Why the Saint John Sea Dogs may need to shake things up

The story Joseph Veleno of the Saint John Sea Dogs who was given exceptional status.

There’s something funny going on down east. In our pre-season QMJHL coaches poll, the Saint John Sea Dogs were picked to win the league and even got some love from coaches in the other two CHL loops as MasterCard Memorial Cup contenders. But after beginning the season ranked No. 2 in the nation, they have been steadily sliding down the rankings.

Now, it’s not as if Saint John is crapping the bag. They’re sitting third overall in the Q with a 9-4-1 record and ranked in the CHL’s top 10 for a sixth consecutive week. But here’s the thing: The Sea Dogs should be much better. Or, at least, could be.

Team GP Est.FC% GF GA GD GF% SF SA SD SF% Sh% Sv% PDO HD SD HD Sh%
Saint John Sea Dogs 14 58.81 24 25 -1 48.98 422 269 153 61.07 5.24 0.914 96.62 20 18.42
Blainville-Boisbriand Armada 14 59.01 28 16 12 63.64 369 268 101 57.93 7.08 0.94 101.11 13 26.67
Shawinigan Cataractes 12 52.6 33 13 20 71.74 326 261 65 55.54 9.85 0.95 104.87 0 30
Rouyn-Noranda Huskies 13 52.81 37 20 17 64.91 313 278 35 52.96 11.25 0.935 104.73 9 35
Drummondville Voltigeurs 12 53.06 30 29 1 50.85 311 280 31 52.62 9.65 0.896 99.29 4 22.22
Acadie-Bathurst Titan 14 50.66 37 30 7 55.22 380 359 21 51.42 8.78 0.916 100.42 -5 31.25
Halifax Mooseheads 14 52.54 38 34 4 52.78 348 337 11 50.8 10.14 0.907 100.86 3 20
Cape Breton Screaming Eagles 14 49.59 40 31 9 56.34 364 354 10 50.7 10.5 0.918 102.26 16 20.41
Charlottetown Islanders 14 52.15 41 40 1 50.62 408 400 8 50.5 9.16 0.909 100.07 -18 31.71
Rimouski Océanic 13 52.71 31 39 -8 44.29 333 326 7 50.53 9.31 0.883 97.62 0 13.04
Baie-Comeau Drakkar 12 45.87 24 25 -1 48.98 285 287 -2 49.83 8.1 0.916 99.71 -5 42.86
Sherbrooke Phoenix 12 52.09 21 27 -6 43.75 315 322 -7 49.45 6.37 0.919 98.27 -1 21.05
Chicoutimi Saguenéens 12 46.7 16 20 -4 44.44 248 274 -26 47.51 6.07 0.93 99.11 3 7.69
Victoriaville Tigres 15 50 32 39 -7 45.07 351 377 -26 48.21 8.6 0.901 98.73 -9 26.09
Québec Remparts 14 48.83 29 31 -2 48.33 355 398 -43 47.14 8.17 0.924 100.61 -5 31.25
Gatineau Olympiques 13 39.68 18 36 -18 33.33 286 382 -96 42.81 6.29 0.906 96.87 -9 10
Moncton Wildcats 13 41.31 22 42 -20 34.38 262 359 -97 42.19 8.4 0.89 97.44 -13 31.58
Val-d’Or Foreurs 15 40.79 30 34 -4 46.88 272 417 -145 39.48 10.37 0.927 103.11 -3 42.86

The above table is sorted by 5-on-5 shot differential (thanks again, Prospects-Stats.com), and, simply put, the Sea Dogs are dominating. Look at those numbers: nearly 175 total shots more than Chicoutimi, about plus-300 in differential over Val-d’Or and plus-52 over No. 2 Blainville.

That’s a lot of shots and a massive disparity between Nos. 1 and 2.

But continue further right on table and you’ll find the problem. Saint John is last in the league in 5-on-5 shooting percentage—it’s really not close—and third from the bottom in the entire CHL. (Note: there are no 5-on-5 stats for the WHL.) Even when they get high-danger shot attempts—and no team has a better HD shot differential—the Dogs can’t bury. Saint John sports the fourth lowest HD Sh% in the Q as well.

