The UFC returns to Brazil this weekend with former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira looking to get back into the win column in front of the home crowd in Rio de Janeiro.
Oliveira is set to face Mateusz Gamrot in a five-round main event where Oliveira will be looking to bounce back from a knockout loss to Ilia Topuria.
The former lightweight champion has never lost when fighting in his home country and is a slight favourite heading into the weekend.
Gamrot accepted this matchup on short notice after Oliveira's original opponent, Rafael Fiziev, withdrew due to an injury.
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UFC Rio also features former flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo taking on the streaking Montel Jackson in a bantamweight contest, Joel Alvarez moving up to welterweight to face Vicente Luque, plus the anticipated debut of touted jiu-jitsu star Beatriz Mesquita, who faces Irina Alekseeva in the preliminary card.
A heavyweight bout between Valter Walker and Mohammed Usman was cancelled on Friday after Usman withdrew from the matchup hours before the official weigh-in.
A scheduled bantamweight matchup between Luan Lacerda and Saimon Oliveira was changed to a catchweight after Oliveira missed weight by a whopping eight pounds.
Below is the projected bout order and full predictions for the card:
MAIN CARD
-- Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot
-- Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson
-- Vicente Luque vs. Joel Alvarez
-- Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto
-- Ricardo Ramos vs. Kaan Ofli
-- Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell
PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Jafel Filho vs. Clayton Carpenter
-- Vitor Petrino vs. Thomas Petersen
-- Beatriz Mesquita vs. Irina Alekseeva
-- Lucas Rocha vs. Stewart Nicoll
-- Julia Polastri vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
-- Luan Lacerda vs. Saimon Oliveira
Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.
AARON'S PICKS
Cage Lock: Oliveira vs. Gamrot ends inside the distance -227
Favourite: Charles Oliveira -110
Underdog: Deiveson Figueiredo +240
Dart Throw: Figueiredo by decision +450
I expect Oliveira to find a submission against Gamrot at some point in the main event, and my estimate would be by the start of round four. If it gets into the championship rounds, I think Gamrot could score a late finish, but I have a hard time seeing this go the full five rounds. … Figueiredo has a ton of value against Jackson, who has not faced anyone nearly as good as Figueiredo. I think that Figueiredo can outpoint him and win a decision.
DAN'S PICKS
Cage Lock: Beatriz Mesquita -650
Favourite: Ricardo Ramos -200
Underdog: Mario Pinto +110
Dart Throw: Vicente Luque +500
I like the chances of a Ricardo Ramos bounce-back victory on Saturday. His opponent Kaan Ofli is winless in the UFC, and that is unlikely to change with Ramos taking advantage of a significant height and reach advantage. … Mario Pinto looked amazing in his win over Austen Lane the last time out with a statement KO. Jhonata Diniz is a step up in competition and also holds a KO win over Lane in 2024. But Diniz has had mixed results lately, and I expect Pinto to be the aggressor in this fight, likely ending this one inside the distance, but an outright win at plus money is great value here. … When Vicente Luque is on his game, he is a dangerous fighter. His opponent Joel Alvarez has been on a path of destruction recently with three finishes in his last three fights, but Luque is a cerebral fighter who will show up with a clear game plan. If he can carry out that plan, an upset could be on the cards here. This number next to Luque almost seems like a typo. Keep an eye on this line prior to the fight as there could be even more value to be had.
MIKE'S PICKS
Cage Lock: Vitor Petrino -333
Favourite: Clayton Carpenter -125
Underdog: Stewart Nicoll -105
Dart Throw: Joel Alvarez Round 2 submission +700
Petrino looked great in his heavyweight debut last time out, and even though Peterson is a tough out, I think the Brazilian will be able to outmuscle his opponent en route to a win. … Based on how frequently Luque has been finished in recent years and Alvarez’s ability to get the stoppage, it’s hard not to go with the former lightweight contender to get the win up a weight class and he has more submission wins than knockouts in his career.
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: Oliveira vs. Gamrot inside the distance + Mesquita + Petrino
Parlay odds: +116 (to win: $116.12)
2025 STANDINGS AFTER 33 EVENTS
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
2025 record: 18-15 (W2)
2025 winnings: +$177.79 (on $100 bets)
AARON'S RECORDS/TOTALS (68-62-2, +17.83 units)
Cage Lock: 27-5-1 (+$41.24)
Favourite: 17-16 (-$698.10)
Underdog: 16-16-1 (+$940.24)
Dart throw: 8-25 (+$1,500)
DAN'S RECORDS/TOTALS (68-60-4, -10.33 units)
Cage Lock: 28-5 (+$48.26)
Favourite: 19-12-1 (-$231.86)
Underdog: 18-14-1 (+$940.24)
Dart throw: 2-29-2 (-$1,790)
MIKE'S RECORDS/TOTALS (54-74-4, -27.00 units)
Cage Lock: 23-10 (-$245.87)
Favourite: 18-15 (-$245.89)
Underdog: 12-19-2 (+$335)
Dart throw: 1-30-2 (-$2,535)
Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win, regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.
Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.
Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.
Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.
(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)
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