BROSSARD, Que. — No matter how many episodes of Seinfeld Martin St. Louis watched over the last 24 hours, it’s hard to imagine he ever really fell into REM cycle.
Following a fourth of four games in this series that ended with his top line shut out at five-on-five — a 3-2 loss to the Lightning that sent this series back to Tampa tied 2-2 — the coach of the Montreal Canadiens had to be feeling at least a little restless about how to navigate his toughest decision of the season.
While it may seem like an easy one to separate Juraj Slakfovsky from Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield for Game 5, it’s not. Not when they dominated their matchups in over 500 minutes together at five-on-five from mid-October to mid-April, not when they might be on the verge of breaking out, and certainly not when the series is even and there’s no reason to panic.
And St. Louis seemed anything but panicked when he was asked in several ways what he intends to do to spark Suzuki, Caufield and Slafkovsky.
“I feel like after I watch (a replay of Game 4), I’m gonna get steered,” St. Louis said during a Zoom availability Monday. “To me, it’s just the process. That’s what we’re doing today; we’re not emotionally making decisions. We’re going through our process, and we’re gonna get steered. And whatever it is, whatever it is — we’ll move forward with that with confidence based on our process. I would say we’re in the middle of that right now.”
What he and his coaches conclude is anyone’s guess.
They could opt for several changes, but there was barely an indication of any at Tuesday’s practice. And even if Slafkovsky (who briefly left the second period of Sunday’s game after taking the biggest hit of the playoffs only to return for the third), or Josh Anderson (who also left briefly before returning) had participated, we doubt St. Louis would’ve revealed all his cards.
What we did see should be taken with a grain of salt, considering Brendan Gallagher (who’s been scratched from all four games of this series) lined up with Suzuki and Caufield, while Patrik Laine (who’s been scratched for months) swapped in for Oliver Kapanen to take reps with Ivan Demidov and Alex Newhook.
We also saw Joe Veleno take some with Phillip Danault and Jake Evans, but we’re not sure St. Louis will bring him in for Game 5, either.
St. Louis did at least tweak his lines following Montreal’s loss in Game 2, and if he’s considering doing it again to spark some five-on-five offence from not only his top line but also his second one (currently consisting of Newhook, Demidov and Kapanen), he does have good options to turn to.
One could be as simple as flipping Slafkovsky and Newhook.
Slafkovsky spent over 350 minutes at five-on-five with Demidov and Kapanen this season, and it was an experiment that gave the Canadiens far more versatility and, as a result, made them that much more challenging to shut down.
That line was also Montreal’s second-most productive combination this season, notching 25 goals while allowing only 18.
Meanwhile, Suzuki and Caufield played just under 470 minutes at five-on-five without Slafkovsky and still outscored the opposition 34-20 while dominating shot attempts (489-432) and the expected goals (63 per cent).
“We know it works,” St. Louis said prior to the start of the series.
Whether he turns to it now, though, is anything but guaranteed.
Suzuki gave the impression after Tuesday’s practice that he’d prefer to remain with Slafkovsky and Caufield.
“Whatever Marty wants, but I love playing with those two guys,” the captain said. “We’ve had a lot of success and we kind of have everything that you want in a line. So, I think it’s just on us to step up a little bit.”
We know they can.
Suzuki had 101 points this season, Caufield had 51 goals, and Slafkovsky emerged as a dominant power forward with 10 more goals (30) and 10 more assists (43) than he’d produced in any of his three other seasons. They did most of it together, proving to be Montreal’s best combination at five-on-five, owning positive shares in shot attempts and expected goals while outscoring their opposition 33-14.
But Suzuki (four assists), Caufield (one goal, three assists) and Slafkovsky (three goals) have only come through on the power play against the Lightning, and the underlying numbers have only confirmed what the eye test has revealed — they’re not getting enough chances.
It’s the Lightning who have kept these three to owning just 43 per cent of the shot-attempt share. It’s the Lightning who have reduced them to just 35 per cent of the expected goals. It’s the Lightning who have out-scored them 4-0 at five-on-five. And if those trends continue, it’s the Lightning who’ll likely to return to Montreal with a chance to close out the series in Game 6.
Should St. Louis opt to keep his top line intact for Game 5, he’ll have to do more to help them. Even if he doesn’t have last change in Tampa.
Being visitors to the Bell Centre didn’t prevent Lightning coach Jon Cooper from getting forwards Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel and defencemen Darren Raddysh and Ryan McDonagh out on the ice against Suzuki more than any of their other players in Game 3. And in Game 4, Cooper was still able to get them out a ton against Suzuki despite separating Cirelli and Hagel.
St. Louis might have been comfortable with all that, but it’s unimaginable he wants to continue enabling that matchup as much as he has to this point.
Surely the coach would also like to see his second line produce something that would force the Lightning to pay closer attention to it.
Again, putting Slafkovsky there would be one way of doing it.
“He’s a big, skilled guy,” said Demidov, who benefited greatly from playing with Slafkovsky earlier this season. “Probably just find each other, and that’s how it works, I think. He’s a good puck carrier and obviously has good vision.”
Slafkovsky also has elite puck possession skills to extend offensive zone time, which is what Demidov needs to get more puck touches.
With more puck touches, the talented Russian can feel that much more comfortable executing the way he’s accustomed to.
Demidov hasn’t been getting enough of them, which is at least in part due to Newhook and Kapanen not managing the puck as well as they have at other points this year.
The other part is what St. Louis mentioned on Tuesday.
“I find they’re lacking balance on the ice,” he said, “and that’s making it harder for them to play in space.”
Suzuki, Caufield and Slafkovsky aren’t getting enough space, and you can see how it’s disrupting them.
“I think the first couple games, there wasn’t a lot of space early, and as the game goes on, once you get space, you feel like you don’t have that time,” said Suzuki, “so then you rush plays a little bit.”
Suzuki, Caufield and Slafkovsky have all done that throughout the series, although they did it slightly less in Game 4.
Perhaps St. Louis saw enough right there to keep them together and trust that they’re going to break out in Game 5.
Even if he’s leaning that way, you have to think Plan B, C and D have been running through his mind nonstop since Sunday’s game ended.
We’ll see what Wednesday’s game at Benchmark International Arena brings, knowing that it better be something different at five-on-five if the Canadiens are going to win it.
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