OTTAWA — The lights are out figuratively — and literally — on the Ottawa Senators' free-agency foray.
That message was reiterated before and after a power outage that interrupted GM Steve Staios' free-agency press conference at the Canadian Tire Centre on Wednesday.
Touché.
It’s likely that we already know the composition of the 2026-27 opening-night Ottawa Senators, outside of Claude Giroux, though our gut says he’s moving on.
There’s been a lot of criticism from Sens fans, and we agree with much of it.
The Senators aren’t better than they were last season.
Sure, Staios’ nickname is “Steady,” but he’s beginning to test Senators fans' patience.
Losing the star and brand status of Brady Tkachuk, along with potentially not retaining local hero Giroux in a single off-season is a tough look.
But to replace them with talented youngster William Eklund and one-goal-in-his-final-37-games Andre Burakovsky, plus one of the worst backups in the league in Sam Ersson, is puzzling, to say the least.
“We've made it a habit of us trying to get out ahead of things, and not only finding value, but taking more of a swing on upside,” Staios said Wednesday about his moves.
It takes time to know if the imagined upside becomes realized potential.
In a summer poised for more blockbusters, a day after the Toronto Raptors made another huge bet on Kawhi Leonard for the second time, patience is out of style.
The Senators are a star or two away from being a contender; that’s why trading away Tkachuk last week was so painful. The Senators were close, and now they have taken a giant step back.
“It's been a week since I've made the trade on Brady, and you have the draft, and so I think it's a little early to make an assessment on where we're at,” said Staios. “We've put ourselves in a position now where we have great flexibility and draft capital.”
It might not be too early to assess.
No question about it, the Senators are a good team. With a few deft moves, they could become great. They likely need another two top-line wingers and another defenceman — unless Carter Yakemchuk breaks out. The problem is that the transition from good to great was hard enough before Tkachuk’s departure.
With an influx of prospects and picks from the Tkachuk trade, which Staios preached, the Senators have some ammunition, but why not use it if you’re about “winning now”?
Smaller-scale moves could have made a difference, but Staios sat idle. Maybe acquire restricted free agent Mavrik Bourque, 24, for a second and a third draft pick from capped-out Dallas, which is what Nashville did. That move would have been a smart bet, matching the timeline of Staios’ team, by acquiring another youngster in Bourque on top of Eklund, who is 23 years old. Ottawa definitely could have paid that price with the flexibility and draft capital Staios has effusively mentioned.
The good news is that in the next five years, with Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson, the Senators' floor will be high. Don’t expect horrific Senators teams as we did for almost a decade post-Erik Karlsson.
Many fans are groaning about the acquisition of Burakovsky, and we are too. However, for what it’s worth, we do believe other teams were interested in the Swede before the Senators swooped in.
Burakovsky is talented and had three 40-point seasons under his belt before he stalled dismally at the end of last season. Ottawa is betting on his upside.
But outside of Eklund and a smart re-signing of Jordan Spence, the Senators are no closer to a Stanley Cup than they ever were.
When you delve closer into the Ersson move, it’s puzzling why the Senators traded away a late-round pick for the soon-to-be restricted free agent, only for the Senators to make Ersson a free agent by not qualifying him and then sign him in free agency.
Plus, Ersson finished last in the NHL in goals saved above expected in 2024-25 and was fifth-worst last season.
So why Ersson?
Staios admitted that his biggest misstep last season was not bringing in a seasoned No. 2 netminder. That led to youngster Leevi Merilainen’s poor play almost sinking the Senators out of the playoffs until James Reimer and a rejuvenated Linus Ullmark saved their season.
Staios said he believes Ottawa’s excellent defensive system under coach Travis Green will allow Ersson to rebound.
Ottawa easily could have waited for Toronto to not qualify Ersson, permit him to become a free agent and sign him then.
Was it a heinous miscalculation? Not at all.
Is it a perplexing one? Yes.
The Senators believed Ersson would get more in arbitration.
"That could have been higher (than $2.2 million)," said Staios. "We hope we're going to get value in Year 2."
Interestingly, Staios said goaltender coach Justin Peters and co-ordinator of goaltending Maciej Szwoch pushed for Ersson. Staios believed he’s well-suited to making decisions generally, but, like the rest of us, he has admitted to not being a “goalie expert,” which we appreciate.
“I think I feel comfortable building out rosters, forwards, and defencemen … and yet with the goaltending, I don't have that area of real knowledge and expertise,” he said.
Furthermore, Staios expects Merilainen to return as the third goaltender with a new contract. Merilainen is the perfect example of Jekyll and Hyde goaltending: he had a great 12-game audition two seasons ago, only to fall off a cliff last season. Goaltending is the definition of an inexact science: just look at waiver claim Brandon Bussi winning the Cup in Carolina.
In the end, whether Ersson works out or not, taking a risk on a backup goaltender isn’t the end of the world.
As for the forwards, the news of the day was that the Senators signed extreme pest Nick Cousins to a two-year, $1.5875-million contract. The rugged checker is useful but not a needle mover at all.
Sticking with that theme, the Senators have almost more middle-six players than defencemen on their roster, including Ridly Greig, Fabian Zetterlund, Warren Foegele and Shane Pinto.
Giroux would be one of those middle-six players if he returns, and his decision looms large. The Senators have offered Giroux a contract, but he’s going to market.
“We've stated how much we want him back,” said Staios. “There's also a reason why I'm not active today. Obviously, that spot is reserved for him (Giroux).”
It’s never a good sign when a hometown hero goes to free agency. Giroux would be a massive loss on and off the ice, and in the PR department. But to Staios’ credit, his stated priority of not bringing “shiny new toys” is a smart one. It shouldn’t be about short PR wins on Canada Day but about long-term playoff wins.
“It's exciting on day one of July 1 to be able to try and add a player, but we also have the bigger picture in mind,” said Staios.
It’s smart not to splash on free agency, as most of the time teams overpay on free agents, mightily hampering their futures. When was the last time a team won the Cup because it won free agency?
But re-signing Giroux wouldn’t have been a reach because of his age and the term of the contract likely being short. We agree with the premise of keeping the powder dry and not splurging, but not in this context for Giroux.
If Giroux stays, he's another really good NHLer and adds needed experience for a team that just lost its leader in Tkachuk. But if Giroux leaves, it’s a massive hole in the locker room and on the ice. In essence, Giroux could be swapped for Burakovsky, which is a downgrade in Ottawa’s top six.
Giroux had more points than Burakovsky last season and is much better defensively. He wins draws while Burakovsky is an offence-only player.
That’s why, on the surface, all these moves by Staios have left much more uncertainty than certainty. In the past, we may not have agreed with every single move Staios made, but we understood the decisions. They were always sound asset management moves, easy to rationalize how they were more likely than not going to work out. That’s changed in the 10 days since Tkachuk left.
The Senators’ pathway to a championship seems bleaker and more likely to head back to the mushy middle as in the Karlsson era.
