Despite Elias Pettersson‘s essentially unchallenged run towards the Calder Trophy last season, there was an impression around the league that the physical attrition of his first season in the NHL wore Pettersson down a little bit in the second half of the year.
As the Canucks continue their unlikely drive to make the playoffs for the first time since the 2014-15 season, led in large part by Pettersson and rookie Quinn Hughes, that perception doesn’t really exist this season.
Pettersson remains a relatively slight player at 6-foot-2 and just 176 pounds according to the NHL, but even if he didn’t bulk up too much over the last off-season, getting used to the grind of an NHL season has surely helped him weather the day-to-day bumps and bruises the second time around.
However, I always question how true perceptions are, especially when they’re based on point production. Last season Pettersson produced 39 points in his first 36 games of the season and 27 points in 35 games the rest of the way. That’s definitely a slowdown, but how much did his performance change?
Well… looking at Pettersson’s offensive contributions at 5-on-5 last season my doubt of that narrative doesn’t look very justified now. In the second half of last season, Pettersson saw his ability to complete a pass to the slot area drop by over 50 per cent, which frankly is a much bigger drop off than I expected.
In the first half of last season Pettersson was among the most dangerous playmakers in the entire league, and in the second half he was slightly below league average. That’s an incredible difference that becomes quite obvious to the eye when watching the games.
His drop in play wasn’t just limited to playmaking either, with Pettersson’s inner slot shot production dropping by nearly 60 per cent, and his shot production from the slot area overall dropping by nearly a third.
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Pettersson’s drop-off in play at even strength was even more severe than his drop in overall production made it appear, since he continued to consistently produce on the power play and relied on his talent to outpace the actual inputs that create goals.
Seeing that big of a drop is a little bit of a worry considering the Canucks have lost seven of their past 10 games and are currently outside of a wild card spot by one point. Vancouver does have a game in hand over the Minnesota Wild and two on the Winnipeg Jets, but they’re also fighting the Nashville Predators for one of those spots.
So is Pettersson due for a drop in production again this season as the grind wears on him? Let’s take a look at how he’s coping this time.
To put it succinctly: Nope.
Pettersson’s first half this season wasn’t quite as stellar at even strength as last season, but he has only improved as we’ve gone on. He’s also really refused to shoot from the perimeter.
Seriously, 71 per cent of Pettersson’s shot attempts since Jan. 1 have come from the slot, a top-five mark in the league, and the other players in that stratosphere are all net-front guys only, not elite playmakers like Pettersson.
Pettersson has always been very choosy with his shots, but he’s taken that to another level in the second half and also increased the rate at which he’s shooting from the slot and inner slot — he has a career high rate of inner slot shots at 5-on-5.
Of the rush, he has yet to hit the heights that he did in last season’s first half, but if you’ll recall when I broke down the Pacific Division playoff race, the Canucks are the worst rush team in the NHL this season, and I think it’s extremely fair to say he’s held back by that a little bit. And yet Pettersson has still managed to improve his rush chances in the second half.
From a playmaking perspective, Pettersson isn’t hitting slot passes at the rate he did in his rookie season yet, but once again he’s been more reliable in that area in the second half of the season than he was in the first half. And at no point this season has he dipped below league average.
The addition of J.T. Miller to the Canucks and specifically Pettersson’s line also adds a dimension that wasn’t there before. Miller leads all Canucks in completed slot passes this season, which means the team doesn’t rely as heavily on Pettersson to do all the playmaking. His overall slot pass completions are down, but his completion rate on those passes has risen from 39 per cent last season to 46 per cent this season.
By attempting fewer slot passes Pettersson is more likely to be the designated shooter, and is failing on plays less often, which is a pretty good deal to make.
Whatever happens with the Canucks down the stretch, I don’t think a faltering Elias Pettersson is going to be an issue. He’s adjusted to the league, he’s more insulated with better linemates, and he’s getting better as a player all the time.
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