The 2020-21 NBA season has turned into a battle of attrition more than anything else. With injuries and COVID-19 protocol already turning a shortened track meet of a schedule into something that simply needs to be endured rather than conquered, it’s harder than ever to label any given match-up a ‘big’ game.
But even in these unusual times, the Milwaukee Bucks -- a perennial favourite in the Eastern Conference -- visiting is an opportunity to see where the Toronto Raptors stack up.
On a night when the Raptors couldn’t quite wrestle the game to the ground but kept grinding to the very end of a 115-108 loss, the analysis might be: good, but not quite good enough. Toronto couldn’t squeeze out enough offence after an 11-point run by Kyle Lowry and a corner three by Stanley Johnson pulled them within four with 1:20 left, and didn’t get over the hump. Johnson missed a corner three on the next trip, Bucks guard Jrue Holiday scored a finger roll at the other end and Kris Middleton iced at the line.
The Raptors were without OG Anunoby due to a calf strain, robbing Toronto of the one defender they have best-suited to match-up with the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo and their hottest perimeter shooter. The Raptors more or less sawed off their match-up against the seven-foot force of nature. Antetokounmpo didn’t dominate them -- his 24-point, 18-rebound, nine assist line was standard issue for him -- but they didn’t slow him down much either although a committee of Pascal Siakam, Johnson and a fair bit of zone defence tried their best.
Anunoby’s spot in the starting lineup was taken by Norm Powell and the Raptors' sixth man proved again that starting seems to suit him well as he finished with 26 points on 13 shots.
Unfortunately, the more traditional starters didn’t have great nights. Lowry finished strong with 14 fourth-quarter points on his way to 21 for the game but Fred VanVleet was 3-of-17 and Pascal Siakam finished with 11 points and nine rebounds and was generally hard to find. After a promising first quarter, the Bucks held Toronto to 35 per cent from the second quarter on. The Bucks weren’t much better -- shooting just 43 per cent for the game -- but Milwaukee was just a little bigger, better and stronger as they owned the offensive glass (14-10), were better in the paint and shot 26 free throws to just 12 for Toronto -- including none in the fourth quarter -- basically rendering a spirited Raptors effort meaningless.
The loss dropped Toronto to 7-10 as they continue to try and work their way into a playoff spot. The Bucks improved to 11-6 in a season that will only be a success if they make it all the way to the NBA Finals and win. The Raptors are still trying to determine what a fair standard would be, beyond simply getting into the post-season.
The loss took the shine off an important statistical achievement for Kyle Lowry who joined DeMar DeRozan and Chris Bosh as the only Raptors to score 10,000 points with the franchise as -- needing just two points -- he pulled up for an above-the-break triple on his first touch.
If the Raptors continue along their middling ways it’s fair to wonder how many more points the franchise icon will score as a Raptor, given he’s a free agent next summer and could be a coveted trade chip as the season progress and Toronto doesn’t.
The Bucks have bigger plans. After consecutive post-season flameouts following posting the NBA’s best record -- blowing a 2-0 lead against the Raptors in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2019 and then being swept in the second round by Miami -- the Bucks understandably aren’t going to be too caught up with their regular season record. This time last season the Bucks were 13-3 on their way to a 24-3 start that did nothing for them, in the final tally.
They are championship bound or bust.
Milwaukee didn’t stand still in the off-season. They mortgaged their future to add Jrue Holiday to pair Antetokounmpo with an elite play-making point guard and they’ve tweaked their ‘five-out’ offence to make sure they have a player occupy the ‘dunker’s spot’ -- the area along the baseline on either side of the basket -- to make it more difficult for teams to line up a wall of defenders between the two-time defending MVP and the rim when he’s in freight-train mode.
So far so good as they have the NBA’s best attack, scoring 117.9 points per 100 possessions, even with Antetokounmpo taking a small step back, statistically, though his 27 points, 10.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists line will keep him in the MVP conversation all season.
“They are very similar. I don't know, maybe a little more size and bulk?” was Raptors head coach Nick Nurse’s pre-game scouting report. “Like, sometimes I look out there and they look really, really big to me. (Bobby) Portis is big and strong, along with (Brook) Lopez and Giannis and that kinda crew. But very similar. Deep, deep, deep, tons of athletic bouncy guards, bunch of shooters. Pretty similar.”
Whether it’s their size or their approach, the Bucks have been more active on the offensive glass too, standing fifth in offensive rebound percentage compared with 28h last year.
The Raptors got a taste of it in the first half as Milwaukee jumped out to a 63-54 lead in part because the Bucks had a 10-6 edge in offensive rebounds for a 16-7 edge in second-chance points and a 24-16 advantage in points in the paint.
It offset a red-hot start by Toronto as they hit six threes in the first quarter and racked up 10 assists on 13 field goals -- seven of the helpers from VanVleet on his way to 10 -- as the two teams were tied 33-33.
The Bucks’ defence isn’t yet what it has been in previous years -- they are camped at 11th in defence rating compared to being first last season -- but they had plenty to throw a cold blanket over the Raptors in the second quarter as Toronto was just 6-of-22 in the period and fell behind when the Bucks closed the half on a 21-7 run.
To Toronto’s credit, the Raptors kept at it. After falling behind by as many as 11 in the third quarter the Raptors began inching their way back into it, the spark finally coming from their second unit -- and if you had Yuta Watanabe and Johnson helping lead a comeback against the Bucks back in training camp, good for you, but that’s what happened as Toronto finished the quarter on a 9-0 run to cut Milwaukee’s lead to one and took the lead on a floater in the lane by Watanabe with a minute gone in the fourth quarter.
But they couldn’t build on it and the Bucks eventually brushed them aside. What that says about where the Raptors stand in the East is probably too early to determine, but if Toronto is looking for signs that they belong among the Eastern Conference elite, they’ll need to keep searching.
