UFC 329 Cage Locks: Will layoff impact McGregor's ability to go the distance?

"The Notorious" Conor McGregor is finally stepping back into the Octagon.

Nearly five years to the day since he last fought in the UFC, the Irishman and former double-champ is back in action — headlining UFC 329 in a main event welterweight bout against Max Holloway.

And getting to this point has looked quite different for the two stars. McGregor hasn't been in a cage since back-to-back losses to Dustin Poirier in 2021, and the closest he got to a return before Saturday was a failed comeback versus Michael Chandler in 2024. There's no telling how that kind of layoff impacts one of the sport's most unpredictable fighters.

Holloway, meanwhile, has been nothing but a model of consistency (and activity) in the UFC. The American has fought eight times in just the five years that McGregor has been away. The question for him is if moving up yet another weight class in the span of two years — making a 25-pound jump from featherweight to welterweight — takes anything away from his always entertaining fight game.

Also on the card: four ranked-contender matchups, including a co-main tilt between fifth-ranked lightweight Benoit Saint-Denis and sixth-ranked Paddy Pimblett. Saint-Denis enters the bout riding a four-fight win streak, while Pimblett looks to bounce back from his first loss, a unanimous decision to Justin Gaethje for the interim title.

All 28 fighters scheduled to compete on Saturday's card from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas successfully made weight early Friday.

Here is the event card for UFC 329 (subject to change) plus predictions from our panel.

MAIN CARD
— Conor McGregor vs. Max Hollowy
— Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett
— Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista
— Brandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh
— King Green vs. Terrance McKinney

PRELIMINARY CARD
— Nikita Krylov vs. Robert Whittaker
— Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison
— Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez
— Luke Riley vs. Kai Kamaka III
— Tracy Cortez vs. Wang Cong
— Damian Pinas vs. Cesar Almeida
— Farid Basharat vs. John Garza
— Ryan Gandra vs. Zachary Reese
— Alessandro Costa vs. Cody Durden

Ahead of the big UFC events, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter) and producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON’S PICKS

Cage Lock: Holloway vs. McGregor ends inside the distance -500
Favourite: Max Holloway -215
Underdog: Nikita Krylov +110
Dart Throw: Max Holloway wins in Round 2 +500

Coming off of a five-year layoff, I would be surprised to see McGregor having the durability to go the full five rounds against a high-octane Holloway.

I believe that Holloway’s recent outings against elite opponents will be the difference maker in this fight and that he will be able to overwhelm McGregor early on, finding a finish in the first three rounds with the second round being the most likely.

While Robert Whittaker has also faced high-level opposition, I am concerned that his lack of stature at light heavyweight will put him at a major disadvantage against Krylov. While Whittaker is almost certainly more skilled, I do not understand this move to light heavyweight. Krylov will be a difficult entry level test for him at his new weight class.

DAN’S PICKS

Cage Lock: Gable Steveson -1150
Favourite: Wang Cong -110
Underdog: Paddy Pimblett +122
Dart Throw: Garbrandt KO +850

Renowned wrestler Gable Steveson's first foray into UFC appears to be the equivalent of a WWF Superstars squash match. If you don't get the reference, you will on Saturday. Don't ya dare miss it!

If Wang Cong focuses less on dressing up like the Joker and more on refining her all-around game, she will be a star. Since losing to Gabriella Fernandes, she has racked up three decision victories instead of hunting the finish. Why so serious? It appears she's gotten a little serious and rightfully so considering a scrap with Tracey Cortez is no laughing matter.

Paddy Pimblett was seemingly humbled by Justin Gaethje's striking and underrated grappling last time out. He will be more prepared against a less experienced opponent this time around. Saint-Denis is on a heater since switching training staff but hasn't faced anyone on Paddy's level during this stretch.

It seems the oddsmakers forgot that Cody Garbrandt hits like a truck. His opponent Adrian Yanez usually ends up on either side of a TKO/KO. So because it's MMA, that usually means it goes the distance if you bet on it! I just have a feeling Cody will turn back the hands of time by reminding us of his hands of stone.

2026 STANDINGS AFTER 21 EVENTS

AARON'S RECORD (42-42)
Cage Lock: 15-6
Favourite: 13-8
Underdog: 10-11
Dart throw: 4-17

DAN'S RECORD (45-38-1)

Cage Lock: 20-1
Favourite: 15-6
Underdog: 6-14-1
Dart throw: 4-17

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s and Dan’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)