isn’t working. It’s worth a shot.

But the bottom line is this: Whoever centres Nylander’s line, the elite forward needs to start driving more play and limiting more chances the other way. Power-play points and saw-off shifts alone won’t cut it.

This is a team designed for two lines to dominate.

“Certainly, the point production is there. But I’m used to seeing him back in the day where he would carry the puck through the neutral zone, then he would take people wide, then turn up and find a secondary option,” said Hiller, who has had multiple conversations with Nylander lately. 

“He just hasn’t had those looks. We’ve talked a lot about him coming back for the puck a little bit more, maybe spending less time in the neutral zone waiting for the puck and more time in our own zone as the breakout outlet and carrying it.”

One-Timers: Jack Roslovic got banged up in Tuesday’s loss to Utah and did not participate in practice due to maintenance. With a pair of goals against the Mammoth…. Tavares participated in his first full team practice since suffering a lower-body injury three weeks ago but is still wearing a red, non-contact sweater. With the Leafs taking Thursday off, he’ll need to practice with contact Friday to return to action this weekend versus Montreal and New Jersey. I say he does it. Hiller raved about Tavares’s practice…. Sergei Bobrovsky stayed off the ice, which is not uncommon after starts…. The Maple Leafs are minus-10 in penalties drawn versus taken. It’s an issue.

Maple Leafs projected lineup Saturday vs. Montreal:

Cowan – Matthews – Lettieri
Tavares – Paul – Nylander
Joshua – Sissons – McKenna
Duhaime – Blueger – MacEwen

McCabe – Raddysh
Rielly – Tanev
Ekman-Larsson – Stecher

Bobrovsky
Stolarz