In my Round 1 series preview, I noted how brutally hard predicting NHL playoff series can be, but mentioned I do have an 8-0 set of first round predictions in my past. This year I set the line at 5.5 correct and aimed to hit the over. Gonna start off with a quick pat on my own back, as I accomplished that, going 6-2. I’m greedy though, and thought I saw a path to another 8-0. My two misses both had leads in the third period of a game in which they could have eliminated their competition (Leafs and Penguins), but ultimately fell short.
Round 2 has less freebies, as we’ve been dealt four legitimately great matchups, where the biggest “favourite” feels like they’re about to be in for the fight of their life.
Speaking of said favourite…
Who: The team with expectations that’s never done it vs. the team without expectations that has.
What: One of two “How much do intangibles truly matter?” series where there seems to be a clear favourite, but the underdog is full of pedigree and experience.
Where: Opens in the Mile High City on Sportsnet
When: Begins Tuesday May 17, at 9:30 p.m. ET, alternates days
Why: Because the Avs fulfilled Darryl Sutter’s prophecy of giving their first round opponent a “waste of eight days” experience, and the Blues mucked their way through a hard fought series against a very good Minnesota Wild team.
Alright, the Avalanche are up against their biggest rival now … the second round. Three years ago they lost in the second round in Game 7 (San Jose). Two years ago they lost in the second round in Game 7 (Dallas). Last year they lost in the second round in Game 6 (Vegas). They’ve been good for years, but it’s on them to prove now that something is different.
I love this matchup for Colorado not because I think they’ll beat the Blues, but because if they want to go deep, they’re going to have to earn it the good old fashioned playoff way, and if that gets done, they should leave with real confidence. Beating the Blues will take blocked shots, hits thrown and taken, and injuries to be battled through.
What a spot for the Blues to be in. Nobody is picking them. They have depth scoring (with a ton of 20 goal scorers), a goalie who’s done it before in Jordan Binnington who was dynamite in the final three games of their series against the Wild, and experience. They can go throw their best punches with no pressure and see what lands. The onus is fully on the Avs.
With that, I don’t think it’s going to be easy for the team that I see as clearly better, assuming they stay healthy and the refs stay on the calls. That brings me to my prediction of…
Avalanche in 7
Who: A team built on stability and consistency, vs. a team that can be so wildly good and bad that they’re never not interesting.
What: A Flames team trying to win a Cup the classic “physical play and details” way, and an Oilers team going for a “McDavid goes all ‘LeBron James with the Cavs’ and drags an OK team super deep” type run.
Where: Let's get this rodeo started in the Saddledome
When: Opens Wednesday night and alternates days through the series
Why: Because Jake Oettinger eventually cracked, and Connor McDavid went bonkers in Round 1.
I see a bunch of ways this goes Calgary’s way, and only one it breaks for the Oilers.
The Flames offence should have an easier time against the Oilers than the Stars, as Edmonton gives up some chances and have a few D who are prone to The Great Mistake. Mike Smith can also turn ice cold, at times. And going the other way, the Flames are so good with their forechecking and defending, offence is super hard to come by against them, so it’s not going to be a fun series for the Oilers' depth scorers who aren’t generational superstars.
For Edmonton, McDavid just put up 14 points against two of the best defensive centres in hockey (Phillip Danault and Anze Kopitar), so he’s not worried about good defending. The Oilers path is that he and Draisaitl (who ends up feeling good enough to be his best self) do their thing, and Mike Smith gets super hot, which can also happen. That’s it. The Flames get like 40 shots a night, Smith is dynamite, and the Oilers PP with McDavid and Draisaitl cooks and scores enough to get it done.
The Oilers are no pushover, but I just see so many more paths for the Flames. Because of that, I’m going…
Flames in 6
Who: FLORIDIANS, that’s who, and also two of the best teams in the league.
What: The other “How much do intangibles matter?” series where there seems to be a clear favourite, but the underdog (Tampa Bay, by the betting odds) is full of pedigree and experience.
Where: In Florida, of course. Sunrise, to be exact.
When: Begins Tuesday night at 7:30 p.m. ET. Will take two days off between Games 2 and 3, and then will play a back-to-back before returning to alternating days.
Why: The Lightning pounded the hearts of Ontarians into flour, then baked it into a fresh loaf of bread that they ate with a smile, while the Cats got over their own first round hurdle and have confidence heading into Round 2.
The last time the Florida Panthers won a first-round playoff series, it was 1996. This year they had the weight of the Presidents' Trophy on them and went up against a Capitals team that’s built for playoffs, and they slayed that dragon. The talk around the team is that success has totally freed them up. They’re practicing looser and better, they’re fresh off a six-game series, and ready to roll.
The Lightning are fascinating, because I think we’ll see just how much gas is left in their tank. Are they able to just find the big plays in the biggest moments just because they’re champions, or will all this hockey (and some injuries like the one to Brayden Point) just be too much to overcome?
I think it’s Florida’s time. Tampa poured a lot into their Round 1 series, and weakness was evident. The Lightning’s best chance is that Andrei Vasilevskiy has one of those Hall-of-Fame series where the Cats' vaunted offence gets frustrated early, they push, and leave chances going back the other way.
Panthers in 7
Who: A much underloved team with skill and grit, and a surprising Rangers team that just won’t go away.
What: A team playing with house money, versus a ‘Canes team testing the St. Louis Blues' theory of “be good long enough and one year things should break your way”
Where: In the eye of the Storm Surge in Raleigh.
When: Starts Wednesday night at 7:00 p.m. ET and alternates days.
Why: Because the Penguins lost Crosby for a couple crucial games and never got their crease figured out, while Carolina may have escorted the “Perfection Line” core of the Bruins to the exits.
The Carolina Hurricanes have to be the best team that gets the least attention year in, year out. They’re not star-laden and sexy – though they do have some super-skilled forwards – they’re mostly built on a great D-corps and a work ethic instilled by a coach who played the same way.
The Rangers are more like the Oilers to me. When they’re good they’re awesome to watch, but there are lulls where the play just gets taken to them, and the onus shifts to “can they get saves?” The difference is, the Rangers have the upcoming Vezina Trophy winner, and they often do get the saves. That’s what makes them dangerous – because of Igor Shesterkin, they can still win when they’re not on.
Still, the Canes are just so complete, and even with question marks in goal (injury-related, mostly), if they play up to their own expectations, they’ll be awfully tough to put away. They’re too well-built and well-coached. With that, I see…
Hurricanes in 6
