20 Fantasy Thoughts: Watch out for Guentzel in 2017-18

Pittsburgh Penguins forward Jake Guentzel. (Gene J. Puskar/AP)

Every Sunday this season, we’ll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from the writers at Dobber Hockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s “Daily Ramblings” on DobberHockey.com.

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1. When we pick Penguins in playoff pools, we check off the usual names: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, and Kris Letang (when he’s healthy). At the rate he’s scoring, Jake Guentzel might be on that list very soon. The rookie scored two goals and added an assist to give him a playoff-leading seven tallies. Guentzel is currently ranked No. 99 by Dobber in his keeper rankings and #135 by Pete Jensen in his 2017-18 draft rankings. We never would have imagined that Guentzel would be ranked this high this quickly, but those rankings could climb even further because he absolutely clicks with Crosby.

2. Jean-Gabriel Pageau was probably way down on your list of playoff pool picks. But he played the game of his life on Saturday, scoring goals on all four of his shots. Pageau now has five goals during the playoffs, which tied him for the playoff lead as of the end of that game. He’s found chemistry in the past with snipers like Mark Stone, but the fact that he sees virtually no power-play time should lead you to believe that any success will be short-term. Still, it was a fantastic game for the local Ottawa boy.

3. Brady Skjei scored two goals in Game 2 versus the Senators, giving him four goals total during the playoffs. Skjei scored just five all season, but he finished a point shy of 40 in his rookie season. He might normally seem like a good bet to improve in his sophomore season, but the Rangers’ defense has several veterans above him on the depth chart and probably not going anywhere. He’d likely need an increase in ice time, or at least an increase in power-play time, as he averaged just 17 minutes this season. Despite that, he has the makings of a very strong fantasy contributor by his third or fourth season.

4. Going goal-dry in the playoffs is nothing new. Sometimes, the bounces don’t work in your favour in short samples, and Max Pacioretty just couldn’t find the back of the net. While the shots per game took a hit this year, there still isn’t really cause for concern with the Canadiens captain, and should still be viewed as a 30-goal scorer. He was a top-40(ish) pick in most drafts this past year. I’m intrigued to see where he goes next year.

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5. In an interview a few days ago, the Los Angeles Kings’ new coach John Stevens specifically brought up having control with the puck entering the zone, and creating more from the slot. This should be good news for fantasy owners.

Players like Jake Muzzin and Anze Kopitar, coming off less-than-stellar offensive seasons, should come at a discount at the draft table next year. With a healthy Marian Gaborik (if that’s possible) and Tyler Toffoli, another solid season from Tanner Pearson, and the consistency in Jeff Carter, this is still a good top-six. A change in offensive philosophy should help the fantasy-relevant players, and that is music to the ears of the fantasy community.

6. Scott Darling’s sample size is still small – just over 3300 minutes over the last three seasons at five-on-five – but he does sport a .932 save percentage in those minutes. His high-danger save percentage, which has been shown to be a good indicator of long-term success, is second in the league in that sample. In short, though he hasn’t played a bevy of games. The ones he has played has shown us a very good goaltender.

Going to Carolina could give us a fantasy-relevant goaltender from that team for the first time in years. With an improving squad as a whole, and a good defence corps in particular, this is a good situation for him, and for fantasy owners. We’ll see if he ends up signing, but if he does, this is a goalie with top-15 potential next season assuming he’s the full-time starter. Handling a 55-plus start workload is another discussion, but this is a step in the right direction for a franchise that has been with very few successes over the last decade.

7. After missing the entire season, Mattias Janmark signed a contract extension with the Stars on Thursday. He proved to be a serviceable middle-line asset in his debut campaign two years ago, and Janmark especially showed well with his vision, positioning and decision-making. He’s a nice complement to skilled players for these reasons.

