UFC Cage Locks: Is Belal Muhammad undervalued vs. Gabriel Bonfim?

Belal Muhammad wants to prove he’s still among the top welterweights in mixed martial arts.

To do that, the former welterweight champion will need to snap the impressive win streak of ascending contender Gabriel Bonfim.

The pair of 170-pounders headline a UFC Fight Night card Saturday in Las Vegas at the Meta Apex.

Muhammad, 37, was a UFC champion 13 months ago but enters this matchup on a two-fight losing streak after losing the belt to Jack Della Maddalena via five-round decision last May and dropping a three-round decision to Ian Machado Garry in November.

Bonfim, 28, has gotten his hand raised four consecutive times and is coming off a highlight-reel knockout of Randy Brown in November in the Apex in his first UFC main event.

Brazil’s Bonfim enters his second main event as a slight underdog to the former titleholder. It is also the first time during his UFC tenure that Bonfim is a listed underdog before one of his fights.

Muhammad, who represents both Chicago and Palestine, has been the listed underdog in six of his past seven appearances and the lone time he was favoured he ended up losing to JDM.

Both Muhammad and Bonfim weighed 170.5 pounds on Friday at the official weigh-in. All non-title matchup are given a one-pound allowance so they each stepped onto the scale with a half-pound to spare.

Saturday’s 12-bout lineup also features No. 4 middleweight contender Brendan Allen taking on unranked striker Edmen Shahbazyan; No. 15 lightweight Fares Ziam faces Tom Nolan; 21-year-old Santiago Luna steps up on short notice to face Bryce Mitchell; Iwo Baraniewski looks for a ninth consecutive first-round victory when he meets fellow 205-pound knockout artist Junior Tafa.

Below is the projected bout order for UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim plus full predictions. Spoiler alert: our panel members are all in agreement on which fighter they each think will emerge victorious in the main event.

MAIN CARD

-- Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim

-- Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan

-- Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan

-- Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna

-- Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa

-- Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis

-- Bruno Silva vs. Edgar Chairez

-- Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler

-- Jordan Leavitt vs. Joanderson Brito

-- Jeisla Chaves vs. Yuneisy Duben

-- Ketlen Souza vs. Ariane Carnelossi

Ahead of each UFC event in 2026, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Barniewski vs. Tafa does not go distance -1000

Favourite: Belal Muhammad -115

Underdog: Edgar Chairez +115

Dart Throw: Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO +650

Muhammad is dramatically undervalued in this spot. Historically, Bonfim’s cardio has dropped off a cliff in the third round and with this fight scheduled for five rounds against Muhammad, who has not been stopped inside the distance in nearly 10 years, I think that Muhammad is live to secure a late stoppage. … Chairez is a surprising underdog against Silva. Both are aggressive fighters, but I believe that Chairez is more skilled. … For my lock, Barniewski and Tafa has very little chance of seeing the scorecards. I do not think that either is built for that sort of fight and when you put them together, the likelihood of a decision is extremely low.

DAN'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Marcus McGhee -450

Favourite: Belal Muhammad -115

Underdog: Jordan Leavitt +155

Dart Throw: Cachoeira vs. Chandler ends in submission +450

Marcus McGhee would be an even bigger favourite if he wasn’t coming off a loss to Petr Yan in his only bout in 2025. Prior to that, McGhee was running through the division putting guys to sleep by strikes or strangle. I expect him to bounce back this Saturday with a routine win and re-establish himself as a force in the bantamweight division. … Last May, Belal Muhammad was defending the welterweight title in Montreal. A little more than a year later he finds himself on a two-bout losing streak and at a tipping point in his career. Like McGhee, I think we see a bounce back performance from ‘The Bully’ and he will quickly remind everyone just how good he is when he is able to execute his game plan.

I think Jordan Leavitt could potentially cause an upset against Joanderson Brito. The two appear to be evenly matched but Leavitt is coming off an emphatic win over rising prospect Yadier del Valle who was previously undefeated. I’ll pounce on the underdog here and wouldn’t be surprised if this is closer to a pick’em by the time the bell rings. … There’s not an overwhelming amount of evidence to suggest that either Chandler or Cachoeira can pull off a submission win here. I just think this particular clash of styles coupled with Cachoeria’s unpredictability makes this is worth punt. Chandler does have a submission win on her resume but is equally inconsistent and I think both fighters have a realistic path to victory by submission.

MIKE'S PICKS

Cage Lock: Iwo Baraniewski to win -350

Favourite: Belal Muhammad -115

Underdog: Edmen Shahbazyan +165

Dart Throw: Bruno Silva to win by rear-naked choke +750

It’s entirely possible this main event matchup will show us that time has finally caught up to Muhammad at age 37, yet at the same time it could confirm that Gabriel Bonfim is simply not ready to overcome top-10 contenders at 170 pounds let alone a recent former champion. Unless he can rock Muhammad with a big punch or knee up the middle, like he used to finish Randy Brown, I see Belal taking control of this matchup and the drastic disparity in high-level experience will be evident throughout the matchup. The longer the fight goes, the more Muhammad should thrive.

As long as Baraniewski doesn’t completely forgo defence and leave himself open to absorbing Junior Tafa’s punches, like he did during his insane brawl with Ibo Aslan in December, I see the unbeaten rising Polish star simply having way more paths to victory. Wouldn’t surprise me if we finally see some of his judo skills put to use and maybe even see him go for a submission. … Silva is an underrated flyweight even at age 35 with some nice back takes and when he does win by submission he tends to have a knack for finding the back and securing a rear-naked choke. … On paper, the co-main event is a terrible style matchup for Shahbazyan considering Allen’s grappling ability and the fact Shahbazyan has been dominated on the ground several times in the UFC. But Shahbazyan also trains out of Xtreme Couture and Allen’s two stoppage losses in the UFC were to Xtreme Couture teammates Sean Strickland and Chris Curtis. Allen’s fight IQ is not his biggest strength and Shahbazyan is live for a finish for as long as this fight stays on the feet.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY

Three legs: Barniewski/Tafa ends inside distance + McGhee + Baraniewski

Parlay odds: -137 (to win: $72.85)

2026 STANDINGS AFTER 17 EVENTS

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 

2026 record: 8-9 (W3)

2026 winnings: -$180.45 (on $100 bets)

AARON'S RECORDS/TOTALS (34-34, +3.74 units)

Cage Lock: 11-6 (-$387.92)

Favourite: 11-6 (+$17.20)

Underdog: 8-9 (+$195)

Dart throw: 4-13 (+$550)

DAN'S RECORDS/TOTALS (35-32-1, -0.80 units)

Cage Lock: 16-1 (+$167.85)

Favourite: 12-5 (+$96.76)

Underdog: 5-11-1 (-$395)

Dart throw: 2-15 (+$50)

MIKE'S RECORDS/TOTALS (32-34-2, -8.19 units)

Cage Lock: 14-3 (+$77.57)

Favourite: 11-6 (+$142.74)

Underdog: 7-9-1 (+$560)

Dart throw: 0-16-1 (-$1,600)

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)