It was important for Kirill Marchenko to make a strong first impression.
On the eve of the season, the Toronto Maple Leafs traded their most valuable asset (Matthew Knies) for Marchenko, then signed him to a contract that will make him one of the NHL’s most well-compensated forwards starting next season ($12.5 million per year).
With the obvious caveat that Marchenko has played only five games, he has quickly made his presence felt with the Maple Leafs. Toronto’s new top-line left winger has four points and is doing what general manager John Chayka hoped he would.
“You’ve got to be able to dictate play consistently and sustainably if you do want to win the majority of your games, and (Marchenko) does that. He has a history of doing that,” Chayka said on Real Kyper & Bourne last week. “We felt like it (would make) a material difference to our outcomes to have another player like that.”
During Knies’ time in Toronto, he was seen as more of a complementary player who benefited from his association with Auston Matthews. Marchenko, meanwhile, demonstrated an ability to drive play at a high level while with the Columbus Blue Jackets.
In that regard, Marchenko has already made a positive impact for the Maple Leafs in the early going. Toronto has generated 57.5 per cent of the expected goals (xGF%) at five-on-five during Marchenko’s minutes, winning the inner-slot shot (8-3) and high-danger scoring chance (16-10) battles.
A lot of that has to do with Marchenko’s top-end speed and puck-transporting ability. He ranks among the league’s forward leaders in slot carries (22), rush scoring chances (nine) and 20-22 m.p.h. speed bursts (19) in all situations.
“A lot of times, a player can skate really well, they get the puck, and they slow down a little bit,” Maple Leafs coach Jim Hiller told reporters. “He’s one of those guys (who) seems to accelerate with the puck. I know he loves having the puck. … He’s a shot threat, and he distributes, so there’s lots there for us.”
Marchenko, a natural left winger who played primarily on the right side in Columbus, has settled into Knies’ old spot alongside Matthews and Jack Roslovic. It is hard to argue with the underlying results so far. They have heavily tilted the ice in Toronto’s favour, posting a 63.8 xGF% at five-on-five in 45:36 of ice time.
Granted, the Marchenko-Matthews-Roslovic line did not have its best stuff Thursday in Toronto’s 4-3 shootout loss to the Vegas Golden Knights. But the Maple Leafs’ top unit has out-chanced opponents 26-11 at five-on-five for the season, including 12-2 off the cycle.
Despite the territorial dominance, Roslovic’s goal Thursday was the top line’s first at five-on-five this season.
“I think that’s just the way it goes sometimes,” Hiller told reporters about the top line’s lack of goal production. “Those are really good looks. Some have been crossbars and posts and stuff on top of that. Those are just really good looks. Those will start to go. If you create those types of Grade-A chances, they’re going to go.”
Marchenko, who has scored once this season, is getting to the right part of the ice; more than 75 per cent of his total shot attempts have come from the slot (25 of 33). However, only 48 per cent of his slot attempts (scoring chances) have hit the net (12 of 25). Nine have been blocked. Last season, 57.1 per cent of Marchenko’s scoring chances hit the net, leading to 24 of his 27 goals.
Understandably, there is a ton of pressure on Marchenko to justify his contract before it even starts. Such is life in the fishbowl that is Toronto. So far, Marchenko’s process appears to be in good shape and should eventually result in more offensive production.
“Once he gets settled in and the more time we get together,” Matthews told reporters, “the chemistry is going to build more and more.”
