TORONTO — The upcoming MLB off-season will be anything but typical.
With the collective bargaining agreement set to expire Dec. 1, those working in the baseball industry expect a work stoppage — maybe a long one. And whenever there’s resolution, major structural changes are possible, forcing front offices to adapt in the second part of what will likely be a two-act off-season.
But oddly enough, this potentially transformative period will begin just like any other winter.
“We’ll be prepared right from the start,” Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins said last week. “We're operating business as usual and ready. You're ready to go from day one. We have some work to do, but day one's not here yet. Having said that, we’re always — in everything we're doing — preparing for multiple outcomes.”
As Atkins acknowledges, teams may have to adjust as the winter progresses. But until there’s clarity on what’s ahead, MLB execs must simply follow the current rules. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the upcoming MLB calendar, how it applies to the Blue Jays and where the expiring CBA could have the greatest impact on the weeks ahead:
First day after World Series ends
What happens: Eligible players become free agents, but can’t yet sign deals with new teams; trades are once again permitted.
Significance for Blue Jays: Prominent players including Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer, George Springer, Jameson Taillon, Yimi García, Paul Sewald, Patrick Corbin and Luis Urías will hit free agency.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are allowed to reach out to players from other big-league teams but can’t yet complete deals with them. Historically, this has been an important chance for the Blue Jays to communicate early interest to priority free agents.
Impact of the expiring CBA: None.
Fifth day after World Series ends
What happens: Qualifying offer decisions are due for teams; free agents can sign with any club; all players must be reinstated from the 60-day injured list onto the 40-man roster; minor-league free agency opens.
Significance for Blue Jays: With no qualifying offers expected from the Blue Jays this winter and ample roster space to accommodate players returning from the 60-day IL, the biggest development here is the start of free agency. That also includes minor-league free agency, which can yield some hidden gems.
Impact of the expiring CBA: Qualifying offers are expected to occur as usual, so that much won’t change. Yet many in the sport anticipate a hectic November with teams pushing hard to land free agents before Dec. 1. How will they handle the possibility of new spending restrictions? Well, as Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro said, “any new system adopted, there will be a timeframe for adjustment into that system.” In other words, teams will look to make their teams better now and adjust to any new rules later.
Fifteenth day after World Series ends
What happens: Qualifying offers are due for players.
Significance for Blue Jays: Likely none, as the likes of Springer, Bieber and Scherzer don’t appear to be QO candidates.
Impact of the expiring CBA: None. Qualifying offers are expected to occur as usual.
Nov. 17
What happens: Teams must add Rule 5 eligible players to their 40-man roster by 6 p.m. ET or expose them to their 29 rivals.
Significance for Blue Jays: Utility player Jay Harry and pitchers including Nolan Perry, Gage Stanifer, Daniel Guerra and Josh Stephan are Rule 5 eligible this year, so some 40-man space will be needed.
Impact of the expiring CBA: This is one area where the expiring CBA can’t be ignored. The Rule 5 Draft always leads to some interesting strategy, and that’s especially true this year.
Five years ago, the last time the CBA expired, teams still protected players in November only to have the draft cancelled due to that winter’s lockout.
This time around, executives have no choice but to respect the deadline and prepare as though there will be a draft, but in the back of their minds they’ll still be aware it may not happen. Strategically, that could nudge teams to err on the side of protecting fewer players and keeping more 40-man spots free.
Nov. 20
What happens: Teams must tender contracts to all arbitration-eligible players.
Significance for Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have eight arbitration-eligible players, including Ernie Clement, José Soriano, Josh Smith, Bowden Francis, Spencer Arrighetti, Louis Varland, Nathan Lukes and Davis Schneider. Some, like Varland, are automatic. Others, like Smith, are tougher calls. One way or another, the free agent pool around the league always expands at the tender deadline.
Impact of the expiring CBA: None. This is business as usual.
Dec. 1
What happens: At 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1, the current CBA expires.
Significance for Blue Jays: The off-season will likely come to a halt for the Blue Jays and their rivals. Since teams can’t contact 40-man players during a lockout, the Blue Jays will have to be sure their entire roster has extensive workout plans in place, a process that was already beginning as the 2026 regular season came to an end.
Impact of the expiring CBA: The owners are expected to lock out the players.
Dec. 7-9
What happens: MLB Winter Meetings, San Diego
Impact of the expiring CBA: Baseball people expect the meetings to be cancelled.
Dec. 8
What happens: MLB Draft Lottery
Significance for Blue Jays: The Blue Jays will have to wait to see if they can beat their estimated 1.04 per cent odds at the top selection and luck into the first overall pick.
Impact of the expiring CBA: Assuming there’s a lockout, the MLB Draft Lottery won’t take place until there’s a new agreement.
Dec. 9
What happens: Rule 5 Draft, Winter Meetings, San Diego
Impact of the expiring CBA: Assuming there’s a lockout, the Rule 5 Draft won’t take place as scheduled and may not take place at all.
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