NFL Week 3 Pick 'Em: Can Penix Jr. spark Falcons offence vs. Packers?

Two weeks into the NFL season, we're starting to get a clearer picture of where teams stand in the overall pecking order.

It is easy to overreact after one week, but Week 3 offers a better opportunity to separate what might be real from what might simply be early-season noise.

There are plenty of intriguing storylines across this slate of games, including a few divisional matchups and a few teams looking to avoid an 0-3 start.

Green Bay hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard through two weeks, but has done enough to get to 1-1.

Now, the Packers get set for their home opener at Lambeau Field, where they take on an Atlanta team with plenty of question marks after an 0-2 start.

The Falcons are hoping that the return of quarterback Michael Penix Jr. gets them going in the right direction. Green Bay will be looking to its run defence to keep Bijan Robinson in check, as it has allowed 174 yards on the ground (eighth in the league) and ranks second in yards per carry, permitting just 2.85 yards per carry. On top of that, the Packers have allowed just two 10-plus yard runs by running backs.

It is going to be tough to trust Penix Jr. to get back up to speed with the offence on a short week despite the Packers' inability to close out games.

Pick: Packers -4.5

Pittsburgh's offence has produced just 20 points through its first two games, and it's surprising to see Aaron Rodgers still standing after getting sacked four times against the Patriots.

It won't get any easier for the Steelers, who now face a Cincinnati defence that has been one of the better units in the league early in the season.

The Bengals haven't been nearly as convincing offensively, however. Joe Burrow and Co. haven't consistently generated the explosive passing plays we've come to expect, which could make it difficult to create separation against Pittsburgh.

Regardless, the Bengals defence is playing at too high of a level to think the Steelers can make this a close game.

Pick: Bengals -3.5

The Chargers are 0-2 and now have to travel to Buffalo to face a Bills team that has already shown it can score in bunches.

Not only does Buffalo have Josh Allen playing at an MVP level, they have established a clear home-field advantage at the new Highmark Stadium.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles has lost back-to-back games to teams that picked in the top three in this year's draft, scoring a combined 28 points.

The Chargers have the talent to be better than they currently are, but it'll be tough to flip the switch in this game.

If the Bills can avoid the kind of late-game defensive letdown that inflated Detroit's numbers last week, they should be able to create enough separation to cover.

Pick: Bills -7

If there was any doubt about whether the Chiefs could return to prominence, Patrick Mahomes extinguished it quite easily.

The three-time Super Bowl MVP has Kansas City's offence back on track with the help of Kenneth Walker in the backfield.

Miami's offence looks like it'll struggle all season, with back-to-back games with 13 points setting up for a miserable season on South Beach.

Even with the Dolphins at home, it's tough to trust them to score enough to stay within two scores of the Chiefs.

Pick: Dolphins +11.5

The Lions are still looking for their first against-the-spread win of the season and welcome a familiar face back to Ford Field.

Jets head coach Aaron Glenn takes on his former team and will need his defence to take its game to another level against the Lions.

New York's defence is second-best against the run, but can their offence keep up with Jared Goff, who had a productive game against the Bills?

The Lions defence remains a concern, particularly with injuries, so if the Jets can rely on the ground game, they can keep this a close game.

Pick: Jets +6.5

Carolina rolled over Atlanta thanks to five turnovers, but Panthers won't have as easy of a time running away with the game against Cleveland.

The Browns defence presents a much different challenge, particularly at home. The Browns also showed considerable improvement in a win over Tampa Bay after a rough opener.

The Panthers' offensive line has been dealing with injuries and lost Jonathon Brooks to a core muscle injury. That could make life difficult against a Cleveland front capable of creating pressure.

Carolina's offence will be a challenge for the Browns, tough. Cleveland will need to put pressure on Bryce Young if the Browns want to keep it close.

Pick: Browns +3

Jacksonville looked terrific in Week 1, but had a tougher time offensively against a the Denver defence last week.

They'll return home to play a Patriots team that has also has had its fair share of offensive issues.

Drake Maye hasn't put up big numbers and will have some question marks with A.J. Brown sidelined with an ankle sprain. However, this feels like a spot where New England can rebound.

Jacksonville's defence allowed Denver to move the ball through the air last week, and the Patriots got a bounce-back game from receiver Romeo Doubs, but will need more from other weapons to keep this close.