He’ll need a larger offensive role to make much fantasy noise, but there is certainly potential. Being exempt from the expansion draft — according to Cap Friendly at least — also helps his case. Dallas should have enough pieces in place for a rebound season in 2017-18.

8. Steve Yzerman announced that Steven Stamkos and Ryan Callahan would be ready for the beginning of the 2017-18 season and will continue to rehab during the summer.

Callahan is definitely off the fantasy radar in most settings. He was limited to just 18 games last year and posted only 28 points through 73 contests in 2105-16. His foot speed is also a questionable fit with Tampa Bay’s fast-paced attack.

9. Then there is Stamkos. After showing signs of decline for the better part of two seasons, he was off to a torrid start last fall before suffering the knee injury. He projects to slot right back into go-to offensive minutes with a key role on the No. 1 power-play unit. Considering the surrounding talent, the fantasy setting is almost perfect.

Many will be scared off by his health, and Stamkos has missed chunks of two seasons. However, in the other seven, he’s dressed for nearly every game. His injuries have been on the fluky side, too. If there is a draft-day discount, his upside — especially in the goals and power-play points columns — is worth targeting.

10. After a solid freshman campaign, especially down the stretch, Nick Schmaltz will represent the U.S. in the World Championships. He’s likely solidified himself as a middle-line forward for Chicago going forward, but Jonathan Toews probably isn’t a legitimate go-to scorer anymore, and Patrick Kane has established chemistry with Artemi Panarin and Artem Anisimov.

Schmaltz also registered just 66 shots through 61 games, so you’re looking at a one-category contributor in all likelihood. It’s worth noting that his 1.23 primary assists per 60 minutes at five-on-five ranked third in the league among all skaters with at least 500 minutes last year, though. So, there is definitely legitimate vision and skill. An uptick in shot volume will still be needed to make Schmaltz a set-and-forget fantasy option, though.

11. Maybe some people are disappointed with Sam Reinhart’s performance so far. Let’s look at this in a bit of context, though. He just finished his age-21 season, and has played 167 games. In those games, he’s managed 0.54 points per game. Other players to have recently managed around the same point-per-game mark through their first three years, by the age of 21? Tyler Seguin at 0.6, Jonathan Drouin and Jonathan Huberdeau at 0.58, Ryan O’Reilly at 0.52, and Ryan Johansen at 0.51. Were Reinhart to end up as any of those players, I doubt fantasy owners would be disappointed.

The raw results haven’t been there yet, with Reinhart not cracking the 50-point plateau in a season. However, the underlying results that can lead to good seasons have been there, and a healthy Jack Eichel should go a long way in boosting his point totals next season. Hopefully the new coaching staff will leave them together, because that could be a very special second line in very short order.

12. What concerns me about Rasmus Ristolainen is just how much he relies on the power play for his production. A full 53.5 per cent of his points over the last two years have been with the man advantage. That is higher than Shayne Gostisbehere (52.9 per cent), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (48.9 per cent) and Drew Doughty (45.2 per cent), all among the leaders in power-play points over the last two years. Being so reliant on the man advantage has one big drawback: if the team ever gets away from loading up one PP unit, he’s toast.

There is no real reason to sound the alarm at this point. We will see what, if anything, Buffalo does to add top-end defencemen via trade or free agency in the off-season. Should another offensive defenceman be added to the mix, it could be a serious detriment to Ristolainen’s upside due to a lack of five-on-five production. Keep an eye on what the Sabres do in the coming couple of months.

13. Just a general observation here but Anton Slephyshev has looked very, very good. I’m not sure how much fantasy value he’ll have in the 2017-18 season assuming he’s off the top line and top PP unit in Edmonton, but he and Jesse Puljujarvi could round out this Edmonton attack nicely if they keep progressing as they have.

14. Legendary fantasy hockey bust Fabian Brunnstrom has retired from hockey. He was the hottest undrafted free agent signing of 2008. Along the same lines of Roman Cervenka, Jiri Dopita, Janne Pesonen, Damien Brunner and Artemi Panarin – you can see the ups and downs of falling for the hype.

