EDMONTON — A stock Ken Holland line revolves around how much easier it is to go from 25th place to 12th place, than it is to go from 12th into the top five. This summer he is living that theory.
An Oilers team that moved from 25th to 12th to 11th place in the NHL standings these past three years has made huge regular season strides, yet done nothing in the playoffs. A 1-7 post-season record over that time, after two second-place finishes in its division, tells the tale of a club whose issues have graduated from massive and all-encompassing to elements more subtle.
Holland filled a need this week when he dealt for Duncan Keith to anchor his second defensive pair, and when/if he gets Adam Larsson signed, he’ll have a blue-line that stacks up pretty well. We predict that signing will occur shortly after the Expansion Draft, with Larsson doing his part to help his team acquire Keith and get through the draft without losing a key component.
Now, it’s on to the forward lines, where a lack of depth killed Edmonton in its four-game sweep at the hands of Winnipeg. And in goal, where nobody inside this organization wants to see the same tandem back for a third season. Not at an average age of 36 years old, between Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen.
So, where do we start?
Funny, Holland might be asking himself the same thing…
Zach Hyman or Jaden Schwartz?
Holland has enough cap space to make one expensive free agent move, and the plan is for that to be a top-line left winger for Connor McDavid. Hyman is target No. 1, Schwartz No. 2, and after that, it might be time to explore the trade market for a Jake DeBrusk, Rickard Rackell or perhaps even a player like Detroit RFA Tyler Bertuzzi.
Newly signed Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will inhabit the other top-six left wing position for the foreseeable future, while Jesse Puljujarvi is a fixture on the right side. That leaves two holes for legit top six wingers — one of each side — and right now the left side is Edmonton’s priority.
Hyman is seen as the right player for Edmonton: He has skill and can play alongside elite offensive players, but he is not a perimeter scorer, which the Oilers have in abundance. Hyman is seen as the exact type of responsible, close-in scorer needed to compliment a line with McDavid and a shooter like Puljujarvi.
The Wilcox, Sask. native Schwartz is seen as a less expensive alternative — a player who does everything well, but not one thing stellar — while a trade for DeBrusk is iffy because of his contract status. DeBrusk would be a popular acquisition as he was born and raised in Edmonton and his Dad Louie was an Oiler, but his Qualifying Offer after next season is lofty at $4.41.
And if a GM doesn’t tender that offer, DeBrusk becomes unrestricted. That’s Boston’s problem right now, and one another team will be wary of taking on.
It is more likely that Edmonton will be looking at DeBrusk as a UFA a year from now.
Depth of Talent
The Oilers simply can’t rely on McDavid and Leon Draisaitl as much as they have.
If this team is going to get over the playoff hump it needs to be able to win games when the Big 2 get shut down. Sure, it won’t happen every time, but the book on Edmonton is simple: Shut down 97 and 29 and you shut down the Oilers — period.
That puts Holland in the market for a third-line centre who can do all the things that expect of a competent 3C — win draws, kill penalties, check top lines — but generate some offence as well. Edmonton played raw rookie Ryan McLeod in that slot in the playoffs last season, and it wasn’t a fair ask of the 21-year-old.
So, who’s out there?
Well, Phillip Danault is the clear-cut favorite among free agent centres who can handle defensive responsibilities. But the same team won’t get Keith, Hyman and Danault. That’s a pipe dream.
Paul Stastny would work, but he is both 35 and coming off a $6.5 million AAV. After two stints with Winnipeg, if Stastny were to come North he’d be a viable option for Edmonton, but it seems a tall ask of a veteran American centre who likely has options south of the border.
An annual tout that comes up in these parts is former University of Alberta Golden Bear Derek Ryan. But he is likely to be left unprotected by Calgary, and as a Spokane, Wash., native there is a very real chance the Seattle Kraken make him an expansion pick.
Ryan Getzlaf is another name who would be awesome in this position. But make up a list of 36-year-olds who play an entire career in California, then move to the family up to the Edmonton tundra. It’s a mighty short list.
Clearly, Holland needs to fill this spot. Having McLeod and Jujhar Khaira as his Bottom 6 centres simply is not good enough.
Moving Mikko
Signing a 39-year-old Mike Smith isn’t a bad thing — as long as he has a partner who is up and coming, like a Chris Driedger, or Igor Shesterkin.
Smith’s numbers last season were Top 6 or 7 in the NHL. Sure, he’s old. But numbers are numbers, and he posted elite ones.
So another one-year deal would be acceptable for a player who has become a leader in Edmonton’s room. But there has to be movement away from Koskinen, a goalie many in the organization no longer trust, who makes a ridiculous $4.5 million thanks to the gift bestowed by outgoing GM Peter Chiarelli.
At worst Koskinen gets bought out, leaving Edmonton a cap hit of $1.5 million for the next two seasons. At best the final year of his deal gets off-loaded in a trade — the Oilers tried and failed at that in the Keith deal.
Either way, a tandem of Smith and a younger goalie works well. Smith and Koskinen — again — does not.
