UFC 260 preview: Can Miocic humble Ngannou again in rematch?

UFC insider Jordan Sherwood joins Follow The Money to discuss his picks for UFC 260, Miocic vs. Ngannou 2, and also gives his one dog to play on the main card.

It has been more than three years since Stipe Miocic humbled Francis Ngannou at UFC 220 to hand him the first loss of his mixed martial arts career.

The two heavyweight stars are ready to run it back in Saturday’s main event at UFC 260 with Ngannou aiming to get revenge and begin a new era as champion, while Miocic could cement his status as the most accomplished heavyweight in UFC history with a second win over Ngannou.

The winner of this fight is expected to take on Jon Jones later this year in what should be the most anticipated heavyweight title matchup in UFC history.

Before we cross that bridge, let’s take a closer look at Miocic vs. Ngannou II…

TALE OF THE TAPE

Stipe Miocic
Fighting out of: Cleveland, Ohio
Age: 38 | Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 234 pounds
Arm reach: 80 inches | Leg reach: 39 inches
Stance: Orthodox
Average fight time: 11:29
Background: Boxing, Wrestling
MMA record: 20-3 | UFC record: 14-3
Notable wins: Daniel Cormier (x2), Francis Ngannou, Fabricio Werdum, Alistair Overeem, Junior Dos Santos, Mark Hunt, Andrei Arlovski, Roy Nelson
Notable accomplishments: Two-time UFC heavyweight champion; No. 2-ranked pound-for-pound fighter on UFC roster; most successful title defences in UFC heavyweight history; most total strikes landed in UFC heavyweight history; nine post-fight bonuses (three Fight of the Night, six Performance of the Night)

Francis Ngannou
Fighting out of: Las Vegas via Batie, Cameroon
Age: 34 | Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 263 pounds
Arm reach: 83 inches | Leg reach: 44.5 inches
Stance: Orthodox
Average fight time: 5:37
Background: MMA
MMA record: 15-3 | UFC record: 10-2
Notable wins: Alistair Overeem, Cain Velasquez, Junior Dos Santos, Curtis Blaydes (x2), Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Andrei Arlovski
Notable accomplishments: No. 1-ranked UFC heavyweight contender; No. 13-ranked pound-for-pound fighter on UFC roster; five Performance of the Night bonuses; averages 1.34 knockdowns per 15 minutes; sixth-most finishes in UFC heavyweight history

Ngannou loaded up on his punches and swung widely looking for the knockout in their first bout, but it didn’t work like it had in so many of his previous wins.

Miocic’s superior boxing skills and his vastly superior grappling resulted in a clean sweep of the scorecards.

Even though it lasted all 25 minutes, the fight was essentially over after the first round. Ngannou landed 14 significant head strikes on Miocic in the thrilling opening stanza at UFC 220 – several of those punches would’ve ended the night against most other heavyweights – but Ngannou only managed to land three combined significant head strikes over the final four rounds of the fight.

Ngannou needs to have a more refined game plan and maintain as much space as possible in the rematch, otherwise he could face a repeat on what went down three years ago in Boston.

What has each fighter done since UFC 220?

After beating Ngannou in 2018, Miocic has only had to prepare for one fighter: former champion Daniel Cormier. Miocic was knocked out by Cormier at UFC 226 but managed to rebound with a KO win of his own in their UFC 241 rematch. Miocic then took the trilogy bout last August at UFC 252 with a unanimous decision.

Meanwhile, Ngannou followed-up his loss to Miocic with a tentative, lacklustre outing against Derrick Lewis. Ngannou lost a decision to Lewis but ever since that fight, he has morphed into an even more dangerous version of the fighter that began his UFC tenure with six straight stoppage wins. Not bad considering he didn’t begin training in MMA until 2013 – Miocic already had five UFC bouts to his name at that point.

Betting odds

At UFC 220, Miocic opened and closed as a roughly +130 underdog and returned great value for his backers. This time around Miocic opened as an even bigger dog at +190. The line has since shifted slightly towards Miocic who was roughly a +110 underdog after Friday’s weigh-ins.

A couple things to consider: Ngannou has accumulated less than four total minutes of Octagon time during his current four-fight winning streak. Sure, he can end a fight in the blink of an eye but the lack of recent in-cage experience means the public really doesn’t know how much he has improved since his first scrap with the champ. Ngannou will have welterweight champion Kamaru Usman in his corner for this fight.

On the other hand, Miocic absorbed 232 total significant head strikes in his two wins over Cormier. So, a knockout loss plus all that additional head damage leaves us wondering if Miocic’s notorious chin and durability will be as reliable as it was the first time he fought Ngannou.

Prop bet to consider: Ngannou inside the distance at +100
The odds Ngannou wins by any method besides a knockout or TKO (and a relatively early one at that) are quite slim, so if you’re leaning with the challenger you may as well go with his most probable method of victory. More specifically, a +240 first-round KO or +550 second-round KO prop could be worth your time and that’s where you can get real value with an Ngannou bet.

If Ngannou can’t find the mark and land his shot in the opening 10 minutes, there’s not much evidence to suggest the title will be changing hands on Saturday night.

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