UFC Cage Locks: Dern vs. Ribas rematch, anticipated debuts at first event of year

Following nearly a full month hiatus, the UFC is finally set to return to action this weekend with a Fight Night event taking place at the organization’s home base at the Apex in Las Vegas.

Popular strawweights Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas are scheduled to go head-to-head in a rematch five years in the making in the first main event of 2025.

Ribas won a three-round unanimous decision over Dern in October of 2019 and is favoured to emerge victorious a second time, this time over five rounds, despite the fact Dern has improved and is currently ranked No. 6 in the 115-pound division compared to Ribas who sits as the No. 8 contender.

The 14-bout card also features the anticipated UFC debuts of recent Dana White’s Contender Series winners Austin Bashi, Jacobe Smith and Marco Tulio, plus the return of unbeaten prospects Magomed Gadzhiyasulov and Nurullo Aliev.

Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one favourite, one underdog, one dart throw wager and one best bet that will also combine to form a three-leg Cage Locks parlay.

Each will place $100 fantasy dollars on their four predictions and the records will be tracked throughout the year.

(REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE)

For the favourite, they will select a fighter they think will win that has odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

An underdog is any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

The dart throw selection can be any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

The best bet, or Cage Lock, is the pick they deem to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

In 2024, the trio clawed back from a rough start to the year to finish in the green with a plus-.500 record by the end of December after 42 UFC events – a 23-19 record with fantasy winnings of $29.68 fantasy bucks.

Aaron had the best overall win/loss record last year when you include his parlay pieces, finishing in first or second place in every category, and he led the way with the most correct dart throw prop bet predictions.

Dan had the best record picking favourites finishing way ahead of the pack with an impressive 29-13 record and that was with the favourite limit being -200, not -300. Aaron (24-18) and Mike (21-19-2) also finished above .500 but they were in the red while Dan was more than four units in the green.

Mike, despite gaining a reputation for being a regular parlay saboteur, ended up having the most profitable year overall. He was the closest to .500 on underdog picks, although all three ended the year with negative records, and he hit big on several dart throws with Max Holloway’s late KO of Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 being the best bet of the year.

Two fighters scheduled to compete Saturday failed to make weight Friday at the official weigh-in. Tulio’s opponent, Ihor Potieria, missed the non-title middleweight limit by two pounds and Jose Johnson missed the non-title flyweight limit by 2.5 pounds ahead of his scheduled bout with Felipe Bunes.

Potieria is a repeat offender on missing weight and was fined 25 per cent of his purse. Johnson was fined 20 per cent of his purse but both matchups will proceed at catchweights.

With all that in mind, below is the UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 bout order and full predictions.

MAIN CARD

-- Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas

-- Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Carlston Harris

-- César Almeida vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan

-- Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov        

-- Christian Rodriguez vs. Austin Bashi

-- Punahele Soriano vs. Uroš Medić

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Jose Johnson vs. Felipe Bunes

-- Marco Tulio vs. Ihor Potieria

-- Thiago Moises vs. Trey Ogden

-- Preston Parsons vs. Jacobe Smith

-- Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Nicolle Caliari

-- Magomed Gadzhiyasulov vs. Bruno Lopes

-- Fatima Kline vs. Victoria Dudakova

-- Joe Solecki vs. Nurullo Aliev

AARON'S PICKS

Best bet: Fatima Kline to win outright -1000
Favourite: Amanda Ribas -192
Underdog: Christian Rodriguez +220
Dart throw: Carlston Harris by Submission +450

Fatima Kline is an overwhelming favourite for a reason, despite falling short in her UFC debut, she was fighting up a weight class and I believe at strawweight, she will emerge as a contender.

The main event is a rematch of a lopsided fight from several years ago where Ribas handed Dern her first loss and I do not believe that Dern has narrowed the gap enough to defeat Ribas just yet.

Christian Rodriguez has been a prospect killer and I love him here as an underdog against a debuting Bashi and in the co-main event, Harris has been able to find submissions using his length and if this gets to the ground, I think he can find one against Ponzinibbio.

DAN'S PICKS

Best bet: Nurullo Aliev to win outright -650
Favourite: Amanda Ribas -192
Underdog: Punahele Soriano +185
Dart throw: Thiago Moises by submission +500

Trying to keep it simple to start 2025 and get some early wins in the bag before making reckless picks on house money. I think Aliev and Ribas will cruise to victories on Saturday. Soriano and his new-found confidence will be a tough test for Medic. Anything other than near-perfection from the Serbian on Saturday could lead to an upset on scorecards.

Without looking at the odds, I immediately thought Moises by submission in this bout. His BJJ expertise always makes it a possible path to victory and the fact he hasn't won this way in a while has the odds makers sleeping on this probable outcome.

MIKE'S PICKS

Best bet: Jacobe Smith to win outright -500
Favourite: Santiago Ponzinibbio -145
Underdog: Chris Curtis +185
Dart throw: Amanda Ribas by submission +1000

At the risk of mushing arguably the top prospect from the most recent season of DWCS, Smith is one of my welterweights to watch this year and a fighter who already has a contender’s mindset regardless of his relative lack of experience. I don’t see him getting caught in a submission by the talented Parsons.

And even though the first main event of the year is projected to go the distance, with Dern being a multiple-time world grappling champion who has never been submitted in MMA, plus the fact Ribas hasn’t won via sub since she tapped Paige VanZant in 2020, why not begin 2025 with an unlikely highlight finish? Ribas using her judo to gain top position and side control and wearing Dern down for an eventual armbar or other submission opportunity is something I can envision happening over the course of five rounds.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY

Three legs: Fatima Kline + Nurullo Aliev + Jacobe Smith 
Parlay odds: -191 (to win: $52.30)
Record in 2024: 23-19 (streak: W2)
Winnings in 2024: +$29.68 (on $100 bets)

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)