Once again, Washington Capitals star Alex Ovechkin leads the National Hockey League in goals after notching his 25th marker with his 21st career hat trick Tuesday night.
Ovechkin is currently on pace to score a staggering 68 goals. If he does, it would mark the first time he — or anyone else — tops 50 in a season since 2015-16. A 68-goal campaign would also surpass Ovechkin’s career-best, single-season total of 65 from 2007-08.
But in addition to Ovechkin’s astonishing pace, there are currently 10 other NHL players on track to find the net 50 times or more this season. For context, since 2010 only four players have posted a 50-goal season.
Here’s a look at the players currently on pace to score 50 goals or more in 2018-19, and their projected total based on their goals-per-game averages and assuming full health for the rest of their team’s regular season.
You have to go all the way back to 2005-06 to find the last time the NHL featured five or more 50-goal scorers in a single season (Jonathan Cheechoo, Jaromir Jagr, Ilya Kovalchuk, Ovechkin, Dany Heatley).
The last time the NHL had 11 or more 50-goal scorers? It’s been a quarter of a century, going back to 1992-93.
| NHL Goals Leaders 1992-93 | |
|---|---|
| Player | Total goals |
| Alexander Mogilny | 76 |
| Teemu Selanne | 76 |
| Mario Lemieux | 69 |
| Luc Robitaille | 63 |
| Pavel Bure | 60 |
| Steve Yzerman | 58 |
| Pierre Turgeon | 58 |
| Kevin Stevens | 55 |
| Dave Andreychuk | 54 |
| Brett Hull | 54 |
| Mark Recchi | 53 |
| Pat LaFontaine | 53 |
| Brendan Shanahan | 51 |
| Jeremy Roenick | 50 |
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Last season, NHL teams scored at a rate of 2.97 goals per game — the highest in 12 years. This season, teams are eclipsing that mark, scoring 3.09 goals per game, which would be the most since 1995-96 when the league average was 3.14.
And as Rory Boylen recently pointed out, in years past, goal scoring has tended to decrease after an early adjustment period at the beginning of the season. But with over a third of this season now in the books, and goal scoring still at levels we haven’t seen in over two decades, there’s reason to believe this could be something sustainable.
As for why, a good place to start is in net, where after reducing the size of goaltender pads two years ago, keepers were challenged again this season with a reduction of their chest and arm protection, giving snipers that much more room to target between the pipes.
As an example, check out this recent overtime winner by Buffalo Sabres forward Jack Eichel.
The average save percentage around the league this season is .907 — a 10-year low, down five points from last season’s .912. Teams are shooting less and scoring more, including on the power play.
This season, teams are converting on 20.47 per cent of their power-play opportunities — a number that has been steadily rising for the past two decades. Last year, teams were converting on 20.18 per cent of their power-play chances. In 2010-11, teams were converting at just 18.02 per cent. In 2005-06 the number was 17.38 per cent.
In a dynamic league where the demand for skill has never been higher and as goalies adjust to smaller equipment, it’s not farfetched to believe that that the goal-scoring rate in today’s NHL is indeed sustainable.
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