UFC Cage Locks: Rodrigues hopes to make statement vs. Cannonier

Saturday’s UFC Fight Night card in Las Vegas is the third consecutive event this month headlined by two of the best middleweights in mixed martial arts.

Jared Cannonier will look to snap a two-fight skid and maintain his spot ranked in the top 10 at 185 pounds when he faces streaking Gregory Rodrigues in the main event.

Rodrigues, 32, has won three in a row and five of his past six and can finally get into the official rankings in his weight class by getting past Cannonier, who’s always a knockout threat and a tough out but can’t afford a third consecutive loss at 40 years of age.

The 12-fight card takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas and features a featherweight co-main event between Calvin Kattar and Youssef Zalal.

A scheduled lightweight matchup between Jared Gordon and newcomer Mashrabjon Ruzibaev was cancelled on Friday just moments after Gordon successfully made weight due to issues with Ruzibaev, who was a short-notice replacement opponent.

Below is the projected bout order for UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues, plus full predictions.

MAIN CARD

-- Jared Cannonier vs. Gregory Rodrigues

-- Calvin Kattar vs. Youssef Zalal

-- Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Dylan Budka 

-- Ismael Bonfim vs. Nazim Sadykhov 

-- Rodolfo Vieira vs. Andre Petroski 

-- Connor Matthews vs. Jose Delgado 

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Angela Hill vs. Ketlen Souza

-- Rafael Estevam vs. Jesus Aguilar 

-- Gabriel Bonfim vs. Khaos Williams

-- Vince Morales vs. Elijah Smith

-- Valter Walker vs. Don’Tale Mayes

-- Julia Avila vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

Our trio of prognosticators continue to alternate wins and losses on their Cage Locks parlay. Last week it was Mike’s pick, Kody Steele, who busted the parlay in a Fight of the Night effort vs. Rongzhu, while Aaron continued his hot streak at UFC 312 with a 3-0-1 week including his second consecutive dart throw hit.

AARON'S PICKS
Best bet: Hill vs. Souza goes the distance -455
Favourite: Shahbazyan vs. Budka does not go the distance -188
Underdog: Angela Hill -105
Dart throw: Calvin Kattar wins by decision +700

Hill vs. Souza will go the distance and, more often than not, I believe Hill wins this fight, so getting her at an underdog price is very appealing. I was shocked to see Shahbazyan vs. Budka does not go to a decision at these odds, that feels like a bargain. To get Calvin Kattar by decision against any unranked featherweight at seven-to-one odds is an absolute no-brainer. Kattar has the potential to outclass anyone in a three-round fight.

DAN'S PICKS
Best bet: Jacqueline Cavalcanti -715
Favourite: Elijah Smith -145
Underdog: Angela Hill -105
Dart throw: Don’Tale Mayes by decision +400

I think all four of these picks have a reasonable chance of hitting this week. As long as Cavalcanti is able to maintain the distance against her opponent, she should cruise to a routine win. Elijah Smith looked really impressive on DWCS and his opponent Vince Morales is coming off a loss in his UFC debut. Angela Hill and Ketlen Souza will be such a close fight that it's worth leaning the underdog here. I’m not fully sold on Valter Walker…maybe I will be after Saturday. But Don’Tale Mayes’ last three bouts have all gone to decisions so this pick is not out of the realm of possibility. Enjoy the fights!

MIKE'S PICKS
Best bet: Gregory Rodrigues -238
Favourite: Elijah Smith -145
Underdog: Khaos Williams +185
Dart throw: Rodolfo Vieira by submission in Round 2 +500

Listen, it’s no secret Rodrigues has been a bit chinny in his career. It’s really the only thing holding him back from already being discussed in the oft-evolving middleweight title conversation. Rodrigues is an ascending fighter, and in addition to his knockout power, he can also turn to his wrestling and play it safe down the stretch if Cannonier manages to hurt him, which is entirely possible. Don’t love the line movement slightly in the direction of Smith’s opponent, Vince Morales, this week, but I do love the high-ceiling potential of recent DWCS grad Smith. Also think Khaos Williams has a solid chance at keeping his fight with Gabriel Bonfim standing and if he does there’s a clear path to the upset.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY

Three legs: Hill vs. Souza goes distance + Cavalcanti + Rodrigues
Parlay odds: -103 (to win: $97.46)

2025 STANDINGS AFTER 4 EVENTS

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 
2025 record: 2-2 (L1)
2025 winnings: -$38.70 (on $100 bets)

AARON'S RECORDS/TOTALS (+6.22 units)
Best bet: 4-0 (+$52.50)
Favourite: 0-4 (-$400)
Underdog: 2-1-1 (+$270)
Dart throw: 2-2 (+$700)

DAN'S RECORDS/TOTALS (+4.36 units)
Best bet: 3-1 (-$25.14)
Favourite: 2-2 (-$48.57)
Underdog: 3-1 (+$350)
Dart throw: 1-3 (+$160)

MIKE'S RECORDS/TOTALS (-0.09 units)
Best bet: 3-1 (-$11.43)
Favourite: 3-1 (+$132.30)
Underdog: 2-1-1 (+$270)
Dart throw: 0-4 (-$400)

Best bet: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)