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What all that has boiled down to is a negative goal differential at 5-on-5, and that’s not something easily overcome when the competition gets tougher in the playoffs. Granted, we’re a long way from the playoffs, and what we’re looking at is a relatively small sample size. But it’s fair to say that the metrics are showing the Sea Dogs need a sniper or two.

One that got away recently—although to the surprise of no one—is Shane Bowers, the fourth-overall pick in 2015 who didn’t report to Cape Breton. Saint John picked him in the second round last spring, even though his agent has been adamant for more than a year that Bowers would be heading to college, and Thursday that was confirmed.

Shane Bowers on Twitter

That is not to say there aren’t a few players who can score on this squad, but look at these 5-on-5 numbers.

Name Pos GP G P1 P Sh Sh% eP/60
Matthew Highmore C 14 4 8 10 55 7.27 2.74
Mathieu Joseph RW 12 6 7 7 36 16.67 1.88
Spencer Smallman RW 12 3 4 5 31 9.68 2.29
Joe Veleno C 9 1 4 5 23 4.35 2.41
Cedric Pare C 14 3 3 5 24 12.5 1.88
Matt Green C 14 0 3 3 15 0.0 1.19
Luke Green D 10 1 2 4 19 5.26 1.06
Bokondji Imama LW 12 1 2 3 28 3.57 1.28
Nathan Noel C 12 1 2 3 27 3.7 1.13
Alexandre Bernier D 14 0 2 3 28 0.0 0.58
Samuel Dove-McFalls C 12 2 2 2 22 9.09 0.86
Samuel Leblanc C 10 2 2 2 7 28.57 1.09
Jakub Zboril D 7 0 1 2 18 0 1.1
Zach Grzelewski LW 12 0 1 1 17 0.0 0.5
Cole Reginato LW 13 0 1 1 10 0.0 0.45
Olivier Mathieu LW 2 0 1 1 4 0.0 2.24
Bailey Webster D 13 0 1 1 9 0.0 0.39
Landon Quinney LW 6 0 0 1 3 0.0 0.81
Oliver Felixson D 13 0 0 1 15 0.0 0.49
Alexandre Lafreniere LW 2 0 0 1 0 0.0 2.83
Vincent Martineau D 7 0 0 1 6 0.0 0.68
Bryson Michel D 6 0 0 0 4 0.0 0.0
Chase Stewart D 13 0 0 0 7 0.0 0.0
John Warren LW 2 0 0 0 4 0.0 0.0
Kyle Ward RW 7 0 0 0 2 0.0 0.0
Gabriel Bettez D 2 0 0 0 2 0.0 0.0

Only Mathieu Joseph is really getting it done, to the point he has given himself a chance to audition for Team Canada at the world juniors. Overager Matthew Highmore has never been a goal-scorer of note. He’s a good player, but just look at his player page, it’s obvious his strength has always been as a playmaker. And yet, there he is, leading his team in 5-on-5 shots by a healthy margin (in fact, he’s leading the league), and finding the twine on just 7.27 percent of them.

Joe Veleno is hurt right now, but if the CHL’s most recent ‘exceptional player’ is going to prove to be a better judgement call than the CHL’s previous exceptional player, he’ll have to find the net more as well. Granted, he’s only 16, so he gets something of a pass here. Spencer Smallman deserves credit for putting together the beginnings of a season that will set career highs in goals and points.

Jakub Zboril; QMJHL; CHL; Saint John Sea Dogs; 2015 NHL Draft; Boston Bruins; Sportsnet
Jakub Zboril was drafted 13th overall by the Boston Bruins in 2015. (Francois Laplante/Getty)

There is no doubt that this team’s strength is a blueline anchored by NHL picks Jakub Zboril (13th overall in 2015), Luke Green (79th in 2016) and, very likely, Thomas Chabot (18th in 2015), assuming he’s returned by the Ottawa Senators. The D-corps is able to control play from the back end and transition the puck to their forwards. It’s just that, through 14 games at least, those forwards can’t really score.

The Sea Dogs have been surviving on a power play ranked fourth in the Q at 28.6 percent and 5-on-5 play so dominant that the sheer volume of shots they generate overwhelms opponents—the hockey gods aren’t going to keep them all from going in. But that is not a winning recipe for the long haul.

The question, then, is whether this run of poor shooting is just a blip, or an issue that needs to be addressed? And if it’s the latter, how long can GM Trevor Georgie wait to fix it?

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