Seeing how the Patriots defence has limited opponents to 16 points so far this season, don't expect Trevor Lawrence to have an easy time making big plays.

Pick: Patriots +3

Seattle is showing that even without starting quarterback Sam Darnold, there is enough talent to support backup Drew Lock.

Darnold, however, seems to be on track to return for this one after getting hurt in the opener.

The Commanders struggled to contain Ceedee Lamb in Week 2 and face an even tougher matchup against Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

But seven points is still a substantial number, particularly with Seattle dealing with injuries in its secondary.

Even if Washington had Jayden Daniels, Seattle's defence is as good as any in the league and there isn't enough depth for the Commanders to overcome the loss of their franchise quarterback.

Pick: Seahawks -7

The Texans' Week 2 loss to Cincinnati was a major step back and disappointing given the fight they had against Buffalo in Week 1.

Houston moved the ball but couldn't capitalize in the red zone, while Indianapolis has quietly established one of the league's better rushing attacks through two games.

The Colts have played well at home, but the Texans will want to limit Jonathan Taylor's impact on this game.

C.J. Stroud has shown that he can move the ball but unless the Texans can finish drives, the Colts could have another close game as they did against the Chiefs.

Pick: Colts +3

After struggling badly in Week 1, Tennessee's offence gave Philadelphia a real scare.

Brian Daboll makes his return to MetLife Stadium as the Titans offensive co-ordinator so you have to think his unit will want to have a strong performance for him.

Tennessee was able to run the ball effectively against the Eagles and will look to lean on that approach again against a Giants defence that won't have Brian Burns.

With Jaxson Dart's injury putting a damper on the Giants' season outlook, Jameis Winston will need to turn things around after a rough performance in relief.

Pick: Titans +3

San Francisco has opened the season looking every bit like a contender.

Arizona has already demonstrated an ability to move the ball, but was beaten badly by a Seattle team without its starting quarterback last week.

The Cardinals offence had enough success against the Chargers in Week 1 to suggest this group can put pressure on San Francisco.

Pick: Cardinals +8.5

Minnesota's defence has been outstanding through two games, but the Vikings have benefited from some timely turnovers.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is coming off an ugly loss

The Buccaneers will likely try to keep the ball on the ground to prevent the Vikings from constantly rushing Baker Mayfield.

Tampa Bay should have opportunities to make enough plays and its defence will look to keep things close.

Pick: Buccaneers +1.5

The Saints are favourites for the first time this season after their impressive win over Baltimore.

Time will tell whether they can carry that momentum forward.

New Orleans has had problems stopping the run, and that's an area where the Raiders can test the hosts.

The Saints have been competitive against tougher teams, which should give them the edge in this matchup.

Pick: Saints -3

Baltimore's rushing attack has been one of the biggest reasons to like the Ravens early in the season.

Now, the Ravens get a Dallas defence that has not shown the improvement that was expected of them.

Lamar Jackson should be able to put pressure on the Cowboys with his ability to pass and run. Baltimore's ability to run the ball will allow the Ravens to keep the pressure off Jackson and Dallas' offence off the field.

The concern is Baltimore's secondary, which struggled in Week 2. They'll have to keep the dynamic duo of Lamb and George Pickens from making big plays.

Pick: Ravens -3.5

The Rams are coming off a Monday night game and now have to travel to Denver.

That's a difficult turnaround, particularly against a Broncos defence that should be considerably more challenging than the Giants.

Sean McVay's offence will need to establish the run since Denver has been much better against the pass than the ground game so far.

The Broncos should be able to control enough of the clock to keep this one close and will need to keep the Rams playmakers in check, especially if Puka Nacua remains sidelined.

Pick: Broncos +2.5

This one is all about the quarterback situation in Chicago.

The Bears have plenty of talent around the position, but uncertainty under centre makes it difficult to know exactly what their offence will look like Monday night.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, hasn't been particularly convincing defensively through two weeks. The Eagles struggled to contain Tennessee's rushing attack and could face another challenge against a Chicago offence that will be relying on the ground game.

Even with the Bears' up-in-the-air status, Philadelphia will want to show it is a better team than the one that barely beat the Titans.

Pick: Eagles -4.5

BetMGM lines are subject to change.