Like we did for the Selke and Hart Trophies, nearing the end of the season it’s time to look at another major NHL award: the James Norris Memorial Trophy, awarded annually to the NHL’s “top defence player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability at the position.”
Let’s get one thing clear before we begin; this award is not given out for playing good defensively. It has never been that, and likely never will be. The point of the award is the best defenceman in terms of “all-round ability”, meaning that as the role of the position changes, so too should our criteria for awarding it.
Before Doug Harvey and Bobby Orr, defencemen were expected to pretty much only defend, but the game has changed and continues to do so. Modern defencemen are tasked with more responsibility than ever in driving play and goals for, not just preventing goals against.
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Until about a month ago, there wasn’t much debate surrounding the Norris, it was going to Brent Burns, full stop, and the only first-place votes that wouldn’t go for him were probably coming out of Ottawa. However, the Sharks, and Burns himself, falling off a cliff to end the year has muddied the waters and re-opened the debate.
Taking the totality of their play into account, here are the five defencemen who stood out statistically above the rest of the pack:
Turnover rates are inverted so that positive = good and negative = bad.
Burns and Mark Giordano are the big drivers of goal and shot differentials this year, with Drew Doughty and Victor Hedman close in one category each, and Karlsson lagging far behind.
However, Karlsson’s numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt here. With Marc Methot, the Swede has an extremely substandard 47 per cent Corsi, while without Methot he bumps up to 53.2. Based on a plethora of other statistics, I’m pretty sure that Karlsson’s sudden drop in his differentials has been caused by an off-year from Methot (whether that’s decline or injury doesn’t really matter for this) more than anything Karlsson has done. You could however make the argument that Karlsson’s change in style of play to more focus on things like shot blocking makes him less able to compensate for Methot’s weaknesses.
Another thing I have to bring up with Karlsson is he has unquestionably been the NHL’s best defenceman for the last three years preceding this one, so in my mind he deserves some benefit of the doubt here.
In terms of turnovers and pass success rates, Doughty has been the gold standard in the NHL this season, just like he was last year. However, Karlsson is right there on his heels in lack of turnovers, and Karlsson plays the puck significantly more often, and makes more daring plays with it.
Karlsson also leads in controlled exit rate relative to team, and when he’s not able to manufacture a clean exit, he’s the best at getting the puck out of the zone to relieve some pressure.
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Giordano also shows strong across nearly every category, and when you combine that with his obscene impact on goals, it’s tough to ignore him as a major candidate.
I think there’s enough public data out there to get a good grasp on offensive impact, but what most people don’t have access to is data to evaluate a player’s work without the puck, so I want to focus on that.
Karlsson stands out in the defensive zone here, leading all defencemen in loose puck recoveries on dump-ins and in the defensive zone in general, not to mention his much-publicized increase in blocked shots.
However here I think is where you see Hedman stand out a little bit more; leading all defencemen in offensive zone and neutral zone loose puck recoveries, and tying for second in defensive zone recoveries that aren’t off dump-ins. He’s also the most disruptive defenceman of the group, leading everyone in successful stick checks, and he leads the league in blocked passes.
I think how you would vote for this award comes down to a couple of questions. How important are personal goals to your analysis? If you believe a defenceman scoring goals themselves is extremely important, it’s tough to argue that Burns’ weakness in turnovers and loose puck recoveries matters much.
If you’re all about goal and shot differential impacts, you’re split between Giordano and Burns, though I would argue that Giordano faces more pressure as a de facto No. 1 defenceman in all situations, and his microstats are also stronger.
However, if you’re looking at which player exerts the most influence on the game as an individual, keeping context in mind, I just don’t know how you can ignore Karlsson. To be completely frank, he was robbed of a Norris last season that was given out as a lifetime achievement award to a player who had a great season, and truthfully Karlsson doesn’t stand out as much this year as he did last year.
With that said though, he has changed his game, for the worse, and remains the league’s top defenceman in terms of individual impact. He was my pick last year, and is this year too.
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