In the case of Brunnstrom, he kicked off his NHL career with a hat trick in his first game and he had five points in his first four NHL games. Talk about getting off to a good start. He had 36 points in 100 games after that (so 41 in 104), which are actually decent numbers for a player that age starting his NHL career. But when he slowed, he was sent to the AHL. His confidence seemingly shattered because he stopped producing even at that level and he couldn’t earn his way back up. He’s now 32.

15. Handing Charlie McAvoy next year’s Calder Trophy is a little premature, and it isn’t out of the question that he isn’t even fantasy relevant in shallow settings next season. For starters, Torey Krug should resume quarterback duty on the No. 1 power-play unit, and a healthy blue line should keep him closer to 20 or 22 minutes than 25 or 26.

Additionally, the rigors of an entire NHL season will take a toll. It’s rare that an NCAA product doesn’t slow down in the second half of their debut season. Dylan Larkin and Zach Werenski stand as recent reminders. It’s pretty rare for a rookie defenseman to return a full season of fantasy value, too.

16. There is nothing more Juuse Saros dynasty owners want than a Pekka Rinne blow-up, but it appears the elder statesman is probably pretty secure as the No. 1. It makes sense to start Saros a little more next season, but it’ll likely be difficult to find him anything more than 24 to 28 starts without a Rinne injury.

There is probably a wide range of outcomes for Nashville next year, but the Predators do a lot of things right, including limit high-danger chances and play a sound possession game. That’s a huge help to a goalie’s fantasy value, so Rinne’s likely to play well enough to hold off Saros. The younger Finn looks the part of a solid No. 1, though, so his time should come.

17. Washington might have wingers on the way out, and while both T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams could return, they could also opt to walk. The obviously candidate to climb the depth chart is Andre Burakovsky. However, the skill and rambunctiousness Tom Wilson brings might be a better fit. He’s skilled and an annoyance to play against. If he slides into a more offensive role, there is potential for him to be a Brad Marchand-type asset. Not the Marchand we’ve seen the past two years but similar to the player that was a modest cross-category contributor from 2010-11 through 2014-15.

Wilson enters his age-23 season next year and, with a more significant role, he could easily take a step forward offensively. There is a chance that he’s consistently deployed down the depth chart and continues his agitators role, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the Capitals brass wanted to see if Wilson can step up his game. He was a first-round pick and has bided his time, after all.

18. Ryan Spooner lost his job the last two games versus the Senators to rookie Sean Kuraly. Kuraly has a little upside but not too much. Whereas Spooner has pretty good upside and I think will bounce back next season. Still, it’s troubling to see this.

19. Ilya Kovalchuk wants back into the NHL, so I’ll weigh in on expectations. Now, he’s wanted this for two years now and he’s still a full year away from being allowed to return without restriction, but this time it seems more realistic.

Things are different this year because Kovalchuk is actually playing like a superstar in the KHL. After three seasons of barely hovering around the point-per-game mark, this past season (his fourth) has seen his numbers surge to 78 points in 60 games. Perhaps the arrival of teammate Pavel Datsyuk has inspired him in some way, but Kovalchuk has found his mojo again. He just turned 34 years old, so I would hold my expectations to something similar to what we just saw from Alexander Radulov in his first full season back in the NHL.

20. Jake Allen’s strong play over the past month (strong is a term that doesn’t do him justice) has me firmly on board in fantasy leagues now. I wasn’t this past year – and that turned out to be pretty smart because 33 wins in 61 games and a .915 SV% are numbers that would make his preseason hype very much overrated. Glad I wasn’t a part of that. But in the coming season Allen has his act together and works well under the current team coaching style. I can see a 40-win season and a .920 SV%, Top 5-7 status. This I now trust because even if he gets injured, he’ll return and have his job back.

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