We head into Week 13 on a heater! We’re feeling confident after going a stellar 3-0 for plus-3.00 units last week. We’re also 7-2 combined over the past three weeks, so hopefully we can continue to stay hot this week. I’ve done all the work for you here in case you’re thinking about throwing down a little cheese on your NFL Sunday.
Here are some players I’ve identified that could be profitable for you.
Record to date for the 2021 NFL season: 19-17 (-0.55 units)
Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction and are current as of the time of publication.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals 1 p.m. ET
Wager to watch: RB Joe Mixon total rushing yards (Over 88.5 -120, Under 88.5 -120)
The Bengals gun for their third straight victory as they host the Chargers at Paul Brown Stadium today. Cincinnati and Los Angeles are both fighting for a playoff spot in the AFC, but we want to talk about Joe Mixon’s total rushing yards prop.
In back-to-back wins, Mixon has been running all over opposing defences. Cincinnati’s bell-cow racked up 288 rushing yards on 58 carries (4.97 yards per carry) against the Raiders and Steelers. Volume hasn’t been an issue at all for Mixon, who has exceeded 30 touches over his past two games. The 24-year-old running back also shines when the temperature drops. Mixon has notched 13 career 100-yard rushing games, 10 of them have come in November and December. The advanced metrics have also been rock-solid for Cincinnati’s No. 1 running back. Mixon has averaged 2.8 yards after contact and 62.6 per cent of his yards are after contact which are both well above league average.
The Chargers, meanwhile, have been a turnstile against the run this season. Los Angeles is dead last in the NFL by giving up 145.3 rushing yards per game. The Bolts are even worse on the road. L.A. has been gashed for an average of 164.4 rushing yards away from SoFi Stadium which ranks bottom of the league.
Has Los Angeles improved at all against running backs lately? Slightly! Over their past seven games, the Chargers have coughed up 4.46 yards per carry to RBs, good for 23rd in the NFL over that time span. The Chargers have also allowed 879 rushing yards to running backs over the past eight weeks which is tied for last in that frame.
Pick: With the amount of volume that Mixon is getting lately and the fact that the Chargers haven’t been able to slow down running backs at all this season, ride the hot hand! I feel like oddsmakers have yet to adjust to Mixon, so take his total of 88.5 rushing yards to go OVER at -120.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans 1 p.m. ET
Wager to watch: RB Jonathan Taylor total rushing yards (Over 105.5 -120, Under 105.5 -120)
The Colts have won five of their last seven overall, while the Texans are looking to play spoiler as they host Indianapolis at NRG Stadium in this AFC South showdown today. The Colts smoked Houston 31-3 in Week 6 behind Jonathan Taylor, so we want to break down if he can go over his total rushing yards prop again.
Taylor had 145 yards rushing on just 14 carries and two scores in that first meeting with Houston this season highlighted by an 83-yard scamper. He is averaging a robust 5.77 yards per rush this season with 10 runs that have exceeded 20 yards.
Let’s dig into some advanced numbers, shall we? Taylor is averaging an eye-popping 3.3 yards after contact, and his 16.7 per cent broken-tackle percentage are above league averages. The 22-year-old is getting 20.4 touches per game and is on the field for 63.77 per cent of Indy’s snaps on offence.
The Texans have been riding the struggle bus this season on run defence. Houston is 31st in the NFL by surrendering 135.6 rushing yards per game. The Texans are a little better at home by giving up 128.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks 27th in the league.
To quote Janet Jackson’s hit song from the 1980’s "What Have You Done for Me Lately", the answer is not much when it comes to the Texans’ run defence. Houston has allowed 4.70 yards per carry and 865 rushing yards to running back – 27th and 28th respectively over the past eight weeks in the NFL.
Pick: Houston continues to show that they can’t slow down running backs this season. Taylor has feasted on the Texans in three career games by running for 319 yards combined. I’m not crazy about taking such a high rushing total, but I don’t think the Texans will have an answer for the NFL’s leading rusher. Take Jonathan Taylor’s total of 105.5 rushing yards to go OVER at -110.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers 4:25 p.m. ET
Wager to watch: QB Lamar Jackson total rushing yards (Over 63.5 -120, Under 63.5 -120)
The Steelers and Ravens will renew their rivalry at Heinz Field in this pivotable AFC North battle today from Pittsburgh. Baltimore has won 12 of their past 13 December games, but we want to zero in on Lamar Jackson’s total rushing yards prop here.
Jackson is fresh off a four-interception performance but racked up 68 rushing yards on 17 carries in last Sunday's 16-10 win over Cleveland. The 24-year-old quarterback is averaging 5.75 yards per rush this season with five runs that have exceeded 20 yards. Jackson has totaled 30 carries for 135 rushing yards in his past two games against Pittsburgh.
This matchup is more about how bad the Steelers have been lately, and less about the 2019 NFL MVP. Pittsburgh has allowed a staggering 180.5 rushing yards per game over the last four weeks. It is 28th overall against the run by giving up 133.1 rushing yards per game. The Steelers have also coughed up 127.2 rushing yards at home this season, which ranks 26th in the league.
‘The Steel Curtain’ has been more like butter in the hot sun when it comes to slowing down mobile quarterbacks. Pittsburgh is giving up an NFL-high 7.14 yards per carry to QBs over the past eight weeks. The Steelers have surrendered 157 rushing yards to quarterbacks in the previous two months, which is 25th in the league.
Pick: The Steelers are a mess lately and can’t stop the run. Lamar Jackson should be able to run wild on Pittsburgh’s defence and might use his legs a little more after that four-interception performance last week against the Browns. There is too much value here, take Lamar Jackson’s total of 63.5 rushing yards to go OVER at -120.
