As sports betting grabs a stronger foothold in the life of your casual sports fan, new opportunities have arisen. You can bet on just about anything, from team and player point totals, to the winner of a coin toss in football. That includes the winners of the NHL’s major awards.
Full disclosure before I go any further here: I’m a voting member of the PHWA on these, and as such, won’t actually be placing a bet on anything discussed below. But with that, I can hopefully point you in the direction some voters (and one specific one!) are thinking heading into a new season.
This is setting up to be a strange year, which means we should open our minds to the possibility of some unusual results. What that means for gamblers is that there might be a chance to hit on a player with longer odds.
To wit: do I think Victor Hedman is going to win the Hart Trophy? I do not. Do I think it’s impossible that the best defenceman in the league has a great year on the best team in the league and puts up enough points to be in the conversation? Not impossible, no, and a $10 bet on Coolbet would win you $950 in return. How about Robin Lehner for that trophy? Not likely to win it! But a $10 bet on him would pay you $1,600, and over a four-month regular season could you see him being the No. 1 on one of the best teams in hockey and posting some wacky save percentage from which voters can’t look away?
Let’s get into these conversations more, looking at the following trophies: Hart, Norris, Calder, Richard and Art Ross. All odds via Coolbet.
HART TROPHY
Top-10 favourites including ties:
Here’s what I would do with your money: I would take the amount you’re comfortable spreading across awards trophy bets, then place it all solely on Connor McDavid +450 for Hart. Maybe you wanted to go $10 on each award, well, $50 on this bet wins you $275.
I’m of the opinion McDavid is the most talented player in the NHL. He’s in his absolute prime – you know that year on the hockey card where people go “oh wow he went off there, hey?” – and he’s on a good offensive team in a soft defensive division. There will be a lot of voting eyeballs on said division, too. I also think there’s some element of competitiveness there after his teammate just won the trophy. You know he’s not content ending his career with just one.
But, for conversation’s sake … things happen. McDavid’s been around five seasons, and has seen names like Taylor Hall, Nikita Kucherov and yes, Leon Draisaitl win the Hart. He’s been injured in the past. So a few other picks that I like? I swear they won’t all be favourites, buuut…
I voted for Nate MacKinnon to win last year, and voted for him the year Hall won. There’s a definite element with awards voting of players being “due.” MacKinnon, if anyone, is “due” his Hart Trophy.
Here’s a helpful graphic from @FauxCentre:
MacKinnon looked impossibly dominant at times in playoffs, and at +550 you’ve got a good chance of cashing in. Maybe take that McDavid bet and spread it across two names?
For longer odds picks I mentioned Hedman and Lehner, but hey: When was the last time you could get a rested and healthy Sidney Crosby at +2400?
NORRIS TROPHY
Top-10 favourites:
My vibes on general voter opinion is that a guy like Roman Josi was a compromise last year – voters didn’t just pick the guy with the most points (John Carlson), and Hedman was too far statistically behind for some (he was 10 back of Carlson, though I still voted for him), so Josi got it done. I don’t expect a repeat (and please don’t take “not the guy I’m picking to be the best in the league” as a slight. Josi is excellent).
Hedman’s the favourite for sure, but he’s not guaranteed to have the numbers like some others, so, worthwhile picks:
Alex Pietrangelo has public sentiment behind him, and is going to QB the power play for one of the best teams in hockey. If he has the numbers, the love for him is certainly there.
The boys who went No. 1 and No. 2 last season in Calder voting are in positions to get crazy points this upcoming season, and both are +1300 ($10 pays $140). Hughes is PP1 on a Canucks team that has great top-end talent, and should be able to score at 5-on-5, and we know how involved he is in the offence. Makar is so gifted, and that Avalanche team has so much firepower, he could put up gaudy totals on a great team.
On the “due” front, the noise is getting steadily louder around Seth Jones (+2100) and his partner, Zach Werenski, gets his share of love, too (+2400). You could do worse than a couple guys with longer odds too – if Shea Weber is healthy, and in a division with a ton of voter eyeballs, is +3100 worth a flyer? How about Morgan Rielly given the team he plays for, and finally having a D partner in TJ Brodie? He’s +2400.
CALDER TROPHY
Top-10 favourites:
I’m not going to pretend to know anything about junior hockey players or how they stack up against others from overseas, but I do know this: Igor Shestyorkin is extremely good and going to start at Madison Square Garden for a potentially improved Rangers team … but at just +250 behind that defence, I’m gonna pass. On the other hand, Ilya Sorokin could end up carrying the load for a good and defensively sound New York Islanders team, and +2900, boy, that’s a lot more appetizing, isn’t it?
My buddy Anthony Stewart can’t believe you can get Quinton Byfield for +4400, and really, there’s good value there. I’ll leave the rest up for your own personal taste aside from these two notes: to me the Alexis Lafreniere odds don’t pay enough for the risk, and Tim Stuetzle is unfortunately on a team that isn’t going to score enough. I’m not saying he can’t win it, but his team hampers my opinion of that bet more than the player himself.
ART ROSS TROPHY
Top-10 favourites:
Of course McDavid is the guy, but now we’re talking worse odds than the Hart Trophy numbers, with a payout of just +320. There’s not really a number I like at the top, so in looking for value, one name stands out to me: Mitch Marner at +1900. I think he’s a point-generating machine who was not very good (by the standards he’s held to) last season, and he was still well beyond a point per game, with 67 in 59 games.
Yes, the boys in Edmonton and Colorado are rightly favoured, but hey, Marner with his mojo back alongside prime Matthews with an improved D that can move the puck up the ice? In his fifth season in a division the Leafs are favoured? Where a $50 bet wins you $1,000? Worse bets have been made.
There are other names worth taking longer shots at too – some on the Penguins, Avs and Rangers, to name a few – but Marner’s my favourite balance of “has a chance” and “actually pays.”
And finally…
ROCKET RICHARD TROPHY
Top-10 favourites:
This is the year it’s Auston Matthews’ to lose. His name was left off the trophy by a goal last season, and this time around the two that beat him out have some issues. For Alex Ovechkin, it’s straight up age. The mid-point of the previous regular season was a year ago, and while you never want to bet against Ovechkin, at some point Father Time wins this war and he slows down even just a bit. It’s not insane to think he may only finish in the top-five in goals, and not with the most. David Pastrnak, meanwhile, had his hip repaired in September and will be slow to get started this season, missing some time in the early going.
While there’s a number of notable challengers, many of the other names are more prone to dish than Matthews. It just feels like this is the year he establishes himself as the game’s best pure scorer, provided he stays healthy. And +450 is just enough of a payout that I think it’s worthwhile.
So that’s it! (I won’t dive in on Vezina because goaltending is past my area of expertise.) I’m always interested to see what others think, and to hear if there are other bets worth discussing. Were there any odds above you think are worth a go?
