How the Leo Carlsson offer sheet changes everything in the NHL

Do you remember the last contract supernova? It was 276 days ago that Kirill Kaprizov extended in Minnesota for $17 million per year. That was huge, yes. But, somehow, it seems pale in comparison to the nuclear fallout dropping from Philadelphia’s Leo Carlsson offer-sheet, making him (for now) the league’s highest-paid player: $18 million a year.

Five years, not the current maximum of eight. A restricted free-agent, not unrestricted, unencumbered, as Kaprizov was-to-be. The Flyers (Daniel Briere, Keith Jones, Dan Hilferty, cap guru Barry Hanrahan); Carlsson and his father/son agents (Matt & Ryan Keator) rotated the league on its axis. 

Everything is different, now. 

I believe only once in the cap era has a player in his fourth season had the highest salary in the league. That was Mitch Marner, $16 million in 2019-20. Including his bonus, Carlsson will be at $21 million next season. That’s gobsmacking. 

I can only imagine the reactions in Chicago (Connor Bedard) and Columbus (Adam Fantilli). Those teams probably sent Brinks trucks to their houses. (I don’t believe for a second San Jose would ever let Macklin Celebrini reach next July first unsigned, and there’s a less-than-zero chance now.)

That might be the biggest change. Teams believed that, at this point in a player’s career, they had the hammer. That’s no longer the case. Now, it is: “What happened to Anaheim cannot happen to us.” 

If you have great players, sign them for as long as you can. The price never goes down. 

It’s also the fourth offer sheet in 23 months: Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, Barrett Hayton and Carlsson. (In the salary-cap era, it’s happened once before: five in 22 months from September 2006-July 2008 — Ryan Kesler, Thomas Vanek, Dustin Penner, David Backes and Steve Bernier.) 

And, don’t forget, Carolina successfully used the threat of one last summer to get K’Andre Miller. 

The league is changing at the ownership and GM level. The cap is rising. The cost of buying in is rising. The pressure to succeed is enormous. Free agency is less of a difference-maker than ever. Suddenly, the offer-sheet looks more attractive. The resistance to them is dropping. 

According to several sources, the Ducks and Carlsson’s representatives held a call hours before the offer sheet dropped. Anaheim’s offer was believed to be between $12-$13 million. No doubt the Ducks thought they’d come a long way. A few other teams said they heard the ask was in the $15 million range.

But, if you're going to get Carlsson, you must demolish Anaheim's offer. This isn't The Price Is Right, where you bid $1 more than the next-highest person.

Honestly, no one’s hugely shocked the Flyers did this. If Kaprizov hit the market, it was suspected they’d take a huge run at him. They’d been weighing the idea of an offer sheet for months. It is a return to their true Broad Street identity. Ed Snider would love this. 

But many other teams won’t. This will be inflationary. The rising cap is doing enough of that on its own, but now the top players will point to Carlsson and say, “I should be above that.” Those with comparable numbers at the same age will say, “I should be above that.” And those who are close will say, “Maybe I’m not at the same level, but if he’s at 18, I’m at 15.” 

And, at a time when players are boldly determining their futures, another, with the stroke of a pen, shook the foundation. And this wasn’t a US Olympian — it was a 21-year-old talented Swede. 

For players: a rising tide floats the biggest boats. For teams, this is a tidal wave.

• Years after he chose to accept five first-rounders from St. Louis for Scott Stevens, then-Washington GM David Poile said, if he could go back in time, he would change his mind and keep the Future Hall-of-Famer. 

I’ve never forgotten that. 

I also haven’t forgotten that, when Anaheim got the second selection in the 2023 draft, GM Pat Verbeek immediately told his staff Carlsson was their man. (Bedard went first.) This is his guy. 

Yes, this completely screws up the Ducks' salary structure. Yes, this puts them in a horrible bind. Verbeek is an outstanding judge of talent who expertly built a team that eliminated the two-time defending Western Conference champions in the first round of the playoffs.

But he just hit his first iceberg. (Every Western team should send bouquets to Briere.)

Cutter Gauthier is not eligible for an offer sheet, but he scored 41 goals. What’s he thinking now? Sharks (metaphysical ones, not the team) are swirling around another restricted free-agent, Pavel Mintyukov. Beckett Sennecke had a 60-point rookie season. Verbeek has carefully controlled their growth.

Now, he has to chart a completely new course. 

He warned everyone the Ducks would match any offer. That said, I have no doubt the number caught him completely by surprise. I’d bet Verbeek thought maybe 15. Maybe. But, if you’re going to do this, you have to do it in a way that you can actually get the player. I heard there was another team considering seven years at a $17.5 million AAV, and honestly, I believed someone would think about the max ($20.8 million). 

Maybe he calls other teams and sees what those four first-rounders can get him. But this is Pat Verbeek, one of the toughest players ever to put on an NHL uniform. Three-thousand penalty minutes; never saw him back away once. To say you’ll match any offer and then not do it puts a cataclysmic dent in his entire life philosophy. 

Couple other things:

• Saw reports that Claude Giroux was going back to Philadelphia. Not disputing anyone, just no confirmation as of Friday night. The Flyers were…a little busy. I do think Edmonton was one of the teams interested. 

Wonder if the Oilers look at Vladimir Tarasenko. Heard a few teams looked at him as things calmed down after free agency day one.

• St. Louis is another team that has taken a long look at Alexander Nikishin.

• Another situation to watch: Shane Wright.

The fourth-overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, Wright just completed his second full season, with 12 goals and 27 points in 74 games. As the trade deadline approached, his name was out there, particularly in Seattle’s attempt to land Artemi Panarin. (Panarin was laser-focused on Los Angeles, with many teams — not only the Kraken — unable to bribe him elsewhere.)

Wright’s still available, and there’s motivation to make it work, although disagreement on the commitment.

“I can confirm that we have had positive conversations with GM Jason Botterill, and he has agreed to move Shane this summer to a team in need of a top young centre,” Wright’s agent, Kurt Overhardt, said Wednesday.

Botterill would not comment. Other executives who’ve spoken to Seattle said there’s obviously an agreement between team and agent to work together, but the Kraken made it extremely clear they expect a fair price and won’t be pressured into anything they don’t want to do. In other words, they are making no guarantees. 

It’s supposed to be vacation time, but there’s plenty of business to be done. Add Wright to the list.

One pod to go (Monday). Then I’m going to try and give you a vacation from me.