TORONTO -- With the likes of George Springer, Marcus Semien and Kirby Yates officially on the roster, the Toronto Blue Jays are now a legitimate contender, not a team on the fringes hoping it all breaks right.
According to FanGraphs, only five MLB teams have better projected winning percentages: the Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Mets and Braves. At Baseball Prospectus, the PECOTA projections forecast an 85-77 record. That’s a pretty good place to be.
And yet, there’s no reason to stop now. Both projection models see the Angels, Rays, Cleveland, White Sox and even Red Sox in a similar range as the Blue Jays. So there’s sure to be pressure -- and one way to alleviate it is by creating further separation. At this point, each additional win makes a big difference.
With that in mind, I tried to find weaknesses on the Blue Jays’ roster. After all, for every vulnerable spot, there should be a corresponding opportunity to improve. In some cases, it’s easy to see what’s needed. In others, the search for weakness hints at potential next steps for the front office…
The obvious weakness: starting pitching
By now it’s clear the Blue Jays could use another starting pitcher, not just someone who can help them contend over the course of a 162-game season, but ideally someone they’d want starting a playoff game. The Blue Jays’ recent interest in Taijuan Walker and James Paxton suggests they agree.
The solution: A deal with Walker or Paxton would be the most obvious improvement the team could make this month. Regardless of whether that materializes, it already seems likely the Blue Jays will also have interest in frontline starting pitching if they’re contending at the trade deadline.
Opportunity cost: An addition to the rotation would compound an innings crunch for rotation candidates like Tyler Chatwood, Steven Matz and Trent Thornton, while a trade involving Tanner Roark might also become more likely. Plus, with a full 40-man roster, each addition now requires a subtraction.
Rounding out the offence: lefty bench bat
Last year, players coming off the Blue Jays' bench combined for a .636 OPS with just one home run in 78 plate appearances. In 2021, they must aspire to be better.
By adding Springer to an already-full outfield, the Blue Jays also strengthened their bench, but there’s still more work to be done here, particularly from the left side.
Since the Blue Jays have no switch-hitters and just two regulars who bat left (Cavan Biggio and Rowdy Tellez), they’re a very right-handed team. Big picture, that’s not a major problem because the Blue Jays’ right-handed hitters hit everyone well. Last year, for instance, the Blue Jays hit righties and lefties about equally.
But there are still specific scenarios in which a lefty bat would be useful. Among them:
• Stacking the lineup against pitchers like Domingo German or Felix Hernandez who struggle against lefties.
• While the Blue Jays aren’t likely to need to pinch-hit much, a lefty bench bat would be useful in some scenarios, particularly when the Blue Jays visit NL parks and pinch-hit for pitchers.
• The mere threat of a quality lefty bench bat could make life a little harder on opposing managers late in games.
Defensively speaking, it would be ideal if this player was a plus defender at first and/or third base. While Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has worked hard to improve his conditioning, he’s been decidedly below average as a defender to this point in his career, so having a strong defensive backup would be ideal for days Rowdy Tellez is the DH.
The solution: There’s no singular answer here, which reduces the urgency for the Blue Jays. In free agency, the likes of Brad Miller and Marwin Gonzalez are fits. On the trade market, Colin Moran and Adam Frazier of the Pirates are intriguing.
Opportunity cost: If the Blue Jays add a bench bat, it becomes that much harder for someone like Santiago Espinal or Derek Fisher to make the team (not that that’s necessarily a bad thing). At some point, Fisher’s 40-man spot could be in jeopardy, too.
The perpetual need: veteran catcher
As a team with lots of young catching on the rise, the Blue Jays are well-positioned behind the plate, but there’s always room for a veteran backstop. With five catchers on their 40-man roster already, the Blue Jays probably aren’t about to give out a major-league deal here, but there’s little harm in adding a non-roster catcher to provide insurance.
The solution: The likes of Drew Butera, Dustin Garneau, Welington Castillo and Bryan Holaday signed minor-league deals already, and that sort of addition would help the Blue Jays. Familiar names like Jeff Mathis and Tyler Flowers are available.
Opportunity cost: Minimal.
The finishing touch: left-handed relief
Let’s imagine it’s July, and the Blue Jays are in a playoff race. Ryan Borucki’s command issues have subsided and he’s pitching well. With runners on and the top of the Red Sox order up in the sixth inning, Charlie Montoyo calls on Borucki to face lefties Alex Verdugo and Rafael Devers. Borucki does the job. Which is great -- until the eighth inning, when those lefties are due up once again. Or until the next day when Borucki needs a breather and a similar situation arises.
The example’s hypothetical, of course, but still reinforces the value in a second lefty. With Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe and Ji-Man Choi atop their order, the Rays pose a similar challenge.
Maybe Tim Mayza can come back from Tommy John surgery to become a second lefty for the Blue Jays. At times, they’ve trusted the right-handed Rafael Dolis against tough lefties, too. But there’s still room to improve here.
The solution: A minor-league deal for a pitcher like Justin Wilson, Oliver Perez or Tony Watson would make sense and allow the Blue Jays to evaluate their options in spring training. And though lefties are obviously the conventional choice to retire lefties, that’s not a hard and fast rule. The right-handed Trevor Rosenthal, for example, has actually been tougher against lefties throughout his career. He’d be an excellent fit.
Opportunity cost: There’s virtually no downside to a minor-league deal on this front, while a major-league deal would mean the Blue Jays have to make room on the 40-man.
