UFC 331 takes place this Saturday in Los Angeles with a much-anticipated flyweight championship rematch between Joshua Van and challenger Alexandre Pantoja, who he defeated last year due to an injury stoppage to become the champion.
Since then, Van has defended the title against a worthy challenger in Tatsuro Taira, which he can take lessons from for his rematch with Pantoja.
Main Event: Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja (flyweight championship)
Van’s path: The importance of Van’s win over Taira cannot be stressed enough when looking at this rematch. It showed that, despite getting taken down eight times, he's still a nightmare for his opponents when the fight takes place on the feet.
While I consider the championship version of Pantoja a superior striker to Taira, I still believe that Van will have an advantage if he can create prolonged exchanges on the feet. If Van can get out of the first round, I think he can start to build momentum and roll downhill on Pantoja in a similar fashion to his performance against Taira.
Pantoja’s path: This matchup for Pantoja will be similar to his against Moreno, Royval and Erceg. He was able to match their volume on the feet and also make them second-guess their offence with his potent takedown attempts, which yielded a combined 23 takedowns in those three matchups.
Van continues to have issues with his takedown defence, and if Pantoja can exploit that and trust his opportunistic instincts on the ground, he can find a submission. If not, he can still mix up his grappling and striking to earn a decision victory.
Prediction: Van by decision
Co-Main Event: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (five-round featured bout)
Tsaruykan’s path: Tsarukyan needs to wrestle — plain and simple. However long this fight transpires on the feet, Ruffy’s long-range weapons will be a legitimate threat to his stocky build, with Ruffy possessing a four-inch height advantage.
If Tsarukyan can take this fight to the ground and neutralize Ruffy, he can either dominate him there or find a submission when Ruffy attempts to get the fight back to the feet.
He cannot afford to be patient in this fight; he needs to prioritize getting Ruffy to the ground and tire him out.
Ruffy’s path: While it can be argued that Tsarukyan is perhaps the best lightweight on the planet, Ruffy is one of the more difficult stylistic matchups for him in the division.
With Ruffy being a master of range and having shown improvements since Benoit Saint-Denis exposed a massive hole in his game, this is a winnable fight for him if he can keep the fight at range.
While Tsarukyan cannot afford to be patient, Ruffy needs to take the opposite approach. Be methodical, do not be predictable and make his opponent pay whenever he tries to close the distance.
Prediction: Ruffy by Round 3 KO/TKO
Patricio Pitbull vs. Dooho Choi
Pitbull’s path: There are two versions of Pitbull — the aggressive version and the conservative one. We have largely seen the conservative one during his UFC tenure, and that is the version that will have the most success against Choi.
Turning this fight into a chess match — utilizing takedowns, timing his counters and frustrating Choi — is his best path.
If this becomes an aggressive firefight, it is still a winnable fight, but it also satisfies his opponent’s best win conditions.
Choi’s path: Be aggressive and back Pitbull into a corner. Choi will have to play with fire in order to get the best of Pitbull, because if he takes his time, that is where Pitbull will find openings.
We have seen Pitbull willingly engage in action fights when challenged to in the past and that would be the best path for Choi. Make it dirty and try to come out on the other side of the chaos.
Prediction: Pitbull by decision
Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski
Menifield’s path: Menifield is 3-1 in his last four fights and has found success in being conservative when necessary and aggressive as needed. The aggression paid off in his last fight against Zhang Mingyang, whom many felt he would be outgunned by.
The expectation is the same this time around, as Baraniewski is a potent early finisher.
The best bet for Menifield is to extend Baraniewski, hope that he burns out or slows down and use his veteran savvy to take advantage by finding a stoppage in the later rounds.
It is no secret that getting out of the first round against Baraniewski is any fighter’s best bet and we have seen Menifield do this in the past.
Baraniewski’s path: Try to bait the aggression out of Menifield early. Don’t allow him to circle, stay in his face and attempt to do what he does best, which is catch his opponent early.
Baraniewski has been hoping to show that he has a good gas tank and can use his judo background when possible, but fighters don’t get paid by the minute and he has made stopping his opponents a habit. The longer the fight goes, the more questions that he can answer, but there is also the probability of him drowning in deep waters.
Prediction: Baraniewski wins by Round 1 KO/TKO
Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf
Steveson’s path: Steveson approached his UFC debut like a bull in a china shop and was able to score a win against an outmatched Elisha Ellison without having to use his Olympic gold medalist wrestling pedigree.
In this matchup, he needs to do what got him to the dance: wrestle and impose his will on Sharaf.
While the win in his debut was encouraging, his game plan was not. He charged forward with his head straight up in the air and got tagged by Ellison, who few expected to have any success in the matchup. There was no reason to take such a high-risk approach other than to find an early finish at all costs.
Sharaf’s path: Sharaf is yet to win a UFC bout and they are putting him against the division’s top prospect with championship potential. His best bet is to bait Steveson into a striking battle and catch him coming in. This is heavyweight MMA and it is volatile, so he needs to hope that Steveson is looking to engage in a striking battle and take advantage. The likelihood of that happening is low, but it is his best path.
Prediction: Steveson by Round 1 KO/TKO
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