The first four months of the Toronto Blue Jays' season were disappointing, but they're now on the cusp of the American League playoff picture anyway.
Over the course of a week, the Blue Jays elevated their FanGraphs playoff odds from 9.9 per cent to 32.3 per cent with a weekend sweep of the Seattle Mariners and a crucial series win over the Cleveland Guardians.
The Blue Jays secured the season series tiebreaker between the two clubs and moved 0.5 games back of the Guardians for the final AL wild-card spot with a 6-3 win in the rubber match on Thursday. They won the same tiebreaker over the New York Yankees last season, resulting in a division title when the two teams finished with equal records. It could be the deciding factor again if Toronto ends up tied with Cleveland.
Toronto will now ride high into a weekend series in Kansas City, aiming to take control of what now looks like a four-horse race between the Guardians, Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers. The Blue Jays also have three games remaining in Texas (also 0.5 games back) and a pair of three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles (one game back).
While Toronto is surging now, it also had season-low 4.3 per cent playoff odds a month ago. The last two seasons, the Guardians and Detroit Tigers went on miraculous September runs, coming back from 2.9 and 5.9 per cent odds on this same date, respectively, to earn post-season berths. Unpredictable things happen in Major League Baseball; that's why it's so compelling.
The Blue Jays' recent performance perfectly illustrates how much one hot week can change a tight post-season race. With that in mind, let's take a look at the crowded field.
If the post-season started today
American League
No. 1 and AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays (83-57): Bye
No. 2 and AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox (73-67): Bye
No. 3 and AL West-leading Houston Astros (72-69) vs. No. 6 Cleveland Guardians (70-70)
No. 4 New York Yankees (80-60) vs. No. 5 Boston Red Sox (76-65)
Within striking distance
The Blue Jays and Rangers are within a half game of the Guardians, the Orioles are 1.5 back, the Minnesota Twins are three games out, and the Mariners and Detroit Tigers are slowly fading from the picture like Marty McFly in Back to the Future.
In addition to making up ground on the team they're chasing directly and securing the all-important tiebreaker this week, the Blue Jays also jumped over the Orioles and tied the Rangers, who hold the season tiebreaker. It was a particularly dispiriting stretch for the Orioles, who the woeful Colorado Rockies walked off in Wednesday's series rubber match before Adley Rutschman returned to Baltimore on Thursday and bashed two homers, powering a Boston Red Sox win.
Meanwhile, the Twins outscored the Tigers 32-14 over a three-game slugfest to start the week, inching forward half a game by winning the first two. At 5.5 games back, Detroit is all but out of the race, barring a sweep of the incumbent Guardians this weekend.
The Mariners are almost as far out as the Tigers, yet their odds are significantly higher because they're also six games behind the Houston Astros for the AL West lead, giving them two avenues to October. Plus, nine of Seattle's next 12 games come against the Athletics and Los Angeles Angels.
Burning questions for the AL wild-card race this weekend
Can the Blue Jays' newly hot offence support the back end of the rotation? Over the first four months of the season, the Blue Jays scored the fewest runs in MLB. But since they got hot at the start of August (19-12), they've been out of the bottom 10 and even have a middling 97 wRC+. Over the last week, they're top-10 in both categories. The former numbers are far from world-beating, and the latter is a tiny sample.
Either way, offence will be key as the Blue Jays tentatively plan to start Jameson Taillon on Friday and run yet another bullpen game on Sunday, on the other side of Max Scherzer's start. Taillon has struggled to a 5.68 ERA this year. Probable bulk guy Spencer Arrighetti has been even worse since joining the Blue Jays. Alternatively, Scherzer just had his best start in a Blue Jays uniform, but the 42-year-old has still been prone to walks and home runs. The bats will have to keep up their recent pace for the Blue Jays to maintain their upward trajectory over the weekend. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looking like himself, as he did in Wednesday's blowout win, would be game-changing.
Who could drop back next? The field has already started thinning, with the Mariners and Tigers falling further behind in the rearview. The Orioles now have another three games against a sizzling Red Sox offence and will also see Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray and Payton Tolle, while sending Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt and Kyle Bradish to the mound to match. Beyond that, Baltimore has the most difficult strength of schedule of any AL team still in the race, including back-to-back series against the Guardians and Blue Jays next week. At this stage, a heater could separate any team from the pack, and a cold streak would be catastrophic. Some teams are better set up than others based on recent trends, strength of schedule, and number of games against fellow clubs in the wild-card push.
How far could ripples of Rangers' series reach? After taking Game 1 of their four-game series against the Rays 6-0 on Thursday, the Rangers have now won four of five. Conversely, Tampa Bay is coming off a series loss to the lowly Mets. If Texas keeps winning and Tampa Bay keeps losing, the implications could extend all the way up the standings. Not only are the Rangers 0.5 games back of the wild-card, but they're also two games back of the Astros in the AL West, and could pass them before the end of the week. Whoever ultimately wins the third AL wild card is likely to play the AL West winner. The Yankees are also hot and now sit only three games back of the Rays for the top spot in the Junior Circuit. They could catch up to them this weekend, too. And Aaron Judge could return next week.
A coveted bye to the AL division series hangs in the balance between New York and Tampa Bay. It provides immense value, allowing teams to line up optimal pitching plans and avoid a volatile three-game wild-card series. The Rangers taking care of business could start to shift the entire playoff picture. Meanwhile, the Rays returning to form would further solidify the current standings.
Playoff odds report
Here are the playoff odds for teams battling for post-season positions in the AL as of Friday morning, calculated by FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.
Tampa Bay's FanGraphs odds: 100% | Tampa Bay's Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Chicago's FanGraphs odds: 82.2% | Chicago's Baseball Reference odds: 93.9%
Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 78.1% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 83.6%
New York’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 98.4% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.3%
Cleveland's FanGraphs odds: 44% | Cleveland's Baseball Reference odds: 34.2%
Texas’s FanGraphs odds: 32.5% | Texas’s Baseball Reference odds: 25.7%
Toronto's FanGraphs odds: 32.3% | Toronto's Baseball Reference odds: 36.5%
Baltimore's FanGraphs odds: 10.8% | Baltimore's Baseball Reference odds: 14.4%
Seattle's FanGraphs odds: 11.6% | Seattle's Baseball Reference odds: 4.7%
Minnesota's FanGraphs odds: 9.2% | Minnesota's Baseball Reference odds: 6.9%
Detroit's FanGraphs odds: 0.9% | Detroit's Baseball Reference odds: 0.9%
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